比较优势结构与开放型棉产业发展

1No.C20060152006-09*No.C20060152006918*2*No.C20060152006918*3China’scottontradepolicyatthecrossingroadSummaryThepaperassessestherecentsurgeofChina’scottonimportsandevaluatesthepoliciesregulatingcottonimportssuchasquotaandslidingduties.InlightoftheevidencesregardingChina’sdomesticcottonproductionandlaborproductivity,cottonfarmers’income,growthofcottontextilesanditsjobcreationeffects,thepaperarguesthatthegrowthofcottonimportsisindeedahealthydevelopment.Thepoliciesofquotaandslidingdutiesareneverthelessinefficientand/oratoddswithbasicprinciplesofmarketmechanism.ThepaperproposestofurtherliberalizeChina’scottontradepoliciesunilaterallyand/orinthemultilateralcontextoftheDohaRoundnegotiations.Keywords:China’scottontrade,cottonquota,slidingduties4122-12-233-13-2456712000-200511980-20052-A1981/1–2006/62-B1981/1–2006/631978-200641978-200451993-20046-A1980-20056-B1980-200571992-200482000-200592001-20051011111981-20052200412000-200222003-200532000-20054200020055ContentsofChapters1RecentsurgeofChina’scottonimportsandthepolicydebate2AssessingcottonimportsfromChina’sdomesticproductionsector2-1Cottonoutputgrowthandevolvingregionalpattern2-2Changesforcottonlaborproductivityandcottonfarmingincomes3AssessingcottonimportsfromChina’stextileandclothingsectors3-1RecentgrowthofChina’stextileoutputandexports3-2MeasurementsofjobcreationbyChina’stextilesector4EconomicanalysisofChina’scottonquotaregulationpolicy5EconomicanalysisofChina’scottonslidingdutiespolicy6Necessityofcottonpriceintegrationandpolicysuggestions7China’scottontradepolicyatthecrossingroad:ConcludingremarksAppendix1EstimatesofemploymentsworkinginthecottontextilessectorsforthefirmsabovethescaleinChina(2000-2005)ReferenceFiguresandTablesFig.1China’scottontrade(1980-2005)Fig.2-ATheChineseandforeigncottonprices(Jan.1981–Jun.2006Fig.2-BGapbetweentheChineseandforeigncottonprices(Jan.1981–Jun.2006)Fig.3CottontotaloutputandoutputperareainChina(1978-2006)Fig.4CottonlaborproductivityinChina(1978-2004)Fig.5IncomesfromcottonfarmingandcottonimportsinChina(1993-2004)Fig.6-AOutputsofyarnandchemicalfiberinChina(1980-2005)Fig.6-BOutputsofclothandapparelsinChina(1980-2005)Fig.7ImportsandexportsofcottontextileproductsinChina(1992-2004)Fig.8EmploymentsforthetextilefirmsabovethescaleinChina(2000-2005)Fig.9EmploymentsforthewholetextileindustryinChina(2001-2005)Fig.10AnalyticalframeworkforassessingtheimportquotaFig.11SchematicpresentationofChina’sopencottonindustryFig.1inAppendix1StatisticalcoverageofChina’stextileindustryTable1RegionalpatternofChina’scottonproduction(1981-2005)Table2EmploymentsintextilesectorbyChina’seconomicCensus200461178.189.421200525011980-20052200664220069312006882006200682152200178.12002200481.985.689.41%3200695.52/36%averageginningyield10400ginningcost400yuanpertonne13512/77/5.7-5.8/alintpriceofGrade314200/81/seedcottonprices5.8-6.0/15000/85.5/CottonOutlook,Vol.84,No.36,September8,2006,p.720069620061262007372-A41000-200053.41/57.06/CottonOutlook,Vol.84,No.36,September8,2006,p.44820055slidingduties40%WTOMFA23456722-13443/11303.34%19782176003.7%1978217198462619801989-199137856719993832004632600919971998120138199819991999-20052006200620068302006119804%199023.7%30.4%11981-20051981/82198119831996/9719982004200520052006102-24708019780.6/19871.6/1.6711.5%1988-199719971.7/19871998-200420043.1/82.4%9%200320042005200620045.176.5%55Genemodifiedorganisms:GMOs905%200573%1999-20051.2760-80%25%180-22010001151992-200419901990199019992005-200661210%6200661233-12005200520061551949-20042005200520061551949-200419801985199019942000/200162019802000253657204044.89%200514122000-200575516.5%1980452000694206502005162959351319801352000277201422005494521719809.52000722062.520051485767HS19928119991042.7%1999200410425315.95%HS2005140098040%40012%3503-214782000-2005841857351557639782151892001-20052001128120052024474368511624777185001999419152006190019609200520244%-7%20042200498320049197%1382176928%2004135722004587.92794.8306.4375.97331.91507.6839.1943.3824.136.33983.121382.19200428%10119.331752001-20054300185.84391960135020064000190020061.519002006102004900075922006161142001-200545890%2001-200527041222001-20043651335269124425%16%2001-2004162191692065652%34%32001-200465622534.3.4%34252.1%124420316.3%30924.9%480012001710SDPWcifOQDOQsD1D0PwS1S0PwtQSQDQ’SQ’DAA+B+C+DADBCdeadweightlose10Q’SQ’DDD/PWQSQDP*D1111PWP*Q’DQ’SDSADBQDCQStD0D1S1S0O18895200551998Johnson,1973WTOWTO901919969090611201190WTO21/7212212000-200515001234112002/2003298-299232000-20052000-200220032000-200220032000-2002200322003-20052001/20022002/20032000-200220032000-2002200312000-200276-77%77%47-48%48%120002002200020012002276.61275.90275.59163.75161.20160.1648.3149.9849.7727.4628.6630.0027.3524.8324.242.962.712.810.770.770.7652.0657.1161.2024.8327.2228.830.480.480.472000/20012001/20022002/200322000-2002200320032000-20022003200324220032005200320042005228.07232.90258.900.770.770.77/296.20302.47336.2379.11116.11123.520.480.480.48*37.9855.7459.292003/20042004/20052005/200612000-20023503320002005*0.5*0.52000218.83109.4215.937.962001240.28120.14