策略发展委员会

1策略發展委員會經濟發展及與內地經濟合作委員會CommissiononStrategicDevelopmentCommitteeonEconomicDevelopmentandEconomicCooperationwiththeMainland創造就業EmploymentCreation二零零六年十月三十一日31October20062概覽Overview•香港勞工市場發展回顧ReviewofHongKonglabourmarketdevelopments•香港經濟及勞工市場的轉型TransformationoftheHKeconomyandlabourmarket•其他已發展經濟體系的一些啟示Somelessonslearntfromoverseasdevelopedeconomies•香港的就業及失業率展望OutlookforHK’semploymentandunemploymentrate3Economicupturnleadingtobroad-basedimprovementsinthelabourmarketJMSJMSJMSJMSJMSJMSJMSJMSJMSJMSJMS1996199719981999200020012002200320042005200601234567891011Unemploymentrate(%)OverallLower-skilledworkersProfessionalandmanagerialstaff5.34.72.12003Q2:8.620035-7:10.02003Q2:3.8(A)(B)(C)(D)(E)(Threemonthsending)經濟復蘇令勞工市場多方面改善失業率(%)(截至該月份的三個月平均)較低技術工人專業及管理人員整體4當前的復蘇並非「無職位的」Currentrecoverynot“jobless”5經濟擴張的步伐仍是整體就業增長速度的決定性因素Paceofemploymentcreationstillhingescruciallyoneconomicgrowth每年平均增減率(%)Averageannualgrowth(%)整體就業Totalemployment實質GDPRealGDP1991-19961.75.41996-20051.33.92004-20052.57.9Q32003toQ32006*3.08.3註:(*)採用2003第二季及2006第二季的實質GDP。Note:(*)RealGDPforQ22003andQ22006areused.經濟須實質擴張約3%從而帶來1%的就業增長Around3%realGDPgrowthfor1%employmentgrowth61976197919821985198819911994199720002003Q1-Q3200618002000220024002600280030003200340036003800Number('000)EmploymentEmploymentandlabourforcetrendssincethemid-1970s(a)Level(b)Rateofchangey-o-yLabourforce1977198219871992199720020246810-2PercentEmploymentLabourforce自七十年代中以來就業人數和勞動人口趨勢人數年增減率千人百分率勞動人口就業人數勞動人口就業人數Q1-Q32006Q1-Q32006789101112131415其他已發展經濟體系的一些啟示Somelessonslearntfromoverseasdevelopedeconomies•市場改革，加上近年經濟表現蓬勃，導致很多經濟體系的失業率都有所下降Unemploymentratedowninmanyeconomiesinrecentyears,thankstothepastreformsandbuoyanteconomicperformance•受亞洲金融風暴影響，區內經濟體系現時的失業率普遍高於九十年代初的水平Unemploymentratesinregionaleconomiesnowgenerallyhigherthanintheearly1990s,duetotheimpactofAsianFinancialCrisis•德國的高失業情況部分反映維持勞工市場靈活的重要性Germany’shighunemploymentpartlyreflectstheimportanceofmaintainingaflexiblelabourmarket16就業及失業率的展望Outlookforemploymentandunemploymentrate•經濟增長良好有助進一步紓緩失業情況Healthyeconomicgrowthconducivetofurtherimprovementinunemploymentsituation•除經濟增長速度外，增長模式對創造就業也有影響Apartfrompaceofeconomicexpansion,patternofeconomicgrowthalsoaffectsemploymentcreation•提高勞動人口的技術水平和就業能力亦非常重要Raisingskillsandemployabilityoflabourforcealsocrucial17謝謝ThankYou18Privateconsumptionexpenditurebyselectedcomponents05010015020025030035040045050019861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005HK$Bn(atcurrentmarketprices)ServicesGoodsExpenditureofresidentsabroad19Retailssales14016018020022024026019941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200580859095100105110HK$BnVolumeindex(2004/2005=100)Valueterms(leftscale)Volumeterms(rightscale)