陕西气象条件与经济行业发展的相关性分析

17320086JOURNALOFNATURALDISASTERSVol.17,No.3Jun.,2008:2007-10-16;:2008-03-15:(70572309);2008(CMATG2008M53),(70121001):(1971-),,,.E2mail:[e-mail]:100424574(2008)03200362051,1,2,3(1.,710015;2.,100081;3.,710049):,,,,GDP,,,,,,:;;;:P4;F22:AAnalysisofcorrelationbetweenmeteorologicalconditionsanddevelopmentofnationaleconomicindustryinShaanxiProvinceLUOHui1,LILiang2xu1,ZHANGGuo2cai2,WANDi2fang3(1.ShaanxiProvincialMeteorologicalBureau,Xian710015,China;2.ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration,Beijing100081,China;3.SchoolofManagement,XianJiaotongUniversity,Xian710049,China)0Abstract:Alongwiththerapiddevelopmentofnationaleconomyinourcountrytheinfluenceofabnormalclimatechange,especiallythemeteorologicaldisastersontheeconomicdevelopmentisgradullyincreasing.Ittriestoquan2titativelydiscusstherelationshipsbetweenshort2termchangeofmeteorologicalconditionsandnationaleconomybyeconometricmethods.TakingShaanxiProvinceasabackground,thecanonicalcorrelationanalysismethodwasap2pliedtocalculatetheircorrelation.Themeteorologicalconditionsarechosenasthecombinationofairtemperatureandprecipitation,andnationaleconomicindustriesincludeagriculture,industry,transport,postandtelecommuni2cationservicesandwholesale/retailtradeservicesandsoon.Theresultsshowthatagriculture,industry,whole2sale/retailtradeservicesarehighmeteorology2influencedindustries,theyallshowstrongrelationshipswithshort2termmeteorologicalchangeandinwhich,agriculturalandwholesale/retailtradeserviceshavepositivecorrelation,whileindustryshowsnegativeone.Keywords:economy;meteorologicalcondition;canonicalcorrelationanalysis;highmeteorologicalimpactindustry,,,,,,,,C-D,[1]C-D,,,,[2],,[3],,,,,1,(pooledtimeseriesandcross-sectiondata),(1986-2005),,101986-20054GDP,:;2,101986-2005,(canonicalcorrelationanaly2sis)1936Hotelling,,,,,,[4],,x=(x1,x2,L,xp),y=(y1,y2,l,yq),u1,v1,,:u1=ai1x1+ai2x2+L+aipxp=axv1=bi1y1+bi2y2+L+biqy2+L+biqyq=by(1)1x,yaxby,,a1,b1:(a1x,b1,y)=max(ax,by)(ax)=1(by)=1(2)a1x,b1yx,y,,xy,,,,,,,22.1,101986-20054GDPu,GDPGDP,DAgrDIndDComDTri101986-20052v1,km2R/km()T(30a30a,1,0),1=0.6365;=733:014368,,11Table1ResultIofcanonicalcorrelationanalysis(coefficientis0.6365)T-Pu1R0154177962125010263T01505193681030100033v1DAgr01039585571920100033DInd-010090386-51280100033DCom-010209062-1143011563DTri01014508341900100033:331%,35%1:u1=05417796R+0.5051936Tv1=0.0395855DAgr-0.0090386DInd+0.014583DTri(3)1(3),RTP0.0260.000,5%1%,,DAgrDIndDTri0.0395855,-0.00903860.0145083,T-7.92,-5.284190,P0.000,;DcomP0.156,GDP,,:,GDP;:,GDP:,GDPGDP,2.2,,101986-20054GDP,GDPGDP,GDP,D=D1-D0,Daggrwth=DAgrDAgr0100%,DagrgrowthDindgrowthDcomgrowthDTrigrowth101986-20052,R()T(30a30a,1,0),1=016382,2=014389,,22Table2ResultIIofcanonicalcorrelationanalysisT-Pu2R015208392117010323T01508291381110100033v2Dagrgrpwth01036610951760100033DIndgrowth-010092283-51310100033Dcomgrowth-010161067-019901326DTrigrowth01013840541390100033:331%,35%8317u2=0.520839R+0.5082913Tv2=0.0366109DAgrgrowth-0.0092283DIndgrowth+0.0138405DTrigrowth(4)2(4),R/kmTP0103201000,5%1%,,DAgrgrowthDIndgrowthDTrigrowth010366109,-010092283010138405,T-5176,-51314139,P01000,;P01326,GDP,,:,GDP;:,GDP:,GDPDComgrowth,21133,:3Table3CorrelationbetweenmeteorologicalconditionsandnationaleconomicindustriesinShanxiProvince(+)(-)(+)(+)(-)(+):(+),(-),GDP,,,(rainfedagriculture),,,,GDP:,GDP:,GDP1986-2005GDP,20aGDP:16.72%35.61%,:GDP,,,GDPGDP,[5],,:,,4,,,,,:,,,,GDP933::[1],,.-[J].,2006,51(14):1735-1736.[2],,.[J].,1998,14(1):36-41.[3],,,.[J].,2007,4:5-14.[4].[M].:,1998:373-395.[5],,JohnNairn,.[J].,2007,18(3):350-356.,(),,6,282009,:14-730417