战略和互联网的发展趋势

STRATEGYANDTHEINTERNET:TRENDSANDPREDICTIONSRealTechConferencePeterStanger-1-RealTechConf-PS-June01-tor-lmE-COMMERCEISDEAD“E-CommerceIsDead,LongLiveE-Commerce”-TheIndustryStandard,April2000“Going,Going,Gone:Business-to-ConsumerSectorGoesBust”-Forbes.com,April2000“Canyoubuildabrandonlinesellingthird-partygoods?Theanswerisno,eventhougheveryoneusedtothinktheanswerwasyes”-BryanRutbert,WarburgDillonRead“Thelivingdeadhavegottenawaywithmurderbecausethepublicmarketshavefundedriskierventures.LookatAmazon.com-ifcouldbethebiggestlivingdeadthepublicmarketshaveeverseen.”-WarrenPackard,DraperFisherJurvetson-2-RealTechConf-PS-June01-tor-lmTOMSIEBELCEO,SiebelSystems“Ifyoucan’tgenerateprofits,significantmarketshareandcustomersatisfaction,youreoutofbusiness.”“OntheB2Bexchangeside,Idon’tthinkanyonewillsurvive.Theyareallgone.”-3-RealTechConf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHECAPITALMARKETSHADITALLWRONG020406080100120PeakMarketCapCurrentMarketCapTravelocityBarnsandnobel.comExpediaDrugstore.comEgghead.comPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAllOther$11.4B020406080100120PeakMarketCapCurrentMarketCap020406080100120PeakMarketCapCurrentMarketCap-4-RealTechConf-PS-June01-tor-lmISTHEREVOLUTIONOVER?July28,1794-5-RealTechConf-PS-June01-tor-lmTHEBUMPYRIDEOFECONOMICREVOLUTIONS1860-18901895-1925-6-RealTechConf-PS-June01-tor-lmFUNDAMENTALFORCESAREATWORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkersperbushelofmanufacturedcottonEngland1770-83PriceoftheModelTtouringcar1908-20191019151920198519901995PriceofCPUcomputingpower$/MIPS1982-95Lowerprocessingcosts...…withincreasedthroughput...FibercapacityTime1050104103102…andpowerfulnetworkeconomics020406080100012345678910nValueincreasesasthesquareofconnectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+2cF+3cF+4cF+5cF+6cF+7cF+8cF+9cF+10cF+ncValue,costConnectionsCostincreaseslinearlywithconnections…lowerstoragecosts...$/MBAverageHDsizeinPCatretail(GB)Harddrivesize(GB)Cost($/MB)0.000.200.400.600.801.001995199619971998199920002001200220030255075100-7-RealTechConf-PS-June01-tor-lmLONGDISTANCEWholesale(Network)•Design/build•Operations/maintenance•Resale/interconnectionRetail•Sales/marketing•Accountmanagement•BillingRetail•Sales/marketing•Accountmanagement•BillingNetwork•Design/build•Operations/maintenance•Resale/interconnectionRetailRetail•Networkintelligence•ValueaddedservicesWholesaleservicecreation•Networkintelligence•ValueaddedservicesNetworkmanagement/dispatchWholesalePHARMACEUTICALSResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales&marketingIncreaseddevelopmentcostsRoleofblockbustersincreasingQualityoutsourcersavailableEasiercoordination1980s1990sResearchDevelopmentTrialsRegistrationManufac-turingSales&marketingAcademiclabsBiotechfirmsContractresearchorganizationsContractmfrsPBMsJVs/licensingELECTRICUTILITIESCOMPUTERINDUSTRYAT&T,MCIandSprint…fragmentedradicallyMicroprocessors,integratedcircuits,memorychipsComputersOperatingsystemsApplicationssoftwareMarketing,sales,anddistributionCommonstandardsTimebasedcompetition1995IntelMotorolaAMDCyrixCompaqDellApplePackardBellIBMDOSandWindowsUNIXMacOSOS/2MicrosoftOfficeWordPerfectOthersRetailSuperstoresOn-lineMailorderNeXtIBM,Digital1997PrimaryfuelPowergenerationTradingDistributionBackwardintegrationtoreduceriskForwardintegrationtoopensupplychannelsScalethroughfocusingonhugepowerplantsSynergythroughbundlingcapabilitiesofgeneraltradingandenergybusinessNewservicesforthecustomerRuhrkohleMobilBPShellNationalPower(UK)Electrobel(Belgium)RWE(Germany)NorskKraftmegling(Norway)EnronUnitedUtilities(UK)South-ernWaterEasternElect-ricity(UK)Stadt-werkeMunch-en(Ger-many)1990199519851990Statkraft(Norway)OsloEnergi(Norway)EVO(Germany)IVO(Finland)MANYINDUSTRIESEXPERIENCINGAREDEFINITIONOFCOMPETITIVEBOUNDARIES-8-RealTechConf-PS-June01-tor-lmMASSIVEREDISTRIBUTIONOFTHEMARGINPOOLISOCCURINGDigitalPhotographyExampleCameraFilmEquipmentPaper,chemicalsPhoto-finisherReprint/enlargeStore/displaySharewithothersProcessingAnalogvaluechain–KodakandFujidominateMajorplayers(2000U.S.marketshare)•Canon•Nikon•Olympus•Minolta•Kodak•Fuji•Kodak(66%)•Fuji•Kodak(Qualex)(~40%)•Fuji•Photohuts•Albummanufacturers•Framemanufacturers•MailservicesdisposablesCameraManipulation•Crop•AlterpixelsPrinterPaper,inkReprint/enlargeStore/displaySharewithothersProcessing(athome)Digitalvaluechain–HP,Sonyandotherswell-positionedMajorplayers(2000U.S.marketshare)•Sony(35%)•HP(19%)•Olympus(13%)•Kodak(12%)•HP(70%)•Lexmark•Epson•HP•Lexmark•Epson•Kodak•PC•IBMmicrodrive•Sony•CompactFlash•E-mailposting•PersonalWebsite•Zing•Shutterfly•Snapfish•Ofoto•Others•Adobe(Photoshop)•Standardwithcameraandavailablefreeonline-9-RealTechConf-PS-June01-tor-lm0102030405060701998199920002001ProjectionEXPLOSIVEGROWTHINONLINERETAILINGCONTINUES65.117.8Source:TheStateofOnlineRetailing2.0,3.0and4.0,Shop.orgsurveysconductedbyTheBostonConsultingGroup;SECfilings;MediaMetrixandHarrisInteractivedata;industryassociationreports;analystreportsNote:Excludesfinancialbrokerage11.515.2NorthAmericanBusiness-to-ConsumerRevenues($B)20.6+132%+66%+46%26.744.5Onlinechannel