低碳发展的社会经济与技术分析

1IPCC112010211515100.219801.5%0.7%11IPCC,2000.SpecialReportOnEmissionScenarios.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge.IPCC10021/31.3%61201572.114.1%201512.5%2.4%1.8%20%201580%1%%%1990-19992000-201520002015200020151.01.260.672.147.253.7OECD0.60.414.112.578.881.91.10.721.119.635.849.51.00.84.74.577.281.0-0.1-0.62.41.872.974.00.4-0.11.41.187.589.91.91.316.717.127.732.2UNDP2002HumanDevelopmentReport,DeepeningDemocracyInaFragmentedWorld,OxfordUniversityPress,Oxford.2220251.2%312199019990.51.02%US$,%2000GDP10001975-20001990-2000200019981.21.231.044.05113OECD2.11.777.753.8282325608.19.23.511.4847122.02.231.821.934737770-1.2-4.60.82.817261.91.26.14.7228425503.24.11.55.445210UNDP,2002,LesterBrown,2001.CarsandLandUse,WorldWatchInstitute.30OECD14%80%5%1/3201/5GDP3.5%33200019971997CO21.08010.98931.2061.4152.2805.5471.0741.6334.243UNDP,2002.IEA,EnergyStatistics.2000.232HotAir.B.Metsetal.2001,ClimateChange2001:Mitigation.CambridgeUniversityPress.41/31/51/20345100124106810%20%106320024J.Pan,2002.RuralenergypatternsinChina.PaperpresentedatStanford.TER1.WorkshoponRuralEnergyTransition.NewDelhi,Nov2002.52003200335B3460%0.8-1.31.65160%4CO241.14%0.46%0.28%4%kg/GJ25.519.2615.30.00.0672444122.319-1%+1%66254410.28%-1%+1%66245410.46%6-1%+1%66244511.14%23040%5667--5%ppp//ppptCO2/272263.90.7720.10367317.70.417.4814642210.80.241.302151288.10.160.481733504.20.692.3028462610.00.610.9321522710.80.120.19261376.30.448.92962296.70.331.785825170.140.09461354.40.673.86UNDP2002IEA2000200161750203/45%61750-19901900100817509334781800994768183011273611186083143416190060481235191370863255192898126037119381221560481195320028705135197392784301431519801320991019347199024801209029412PaulBairoch,1995.EconomicsandWorldHistory.UniversityofChicagoPress3719951/41/350%1/471995%gce/kWh41232526.8%kgce/t97662955.2%kgce/t118482044.4%kgce/t21.9119.4612.6%kgce/t126893036.3%kgce/t175113.254.6%%29.034-41200125-262-491/5300KG1/550%20507486719601010001%0.6-7.15014%20%60003.6-42500.07-0.080.810,1%-8%.,--1.1--150.5-5%,1/31/3507IPCC,1999.SpecialReportonAviationandtheAtmosphere.CambridgeUniversityPress.8B.Metzetal2001.Chapter3andChapter4.101191900280020008.530200020003518018520980001008651016617176423.522.7200501020002000toe/20025920001980386583.3%101%41.4%40.6%1110200078%200041.73%7%9200235101960914199319951120100196520001201010%1120003.888%13%9%8%4.62.2121993200070001311.030.580.051841.460%20%5%17.51003.511200240200212EnergyEconomists.2002,No.12,p.46.13200211112204040%22%214142002130180n.nakicenovic,2001.oilandgasfuturefromahistoricalperspective.PaperPresentedatPewWorkshoponOilandGasMarketandClimateChangePolicy.Snowmass,Colorado,USA9-10,August,2001.1.13200312159WTO19083-5746768-22045763-47163326-77462968-112000-5301097-903241-255018-3894-282-5121WorldBank,2002.Globaleconomicprospectsandthedevelopingcountries.TheWorldBank,WashingtonDC.Table5.1.380KM1018401950188019501950198520152003314B36142050KG500KG11010100KG600KG70580KG650KG357200KG950KG19602205200013104040%22000260026KG20201.31.64.86198570122.116341171100170201023016200011110KG2030160172KG413.1600.1222.719992000km/km22/km2km//km/km//km/P1381641941620032141522002181192159162000200275-85417UNDP2002200291820031A172002540-5561840WSSD2003172199019WTO19WSSD2002401831980UNDP200285FreedomofAssociationandcollectivebargainingconvention20UNDPFreedomHouse121220PP.55155219UNDP2002P.17UNDP2002