风险监测系统中实时风险模型研发及其应用初步研究

312Vol.31No.220116ChineseJournalofNuclearScienceandEngineeringJun.2011:20110413;:20110510:(2008CCD064P),ITER(2009GB101006,2010GB111004),(KJCX2YWN35,095CFR211):(1985),,,,顾晓慧1,2,王家群1,2,王芳1,2,汪进1,2,袁润1,2,李亚洲1,2,胡丽琴1,2,汪卫华1,2,吴宜灿1,2,FDS团队1,2(1.,230031;2.,230027):,,FDSRiskAngel:;:TL364:A:02580918(2011)02018005ApilotstudyondevelopmentandapplicationofinstantaneousriskmodelinariskmonitorGUXiaohui1,2,WANGJiaqun1,2,WANGFang1,2,WANGJin1,2,YUANRun1,2,LIYazhou1,2,HULiqin1,2,WANGWeihua1,2,WUYican1,2,FDSTeam1,2(1.InstituteofPlasmaPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,HefeiofAnhuiProv.230031,China;2.SchoolofNuclearScienceandTechnology,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofChina,HefeiofAnhuiProv.230027,China)Abstract:Theinstantaneousriskmodelinariskmonitorreflectsthepointintimeriskforawidevarietyofplantconfigurations.Theinstantaneousriskmodelwasdevelopedfromthemodelwhichreflectsthecurrentdesignandoperationofthenuclearpowerplantwithsomespecificprincipleswhichwerestudiedsystematicallyinthispaper.AnapplicationonaheavywaterpressurizedreactorshowsthattheprinciplesarecomprehensiveandtheinstantaneousriskmodelissuitablefortheRiskAngelwhichisarisk180monitordevelopedbyFDSTeam.Keywords:riskmonitor;instantaneousriskmodel(RiskMonitor,RM)(ProbabilisticSafetyAssessment,PSA)[12]PSA,,[3],,,,,FDS[48]RiskAngel[912]1(1a);,,[1314]:1)2),2,;,21/,:1),,2)2~4,2[15],:,,,22,,:1):;[16],,2),,,,23//,/181/,/:1),:,2),,,(HouseEvent,HE):1,A,B,2,11Fig.1Running/standbytrainsofbasicriskmodel2Fig.2Thenormalmethodofmodelingrunning/standbytrains1Table1ThetruthtableofhouseeventofnormalmethodHEAHEBAB10AB01:,,3,2AB1,AB1,4AB2,AB1,6,2/32,,,3Fig.3Themodelofrunning/standbytrainsafterimprovement2Table2ThetruthtableofhouseeventafterimprovementHEASHEBSAB01AB1018224/,,/,[17],,CP1CP2,TK1TK2,V1,4V1,V1InCP1V1TK2OutInCP2V1TK1Out,,V1,,4Fig.4Anexampleofalignment25,,,,,PSA[16],,:1)2),,,3):;;,:1),2),3(PDS,PlantDamageState)11[18]PDS0PDS1PDS2(SCD,SevereCoreDamage),,2,,:1)/;2);3);4)/:1)1115(/),2)90,2,/3),/,4)31,183(CoreDamageFrequency,CDF)[1920]:,,,SCD1007:PDS050,PDS1316,PDS2641,PSA,RiskAngel:,32,3,[2122];,,,3Table3TheresultoftheinstantaneousriskmodelapplicationCDF580875648.40E6781979017.14E64PSA,,RiskAngel,,,:[1],.[J].,2007,1:5459.[2]IAEATECDOC1106,LivingProbabilisticSafetyAssessment(LPSA)[R].August1999.[3].[D].,2010.[4]WuY,FDSTeam.ConceptualDesignActivitiesofFDSSeriesFusionPowerPlantsinChina[J].FusionEngineeringandDesign,2006,81(2324):27132718.[5]WuYican.ProgressinFusiondrivenHybridSystemStudiesinChina[J].FusionEngineeringandDesign,2002,6364:7380.[6]WuY,FDSTeam.ConceptualDesignoftheChinaFusionPowerPlantFDSII[J].FusionEngineeringandDesign,2008,83(1012):16831689.[7]WuYican,QiuLijian,ChenYixue.ConceptualStudyonLiquidMetalCenterConductorPostInSphericalTokamakReactors[J].FusionEngineeringandDesign,2000,5152:395399.[8]TaoS,WuA,WuY,etal.PatientSetupinRadiotherapywithVideobasedPositioningSystem[J].ClinicalOncology,2006,18(4):363366.[9],,,.[J].,2007,27(3):270276.[10],,,.[C].,,2008.[11],,,.[J].,2009,30(1):2630.[12],,,.RiskA[J].,2010,44(8):969973.[13],.[J].,1997,18(4):298302.[14],.[J].,1994,15(6).[15].[M].1,:,2004.[16]IAEAandOECDNEAWGRisk.RiskMonitors:TheStateoftheartintheirDevelopmentandUseatNuclearPowerPlants[R].NEA/CSNI/R(2007)12.[17].()[D].,2007.(192)1844,,;,,,;;,,,,,:[1]IAEAsafetystandardsforprotectingpeopleandtheenvironment:Ageingmanagementsfornuclearpowerplants[R].DS382,IAEA,May,2007.[2]IAEASafetyReportSeriesNo.15:Implementationandreviewofnuclearpowerplantageingmanagementprogramme[R].IAEA,1999.[3]IAEA.Safetyaspectsofnuclearpowerplantageing[R].IAEATECDOC540.1990.[4]IAEA.Pilotstudyonthemanagementofageingofinstrumentationandcontrolcables[R].IAEATECDOC932.1997.[5]IAEA.Assessmentandmanagementofageingofmajornuclearpowerplantcomponentsimportanttosafety:CANDUreactorassemblies[R].IAEATECDOC1197,Feb,2001.[6]U.S.NRC.Areliabilityphysicsmodelforagingofcableinsulationmaterials[R].NUREG/CR6869,2005.[7]EPRI.2003EDF/EPRICollaborationonLifeCycleManagementandNuclearAssetManagement[R].TR1008947,Dec,2003.[8],,,.[J].,2005,26(6):8789:115.[9]KaisaSimola.Reliabilitymethodsinnuclearpowerplantageingmanagement[D].HelsinkiUniversityofTechnology,Finland,May1999:17.[10],,.[J].,2009,12.(184)[18]AECL.ProbabilisticSafetyAssessmentReport[R].2003.[19]SevereAccidentRisks:AnAssessmentforFiveUSNuclearPowerPlants[R].NUREG1150,DEC,1990.[20]BreedingRJ.EvaluationofsevereAccidentRisks:SurryUnit1[R].NUREG/CR4551,3(1),SAND861309,Oct.1990.[21],,,.RiskA[J].,2008,28(2):176179.[22],,,.[J].,2011,31(1):7077.192