中国风力发电成本发展趋势分析

243Vol.24,No.320085ElectricPowerScienceandEngineeringMay,200812007-11-09.(1983),,.1022062020TM614A011.12055kW1650kW16/(kWh)3/(kWh)20023200kW2004,4761.64kW,0.5%73%,3476kW,384%199910020021230%202012kW20023812%20%1.210kW2.5kW7.5kW[1]1.2.112[2]19904MW20051266MW2200855%20061200691260kW2005134kW105%200566%200706720202000kW20301kW20504kW12201030%2010400kW2010202020%20202000kW1.2.23198115.8/(kWh)20054/(kWh)74.68%NREL1980200590%22.1[3](LearningCurveEffect)()()//=1(1)(1)=1=/2.2[4~9][9]=(2)=12(3)0400800120019971999200120032005119962005019971999200120032005219972005204060800198119951997200020053198120055101520/MW/(%)///((kWh)1)/33=2(4),1MW0180%20%33.119902005Matlab4,1990199614%1997200110%200220055%15,5%14%158%20055520058%20451.8/(kWh)55%3.22005204520054/(kWh)1266MW610%20%30%10%1.8/(kWh)20%0.8/(kWh)30%0.5/(kWh)2/(kWh)614%202020203.320052045[10]7[10]2005201017%2010202516%2025204515.5%,4199020057050010001500654/MW58%(20052045)01.52468102.53.54.56(20052045)2005020152025203520451234/((kWh)1)/((kWh)1)/((kWh)1)/10%20%30%/(×100GW)42008204500.5/(kWh)4155%14%14%0.5/(kWh)2020,[1],.[J].,2001,22(2):167-170.[2].[R].,2006.[3][]M.[M].2003.[4]McDonaldA,SchrattenholzerL.Learningrateforenergytechnologies[J].EnergyPolicy,2001,29:255-261.[5]IbenholtK.Explaininglearningcurvesforwindpower[J].EnergyPolicy,2002,30:1181-1189[6]GrublerA,MessnerS.Technologicalchangeandthetimingofmitigationmeasures[J].EnergyEconomics,1998,20:495-512.[7]IEA(2000).ExperienceCurvesForEnergyTechnologyPol-icy[R].France,2003.[8]ChristopherHarmon.ExperienceCurvesofPhotovoltaicTechnology[R].Austria,2000.[9]PatrikSderholm,ThomasSundqvist.LearningCurveAnaly-sisforEnergyTechnologies:TheoreticalandEconometricIssues[R].Austria,2002.[10].12202012%[R].2004.7200520452005020152025203520451234StudyontheCostTrendsofWindPowerinChinaBasedontheLearningCurveXuLiping,LinLi(SchoolofElectricalandElectronicEngineering,NorthChinaElectricPowerUniversity,Beijing102206,China)Abstract:ThecosttrendsofwindpowerinChinawasanalyzedbyusinglearningcurvemodel,andcomparedthetrendsofwindpowercostundertheinvariableanddifferentlearningratebystagesscenarios.Theresultsofthemodelshowedthat,thelearningrateofwindpowercostinChinachangedbetween5%and14%overthepast15years.Andthelearningratebelow14%wastoolowtoacceleratethewindpowerdevelopment.Thelearningrateofwindpowercostwaspredictedbetweenabout14%and20%,andthelowestwindpowercostwouldbebetweenabout0.5and1cents/(kWh).Intheend,thepaperpointedoutthewindpowercostwouldcompetewithfossilfuelcostin2020.Keywords:windpower;learningcurve;windpowercost/((kWh)1)/