我国农村劳务输出发展研究

华中科技大学硕士学位论文我国农村劳务输出发展研究姓名：冯晓东申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：张金隆20070430I1984,IIAbstractTheruralsurpluslaborforce'stransferingtowardthenon-agricultureindustryandthecityistheinexorablelawofeconomicandsocialdevelopmentandtheinevitabletrendoftherealizationofourcountry’sindustrializationandmodernization.From1984,thetransformationofthesurpluslaborforceofourcountrysidehavetransferedfrom“loose”to“release”,andto“encouragement”plus“leading”,outputofrurallabor-serviceinChinahavegotafastdevelopment.Inthisprocess,theagricultureofourcountrywasdevelopedwithhighspeed,livingqualityofourcountry’svillageresidentswasimprovednotablely,theprogressofourruralsocietywasquickly.But,becauseoftheparticularityofourcountry,theseveralproblemswithregardtosystem,mechanismandoperation,suchasoutputofrurallabor-servicetiedbydualstructureand“emptynest”phenomenonofvillagefamily,appearedintheprocessofpushingtherurallabor-serviceoutput.Iftheseproblemscannotberesolvedavailably,theprogressofourmodernizationandurbanizationwillberestrictedbadly,andtheissueof“ARF”,anabbreviationfor“agriculture,ruralareasandfarmers”,willnotberesolvedsuccessfully.Themethodsusedinthistextarethecombinationoftheoreticandpracticalanalysisandofqualitativeandquantitativeanalysis.Theactuality,functionandexistentproblemofrurallabor-serviceoutputarecarriedonsystemanalysisinthispaperfirstly.Itisemphasistoanalyzethefunctionofrurallabor-serviceoutputtowardacceleratingagriculture’sdevelopment,towardimprovingthelivingqualityofvillageresidentsandtowardpromotingthevillagesocialprogress.Onthisfoundation,accordingtothedifferenttransfercombinationofthevillagesurpluslaborforcebetweenagricultureandnon-agricultureorthecityandthecountryside,threekindsofmodesofrurallabor-serviceoutputareformed.Inaccordancewiththe“threemodels”,thereistheoutput'sstrategyoftherurallabor-serviceinthispaper.Asaresult,onlyattachimportanceto“threemodels”ofrurallabor-serviceoutputsimultaneously,thencaneffectivelyresolvethecurrentproblemsaboutrurallabor-serviceoutputintheoutputregion,andcanattainthegoalthattheeconomicdevelopmentandsocialadvancementarepromoted.Keywords:theruralsurpluslaborforce,outputofthelabor-service,outputmodels____________111.12005137.52.7%;4.2%;1.8%[1]4,1262.6,57.4,287.0,114.24.017.1,571.020.085.5[2]60%1980198319841992301983-19886300198419892003000219921993112001320042005122920063271.2[3][4][5]3200520052005200520002005123[6]2004[7]1.31776-187125%62%19192018709904543051.2%40%[8]30%81.2%W.A.Lewis1954[9]1958(Gustav.Ranis)(John.Fei)19611996-(Ranis-FeiModel)5JorgensonModel[10]-6070(M.P.Todaro)6070(TodaroModel)[11](D.J.Bogue)2050::-6--1.4722.11)20042[12]1.38[13]4.97[14]1.59500200420038002)3)20048.381.3%[13]4)20041.1823.8%[13]8.320.9%[13]5)2004163061%314023%4116%28.6[15]6)200497%90%4.7%7.2%[14]92%69%8[16]20%3.4%0.13%76.4%[15]320010%7)200566.3%33.7%[15]100196.742005106.30[17]8)52%[15][18][19]12-1446%47%[20]9)200580072.1%30050029.26%50080039.26%[15]10)51%62.4%[13]200420034487.4%68%70%[13][12]2.292.2.112[21][22]3209020031.35719961.351[23]4200415.2%46.9%[14]5102.2.2120044039.6[23]780[13]8.38.364743.7[24]232-12-1[25][26]2.3112-1()1978133.6343.40.391980191.3477.60.401985397.6739.10.541989601.51373.90.441990686.31510.20.451991708.61700.60.421992784.02026.60.391993921.62577.40.3619941221.03496.20.3519951577.74283.00.3719961926.14838.90.4019972090.15160.30.4119982162.05425.10.4019992210.35854.00.3820002253.46280.00.3620012366.46859.60.3420022475.67702.80.3220032622.28472.20.3120042936.49421.60.3120053254.910493.00.31-2006[27]2.3.112GDP2-22-2GDP()XGDP()Y19781018.41980916.31359.419856713.62541.619898498.34228.019908673.15017.019918906.25288.619929764.65800.0199310997.66887.3199411963.99471.4199512707.412020.0199613027.613885.8199713556.414264.6199813805.914618.0199913984.714548.1200015164.614716.2200115777.915516.2200216536.316238.6200317711.517068.3200419099.320955.8200520411.723070.4-20062-2XGDPY2-113XY050001000015000200002500019781980198519891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005XYXY2-1XY2-11GDP21995XYGDPGDP2-2GDP0.05000.010000.015000.020000.025000.00500010000150002000025000GDP2-2GDP2-2GDP2-21980142-2197819892005XY2-32-3XY()XGDP()Y19898498.34228.019908673.15017.019918906.25288.619929764.65800.0199310997.66887.3199411963.99471.4199512707.412020.0199613027.613885.8199713556.414264.6199813805.914618.0199913984.714548.1200015164.614716.2200115777.915516.2200216536.316238.6200317711.517068.3200419099.320955.8200520411.723070.4152-42-4XY(a)MultipleR0.97817545RSquare0.95682722AdjustedRSquare0.953949031209.1284917(b)dfSSMSFSignificanceF1486026141486026141332.4411051.19998E-111521929875.71461991.716507956017(c)CoefficientstStatP-valueLower95%Upper95%Intercept-8212.33331176.64348-6.9794584.4296E-06-10720.28946-5704.377XVariable11.531760360.0840104818.2329681.2E-111.3526962641.71082452-4-8212.3333+1.5318x2-12-11)RSquare=0.95682722GDP2-12-22)SignificanceF=1.19998E-11a=0.05GDPP-value1.2E-11a0.05GDP2-116GDP2-11)2)[28]3)4)200617200252783274[20]2.3.2RZXXZXR2-2[29]2-22-52-5XRZ()XR(Z)1978133.667.71980916.3191.361.