风险管理中的风险效应2行为决策模型及分析

20011010:100026788(2001)102000120821,2(1.,210096;2.):,,,,L:;;;:TU72:AaDecision2MakingModelIncorporatingRiskBehaviorunderProjectRiskManagementLIQi2ming1,SHENLi2yin2(1.SchoolofCivilEngineering,SoutheastUniversity,Nanjing210096,China;2.DepartmentofBuildingandRealEstate,HongKongPolytechnicUniversity,HK,China)Abstract:Thispaperadoptsanalternativeapproachtoinvestigateriskbehaviorthroughtheinvestigationofrishcharacteristic.Followingthereviewonriskcharacteristics,thisstudyestablishestheconceptofriskattractiveness,riskconstraintsandriskbalanceprocess.Theseconceptualdevelopmentsleadthisstudytotheestablishmentofrisk2behaviordecision2makingmodelwhichintegrateriskmanagementtechniquesandriskbehavior.Keywords:riskeffect;riskbehavior;decision2makingmodel;riskmanagement.1:,,L,,,,,,LLLeslie[1];Godfrey,[2];Flanagan(Brainstorming),(Treediagrams),(InfluenceDiagrams),[3],(Riskmeasurement),(Sensitivityanalysis),(Probabilityanalysis)(Simulationtechnique)[3-5]L,[6-10,16],,La:2000201211©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,L,,LAsAkintoye,[8]L[3],,,LL-,L2,[7,11]:;L,L,,,L,,,,,,,LL,[4,7,11,12],,L:1),,L,L2),,LL3),,,,L,,,L4),,,,,L5)L,L,,,LL6)L2200110©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,L[3,4,13]L,,L3,,LL311L,,L:,L,,,,L(,DRA,(1):(DRA)ö(A1)(A2)(A3)(A4)1,A1,A2,A3,A4Z(DRA),,,:DRA=fA(A1,A2,A3,A4)(2.1),Z:A1,A2,A3,A4,DRA;A1,A2,A3,A4,DRAZmax[DRA]=f(maxA1,maxA2,maxA3,maxA4)(2.2)min[DRA]=f(minA1,minA2,minA3,minA4)(2.3),,,,,Z,,,,Z312:,Z,Z,,,,Z,,,;,,Z3102©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(,DRC),(2):(DRC)(C1)(C2)(C3)(C4)2(DRC),:DRC=fc(c1,c2,c3,c4)(2.4),C1,C2,C3,C4,DRC;C1,C2,C3,C4,DRCZmax[DRC]=f(maxC1,maxC2,maxC3,maxC4)(2.5)min[DRC]=f(minC1,minC2,minC3,minC4)(2.6),,,,,,,Z,,,,,Z3.33,,;,Z,,Z,(B),3ZB,,Z,()Z,,,,Z3Z,,,,,2Z,,öö,,,Z3:4200110©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.DRADRC,AOB,,;DRADRC,CBD,,;DRA=DRC,B,Z,,,ZZ,,,ZDRE,0FDRCF1;0FDRAF1DRE=DRC-DRADRC=fC-fAfC,-1FDREF1DRADRC,AOB,-1FDRE0,,;DRA=DRC,B,DRE=0,,;DRADRC,CBD,0DREF1,,;DRE,,Z44(É);(Ê);OMZA1,A2,,An,DRA1,DRA2,,DRAn,DRC1,DRC2,,DRCnDRE(A1),DRE(A2),DRE(A3),,DRE(An)-1FDRE(Ai)F0,i=1,2,,n,;0DRE(Aj)F1,j=1,2,,n,ZDRE(Ai),Ai,:B1,B2,,Bn:DRE(B1),DRE(B2),,DRE(Bn):DRE(B)=min[DRE(Bi)]F0,1FiFnDRE(B),Z4411,,[3,4,13],Z,[3],5Z51)A,,,Z2)B,,,ACZ3)C,,Z5102©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.5412Z,,,,()Z6,7,8,Z676Z,,(A,B,C),,,Z,ZDRAADRCBDRCCZ7Z,,(A,B,C),Z,,DRACDRABDRAA.8,,BA,BB,BC,,,Z6200110©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.8,Rx:RAFRxFRC,,,:(A)(C),9BABDBCBEZXYZ,:9(DRE=0)1)Y,Z,(=),BYBZ,,,Z2)XY,,RxRY,,,Z,,,(RA),,Z,,,(RC),Z,,,Z57102©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,Z,,,,Z,,Z:[1]LeslieEdward.PracticalRiskManagementintheConstructionIndustry[M].ThomasTelford,1995,15-31.[2]PatrickSGodfrey.ControlofRisk-AGuidetotheSystematicManagementofRiskfromConstruction[M].CIRIA,1996,28-35.[3]FlanaganR,NormanG.RiskManagementandConstruction[M].BlackwellScientificPublications,1993,69-106,107-120,153-179.[4]Shen,LY.ApplicationofRiskManagementtotheChineseConstructionIndustry[D].UK:UniversityofReading,1990.[5]ShenLY.SimulationinConstructionEstimation[R].DepartmentofBuilding&RealEstate,HongKongPolytechnicUniversity,1993,13-31.[6]JerrySRosenbloom.ACaseStudyinRiskManagement[M].Prentice2Hall,Inc.,EnglewoodCliffs,1972,N.J.51-87.[7]DavidHertz,HowardThomas.PracticalRiskAnalysis:AnApproachThroughCaseHistories[M].Johnwiley&Sons.1984,1-5,231-250;284-296.[8]ASAkintoye.Environmentalriskassessmentofprivatefinanceinitiativeprojects[A].ProceedingsonConstructionandtheEnvironment[C].CIBWorldBuilding,1998.[9]ShenLY,WcWu,Skng.Riskmanagementforsino2foreignjointventuresintheChineseConstruction[A].ProceedingsonConstructionandtheEnvironment[C],CIBWorldBuilding,1998,85-92.[10]JamesM.RiskManagementinCivil,MechanicalandStructuralEngineering[M].ThomasTelford,1996,7-48;97-130.[11]JakeAnsell,FrankWharton.RiskAnalysis,AssessmentandManagement[M].JohnWiley&Sons,1992,1-13;95-103.[12]NeilCrockford.AnIntroductiontoRiskManagement[M].Woodhead2Faulkner,Cambridge,1986,11-12.[13]LifsonMW,ShaiferEF.DecisionandRiskAnalysisforConstructionManagement[M].JohnWiley&Sons,Inc.1982.[14]JohnucChicken,MichaelRHayns.TheRiskRankingTechniqueinDecisionMaking[M],PergamonPress,1989.[15]DicksonGCA.RiskAnalysis[M].Witherby&Co.Ltd,1991:1-6.[16]JohnFBurchett,RaoVMTummala.TheapplicationoftheriskmanagementprocessincapitalinvestmentdecisionsforEHVtransmissioulineproject[J].ConstructionManagement&Economics,1998,16(2):235-244.[17]RoozbehKangari.RiskManagementPerceptions&TrendsofU.SConstruction[J].JournalofConstructionEngineering&Management,1995,(12):422-429.8200110©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.