The Future of Global Automotive Materials

Thefutureofglobalautomotivematerialsdemandto2020Single-userreportThisreportisprovidedstrictlyforindividualuseonly.AutomotiveWorldLtdoffersarewardofupto£10,000forinformationleadingtothesuccessfulprosecutionforillegalcopying,sharingordistributionofthisdocument.UnlawfulusageisstrictlyprohibitedandwillbeenforcedtothefullextentofthelawTosharethisreportwithyourcolleagues,makecopies,hostonyourintranet,orotherwisesharethisreportlegally,pleasecontactus.AutomotiveWorldLtdoffersunlimitedmultipleuserlicencesforjust5timesthesellingpriceofthispublication,andasaresult,offersitsclientshighlycost-effectivesolutionsforlegalandauthorisedsharing/copying/distribution.Toupgradefromthissingleuserreporttoamultipleuserreport,pleasecontact:MarkVillarosaTel:[phone]Fax:[phone]Email:[e-mail]©2008AllcontentcopyrightAutomotiveWorldLtd.Allrightsreserved.Thispublication,noranypartofit,maybecopied,reproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,orbetransmittedinanyformbyanymeanselectronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwisewithoutthepriorpermissionofAutomotiveWorldLtd.Thisreportistheproductofextensiveresearchwork.ItisprotectedbycopyrightundertheCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988.TheauthorsofAutomotiveWorldLtdresearchreportsaredrawnfromawiderangeofprofessionalandacademicdisciplines.Thefactswithinthisreportarebelievedtobecorrectatthetimeofpublicationbutcannotbeguaranteed.Allinformationwithinthisstudyhasbeenreasonablyverifiedtotheauthor’sandpublisher’sability,butneitheracceptresponsibilityforlossarisingfromdecisionsbasedonthisreport.Abouttheauthor:DrPeterWellsisaReaderatCardiffBusinessSchool,whereheisaCo-DirectoroftheCentreforAutomotiveIndustryResearchandleadstheautomotiveindustryresearchprogrammewithinBRASS,alsoinCardiffUniversity.HeisaregularcontributortoAutomotiveWorld.comforwhomhealsoprovidestheweeklyedito[e-mail]@automotive-analysis.co.uk.ContactDetails:AutomotiveWorld14GreatCollegeStreetWestminsterLondonSW1P3RXTelephone:[phone](intl)Fax:[phone]E-Mail:[e-mail]:©2008AutomotiveWorldLtdThisworkmaynotbephotocopiedorotherwisereproducedwithinthetermsofanylicencegrantedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgencyLtdorthePublishersLicensingSocietyLtd.Thismanagementreportmaynotbereproducedinanyformorforanypurposewithoutthepriorknowledgeandconsentofthepublisher.Theviewsexpressedinthisdocumentarenotnecessarilythoseofthepublisher.Whileinformation,adviceandcommentarebelievedtobecorrectattimeofpublication,noresponsibilitycanbeacceptedbythepublisherforitscompletenessoraccuracy.:businessasusualscenario59Theforecastoutcomes:businessasusualscenario65Thealternativescenarios:eco-austerityandtechnopia71CONCLUSIONS74Theoverallmaterialdemandforecast74Materialsdemandandthesupplyindustry75Thekeyoutcomes77IVTheFutureOfGlobalAutomotiveMaterialsDemandTo2020ContentsPage(milliontonnesperannum-mtpa)3Table1.2:Acomparisonoftherelativematerialscontentofthreetypesofcar:steel;aluminium;andplastic(%)4Table1.3:Acomparisonoftherelativematerialscontentofthreetypesofpowertrain:conventional;hybridandpurebatteryelectric(%)5Table1.4:Materialchoicecriteria5Table2.1:Threefuturescenariosfortheautomotiveindustry8Table2.2:Pricesforcrudepetroleum,US$perbarrel(unadjusted),selectedyears9Table2.3:CoverageofglobalwarmingthemesintheNewScientist,2004and200511Figure2.1:TheproportionofNewScientistcoverage12Figure2.2:Likelyproportionofthe140g/kmtargettobereachedbythetop20brandsby2008/09,ifcurrenttrendscontinue13Table2.4:Fueleconomyandgreenhousegasemissionsregimesaroundtheworld14Table2.5:Actualandprojectedgreenhousegasemissionsfornewpassengervehiclesbycountry,2002,2008and2014(CO2equivalentconvertedtoEUNEDCtestcycle;g/km)14Table2.6:Japanesefueleconomytargetsfor2015:lightdutypassengercars15Table2.7:TheproposedchangestotheLondoncongestionchargingscheme16Table2.8:Marketshareofthetoptenmodels,selectedmarkets,1996and200617Table2.9SegmentmarketshareintheUK:1