中国奢侈品行业报告_ BCG

China’sLuxuryMarketinaPost-Land-RushEraMattAnestis,Jean-MarcBellaiche,HubertHsu,MichelleEirinbergKluz,YanLou,andVincentLuiSeptember2009TBCGSChinacontinuestobeanimportantmarketforgloballuxury-goodscompanies.Althoughnotimmunetotheglobaleconomiccrisis,thecountryhassufferedfarlessthanothers,andecono-mistsareevenrevisingupwardtheirGDPgrowthestimatesforthecountrytothehighsingledigitsfor2009.ThecontinuedhealthofChina’sluxurymarketmakesitanoasisofhopeandpossibilityinarecession-batteredworld.Chinaisexpectedtobecometheworld’slargestluxurymarketinthenextfivetosevenyears.Already,aswealthhasspreadfromthenation’slargecoastalcitiestosmallercitiesinthenorthandwest,luxurystoreshavebeguntofollow.Infact,thepastfewyearscouldbecharacterizedasa“landrush,”inwhichcompetingluxurybrandshavetriedtoestablishthemselvesbycapturingterritoryasfastaspossible.AlthoughChina’sluxurymarketwillcontinuetogrow,brandsthathaveexpandedrapidlywillnowneedtothinklessaboutextendingtheirfootprintandmoreaboutimprovingstoreefficiencyandoptimizingtheircurrentnetwork.Thisshiinfocuswillrequireakeenerunderstandingofconsumers’attitudesaboutluxurygoodsinordertostrengthenaffiliationwiththebrand—bothwithinChinaandinthecountrieswhereChineseconsumerstravel.Forbrandswithsmallerfootprints,continuingtogrowmightbeimportant,butdoingsowiselywillbecritical.Ultimately,allluxurycompanieswillneedtoimprovecoordinationbetweenglobalandlocaloffices,carefullyassesstheneedforaphysicalpresenceineachofthecitiesinthismarket,determinehowtheymightbuildabrandincitieswheretheylackaretailpres-ence,anddevelopthetoolsnecessarytowinnewcustomersatthepointofsale.Toassistluxurycompaniesastheybeginexperimentingwithnewapproachestotheirproductsandorganizationalprocesses,thisWhitePapersummarizesTheBostonConsultingGroup’smostcomprehen-sivestudytodateofChina’srapidlyevolvingluxurymarket.TheinsightsweofferonthesechallengesarebasedonclientworkandproprietarydatafrominterviewswithseniormanagersofluxurycompaniesinChinaandon840extensiveexitinterviewswithChineseconsumerswhowereengagedinluxuryshoppingtripsattheendof2008.WealsodrawonBCG’sannualConsumerSentimentSurvey,conductedmostrecentlyfromOctober2008throughFebruary2009bytheCenterforConsumerInsight(CCI),whichprovidesworld-classconsumer-insightcapabilitiestothefirm’sclients.Furthermore,thestudytapsadatabaseonstoreexpansionundertakenby38luxurybrandsthroughearly2009.Thedatabasealsoprovidesestimatesonhowthebrands’point-of-salefootprintswillevolve;theprojectionsaretheresultofdirectcallstomorethan1,000pointsofsalearoundChina.Finally,wealsodrawonBCG’sextensiveexperienceintheluxuryretailindustry.TheLandGrabinLuxuryGoodsForluxurypurveyors,abigpartofChina’sallureistherapidpaceofitswealthaccumulation.FromourworkwithleadingChinesebanks,we’vedeterminedthatbytheendof2008,Chinaboastedmorethan460,000high-net-worthhouseholds,eachwithmorethanRMB7million(aboutU.S.$1million)inassetsundermanagement.Thiscategoryisgrowingfastandisexpectedtoinclude750,000householdsbytheendof2011.Butitisnotjustthenumberofthesehouseholdsthatisprojectedtoincrease—theamountoftheirwealthistoo.Weforecastthathigh-net-worthhouseholdsinChinawillseetheirtotalassetsundermanage-mentroughlydoublefrom2008to2011,risingfromaboutRMB12trilliontomorethanRMB23trillion.AlthoughstillsmallinrelationtothetotalpopulationofChina,thenation’shigh-net-worthpopulationislargerthanthatofmanyaffluentcountriessuchasFranceandtheUnitedKingdom.AndthewealthyinChinaarespreadoveramuchlargerregionthanarethewealthyinothercountries.Untilrecently,mostofthewealthinChinahadbeenconcentratedalongthecoast—withGuangdong,Shanghai,andShandongChina’sLuxuryMarketinaPost-Land-RushEraTBCGSChina’sLuxuryMarketinaPost-Land-RushEra2provincescontainingthehighestnumberofwealthyhouseholds—andthecurrentluxurypoint-of-salesnetworkroughlymirrorsthatdistribution.Butaswealthhasbeguntospreadthroughoutallcitytiersandregions—withsomeofthemostexplosivegrowthoccurringoutsideofShanghaiandBeijing—luxurystoreshavebeguntofollow.Therefore,itwillbeincreasinglyimportantforcompaniestounderstandhowbesttoapproachthisdynamicmarket.ThecompetitiontoestablishluxurystoresinChinahasbeenremarkablyintense.Morethanhalf—53percent—ofallpoint-of-salelocationsforluxurygoodsinChinahaveopenedinjustthepastthreeyears.(SeeExhibit1.)OnestrikingaspectoftheChinamarketisthewidevariationamongindividualbrandstrategies:somebrandshavegrownrapidly,othersmoreslowly.Butafewpatternshaveemerged.(SeeExhibit2.)Manysuper-premiumbrands(PatekPhilippe,forexample)havefocusedmainlyonthetopthreecitiesofBeijing,Guangzhou,andShanghai,whereaspremium-pricedbrands,suchasDunhillandBurberry,haveestablishedaconsiderablepercentageoftheirpoint-of-salelocationsintier2andlower-tiercities.1Andalthoughtheluxurymarkethashistoricallyconcentratedinmenswearandbusinessgis(sectorswithdeeppenetrationintoChina’slower-tiercities),wearestartingtoseeashitowardwomen’scategoriesasmorewomenentertheworkforceandbecomemorefamiliarwithluxurybrands.2(SeeExhibit3.)Yetasoenhappenswithrapidexpansion