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1RobertFogel’sforecastingChineseeconomyin20402发展经济学developmenteconomics讲课人:李实本课程的结构1.发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变1.1研究范畴1.2发展的测度1.3研究方法1.4历史演变2.发展与增长理论2.1增长与发展的差异2.2增长理论:Harrod-Dmarmodel;Solowmodel;convergence:unconditionalandconditional.2.3新增长理论2.4人口增长与经济发展2.5经济发展与人类发展3.发展与收入分配3.1收入分配的现实与理论3.2收入决定机制与因素分析3.3经济发展与收入差距3.4经济增长与收入分配3.5中国收入分配的变化趋势4.发展中国家中的贫困问题4.1绝对贫困与相对贫困4.2贫困线的设定4.3贫困标准的选择:收入还是消费4.4贫困的度量:贫困发生率、贫困距和加权贫困距4.5中国的贫困状态5.发展中国家的劳动力市场与人力资本35.1劳动剩余与两部门模型5.2劳动力市场中工资决定机制5.3劳动力市场中歧视问题5.4中国农民工的工资与歧视状态的研究5.5劳动力流动与城乡差距5.6教育、健康与经济发展6.土地与经济发展6.1土地产权与租赁制度6.2土地租赁合同理论6.3土地产权制度理论7.资本市场与经济发展7.1信贷市场的不完善性7.2农村信贷市场的功能与发展7.3非正规信贷市场7.4资本市场的制度与信贷市场的发展8.保险与发展8.1保险的功能8.2完善的保险模型8.3保险的局限性:信息的不对称性8.4保险的执行困难9.国际贸易与经济发展9.1国际贸易的基本理论9.2比较优势理论9.3世界贸易格局9.4贸易政策和发展战略10.制度与经济发展10.1新制度经济学对经济发展的启示10.2政府与市场的作用10.3经济改革与经济发展11.发展经济学的未来方向11.1理论还是经验研究?11.2中国经济发展的经验如何上升到一般的经济发展理论41.发展经济学研究范畴、方法和历史演变1.1研究对象(DE是什么)Whatiseconomicdevelopment?(1)Economicdevelopmentisthedevelopmentofeconomicwealthofcountriesorregionsforthewell-beingoftheirinhabitants.(2)Theprocesswherebytherealpercapitaincomeofacountryincreasesoveralongperiodoftime,subjecttothestipulationsthatthenumberofpeoplebelowanabsolutepovertylinedoesnotincreaseandthatthedistributionofincomedoesnotbecomemoreunequal.(3)Economicdevelopmentisameanstomakemasspeopleoutofpoverty.Whatdevelopmenteconomicsstudies?DEstudiestheeconomicstructureandbehaviorofthepoor(lessdeveloped)countries(Lewis,1984).DevelopmentEconomics(DE)studiestheeconomictransformationofdevelopingcountries(DebrajRay,1998).ThemajortaskofDEistoexplorethepossibilitiesofemancipationfrompovertyfordevelopingeconomies(YujiroHayami,2001).DEisaboutthebigissues:howeconomiesandsocietiesgrowandchange(N.Stern,2001).Backward➙underdevelopment➙lessdevelopedcountries➙poorcountriesemergentcountries➙developingeconomies.51.2研究内容(研究什么)(1)理解现在世界各国发展的不平衡性。(2)理解发展中国家现在的问题需要理解发达国家的发展经验,具有比较的意义。(3)对前人的发展理论要加以研究。(4)发展涉及到很多层面,1.3发展的测度(measurementofdevelopment)GDPorGDPpercapita是否是衡量发展程度的最好指标?它在国际比较中的缺陷:发展中国家GDP低估的问题;PPP方法来修正GDP;人类发展指数(HDI)的意义和应用。China’rankofHDIintheworld,1970-20101.4研究方法(1)理论研究与经验研究(theoreticalandempiricalapproach)(2)发展微观经济学与发展宏观经济学(developmentmicroeconomicsanddevelopmentmacroeconomics)(3)纯粹的经济分析还是多学科研究61.5历史演变(1)古典经济学是当时的发展经济学(2)在20世纪40年代后期,现代发展经济学形成。Capitalaccumulation,asthenecessaryrequirement,wasthecentralfocusofthemodels.TheHarrod-Domarequation,althoughoriginallyformulatedforconditionsoffullgrowthinanindustrialeconomy,wasappliedtoestimatecapitalrequirementsindevelopingcountries.Otherearlymodelsofdevelopmentstrategyalsofeaturedcapitalaccumulation:Rostow'sstagesofgrowth,1.Traditionalsociety2.Preconditionsfortake-off3.Take-off4.Drivetomaturity5.AgeofHighmassconsumptionNurkse'sbalancedgrowth,Thetheoryhypothesesthatthegovernmentofanyunderdevelopedcountryneedstomakelargeinvestmentsinanumberofindustriessimultaneously.Thiswouldconsequentlyenlargethemarketsizeandprovideanincentivefortheprivatesectortoinvest.Rosenstein-Rodan'sexternaleconomiesandbigpush,Thistheoryisaninvestmenttheorywhichstressestheconditionsoftake-off.Theargumentationisquitesimilartothebalancedgrowththeorybutemphasisisputontheneedforabigpush.Theinvestmentsshouldbeofarelativelyhighminimuminordertoreapthebenefitsofexternaleconomies.Onlyinvestmentsinbigcomplexeswillresultinsocialbenefitsexceedingsocialcosts.Highpriorityisgivento7infrastruc-turaldevelopmentandindustry,andthisemphasiswillleadtogovernmentaldevelopmentplanningandinfluence.Lewis'sunlimitedsupplyoflaboranddual-sectormodelTheprocessofeconomicgrowthisinextricablylinkedtothegrowthofcapitalistsurplus,thatisaslongasthethecapitalistsurplusincreases,thenationalincomealsoincreasesraisingthegrowthoftheeconomy.Theincreaseincapitalistsurplusislinkedtotheuseofmoreandmorelaborwhichisassumedtobeinsurplusincaseofthismodel.Thisprocessofcapitalaccumulationdoescometoanendatsomepoint.Thispointiswherecapitalaccumulationcatchesupwithpopulationsothatthereisnolongeranysurpluslaborleft.Prebisch-Myrdal-SingerhypothesesabouttermsoftradeandimportsubstitutionThethesispostulatesthattermsoftrade,betweenprimaryproductsandmanufacturedgoods,deteriorateintime.Countriesthatexportcommodities(developingcountries)intimewouldimportfewermanufacturedgoodsrelativetoagivenlevelofexports.Leibenstein'scriticalminimumeffortthesis,Criticalminimumefforttheoryisoneofthebalancedgrowththeories.Ittalksabouthowaminimumamountofpushisrequiredbyaneconomyforittobesetonthepathofdevelopment.Thispushcanbeintheformofinvestments.Theminimumamountofeffortthatisrequirediscriticalfortheeconomytomovetowardsdevelopmenthencethistheoryiscalledcriticalminimumeffort.Becauseofthehighpopulationinunderdevelopedcountriesthecapitalaccumulationandlaboursupplyarenotsufficienttoincreasethepercapitaincome.Chenery'stwo-gapmodel.Two-gapmodel(Two-gapModel),isthedevelopingcountriestoachievethesavingsgapandforeignexchangegapsinthetheoryoftheequilibriummodel.Themodelisthroughtheuseofexternalresourcesindevelopingcountries,toplaytheroleofgovernmentinthesametime,adjustmentofdomesticeconomicstructuretoadapttotheintroductionofex
本文标题:发展经济学 development economics(1)
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