会计估计变更公司的盈余管理分析

38220083()JournalofZhejiangUniversity(HumanitiesandSocialSciences)Vol.38,No.2Mar.2008[]2007209219[][](70672101);(07BJY027);(NCET20420591)[]1.,,,,;2.,,,,12(1.,310058;2.,518010)[],,,,,,[];;;AnAnalysisontheEarningManagementofPublicCompanieswithAccountingEstimateChangesHanHongling1YanZhiyuan2(1.DepartmentofAccountingandFinancialManagement,ZhejiangUniversity,Hangzhou310058,China;2.DivisionofCorporationSupervision,ShenzhenStockExchange,Shenzhen518010,China)Abstract:TheearningmanagementformeetingtherequirementsofprofitregulationisthemostprevalentbehaviorsamongChinesepubliccompanies.Furthermore,accountingestimatechangesareusuallycloselyaffiliatedwithcorporationpsearningmanagementbehaviors.Thispaper,byapplyingthecomparativeanalysisapproach,discoversthattheperformanceofcompanieswithincorrectaccountingestimatechangesisfarlowerthanthatofcompanieswithcorrectaccountingestimatechanges.Thereareobviousevidencesindicatingthatcompanieswithincorrectaccountingestimatechangesuseddiscretionaryaccrualsanditemsbelowthelinetomanipulatetheirreportedearnings.Theseempiricalevidencesimplicatethatthesecuritiesregulatoryboardshouldpaymoreattentionstotheaccountingestimatechangebehaviorsofcorporationswithpoorperformance,especiallyshouldfocusontheinvestmentrevenueandsubsidyrevenueitemsinthesecorporationpsreportedearningtoensureinformationdisclosurereliabilityforthesecorporations.Keywords:accountingestimatechange;earningmanagement;discretionaryaccrual;itemsblowtheline,,KatherineSchipper,,(disclosuremanagement),,20012004,,,,,,,ThomasD.Fields,,[1],,;,,,(bigbath),ThomasD.Fields,,,(),,:(1),(2),,20012004650,247,403,,(),,:(1),(EPS)(ROE);(2),()1,23712:Schipper,,,,(),,K.Schipper,CommentaryonEarningsManagement,AccountingHorizons,Vol.3,No.12(1989),pp.91-1021EPS(/)ROE(%)ROE(%)(%)(%)0.1300.168-5.868.35-1.302.74116.92134.01-66.17-164.85-0.0040.205-0.237.71-0.347.6630.7952.62-258.70-71.81-0.0930.230-6.087.42-6.196.22-96.2263.94-624.39-42.34-0.3700.233-18.168.04-14.776.6622.74144.04-904.8750.30-0.2070.170-6.183.41-7.992.94470.4125.37-182.05-228.601,,,,,,,,,,,2()()T(Z)()()T(Z)2.490.820.000.00149852.31188776.35144.8542.554828.161808.953.363331.380.372.04331070.84279.37-8.113330.190.06-7.1033323836630.52189235.869.462.27247403247403:33333t1%5%,2,4828116,1808195,(),,,,,30%,,,471()38:(1),(AggregateAccrualsModels);(2),,(SpecificAccrualModels),;(3)(FrequencyDistributionApproach),,,,,,,Jones[2-3],Jones,Jones,,,[4-5],:TAit/Ait-1=a1(1/Ait-1)+a2(REVit/Ait-1-RECit/Ait-1)+a3(PPEit/Ait-1)+a4(IAit/Ait-1)+it,TAitti,[6-7],=-;Ait-1it;REVitti;RECitti;PPEitti;IAitti;it,it,,,:(1)A();(2)C4();(3)C6();(4)C7();(5)C8();(6)C9(,,,,);(7)G();(8)H();(9)I(),,;(10)M(),,,Jones,,(),33,,,,1%0;5712:,,,,,,20032,94-1220,,,,0,,,,3(247)(403)0.06230.0120T(Z)4.39153331.80140.0906-0.0116T(Z)6.2055333-1.82000.0316-0.0047T(Z)2.6498333-0.52380.0159-0.0049T(Z)0.9782-0.7019-0.0245-0.0185T(Z)-2.6734333-2.394833,,,,,DpSouzaSFAS106,SFAS106,,Haw[8]19992003A,A,,671()38,,,SFAS106,,J.DpSouza,J.John&K.Ramesh,TheUseofAccountingFlexibilitytoReduceLaborRenegotiationCostsandManageEarnings,JournalofAccountingandEconomics,Vol.30,No.2(2001),pp.187-208;[9]2002,[10],(),(ROE15%20%)4,42.94392.83910.3435-0.23870.15110.10530.0474-0.0016T(Z)2.4672332.329532.012633-1.17951.11460.23850.86390.01230.26390.14840.07690.0387T(Z)1.745430.97671.4159-0.20920.3919-0.03000.33860.08330.22470.17740.0547-0.0074T(Z)1.0568-1.604731.9411331.765530.77230.67500.06940.02790.30330.18170.06650.0551T(Z)1.740731.9710330.0541-0.63920.39460.23480.1674-0.00770.24490.16450.08000.0004T(Z)1.632831.18491.3472-0.7315:333t5%10%4:(1),,;(2),;,;(3),;(4),,,,,,,,20012004650,,7712::(1);(2),;(3):(1),;(2),,,,:,,,,[][1]ThomasD.Fields,ThomasZ.Lys&L.Vincent,EmpiricalResearchonAccountingChoice,JournalofAccountingandEconomics,Vol.31,No.3(2001),pp.2552307.[2]K.Subramanyam,ThePricingofDiscretionaryAccruals,JournalofAccountingandEconomics,Vol.22,No.3(1996),pp.2492281.[3]E.Bartov,F.Gul&J.Tsui,Discretionary2accrualsModelsandAuditQualification,JournalofAccountingandEconomics,Vol.30,No.3(2000),pp.4212452.[4]:,19999,25235[LuJianqiao,AnEmpiricalStudyonEarningsManagementinChineseCompaniesSufferingLosses,AccountingResearch,No.9(1999),pp.25235.][5]:,20048,81286[ChenWuchao&ZhangHong,EarningManagement,AuditorpsTransferandIndependence,AccountingResearch,No.8(2004),pp.81286.][6]H.Xie,TheMispricingofAbnormalAccruals,TheAccountingReview,Vol.76,No.3(2001),pp.3572373.[7]P.Hribar&D.Collins,ErrorsinEstimatingAccruals:ImplicationsforEmpiricalResearch,JournalofAccountingResearch,Vol.40,No.1(2002),pp.1052134.[8]I.Haw,D.Qi&D.Wu,etal,MarketConsequencesofEarningsManagementofListedFirmsinResponsetoSecurityRegulationinChinapsEmergingCapitalMarket,ContemporaryAccountingResearch,Vol.22,No.1(2005),pp.952140.[9]:A,20052,1012103[ShaoJun&BianHong,AnEmpiricalStudyonEarningsManagementinChineseLosingCompanieswithShareAthroughbelow2the2lineItems,StatisticsandDecision,No.2(2005),pp.1012103.][10]:,200511,69274[LiuYing,PositiveResearchonEarningsManagementofListedCompanyafterSystemI