事故树分析法在城市轨道交通事故分析中的应用

Technology&EconomyinAreasofCommunications20113(65)薛亮1,刘小玲2(1.辽宁省交通高等专科学校,辽宁沈阳110122;2.沈阳地铁有限公司运营分公司,辽宁沈阳110011):从系统工程学的角度出发,将广泛应用于系统安全研究中的事故树分析方法应用到城市轨道交通事故分析中分析城市轨道交通运营事故中脱轨这一典型事故通过分析引起列车脱轨事故各个因素,得出城市轨道交通脱轨事故的发生概率较小,预防和控制难度较大的结论该研究有助于城市轨道交通运营公司对引起该事故发生的各个因素提高警惕意识,也为运营安全管理工作提供理论依据:事故树分析;城市轨道交通;脱轨事故:V353:A:10085696(2011)03009804TheApplicationofFTAMethodinAnalysisofUrbanRailTransitXUELiang1,LIUXiaoling2(1.LiaoningProvinceCollegeofCommunication,Shenyang110122,China;2.ShenyangMetroOperationLimitedCompany,Shenyang110011,China)Abstract:Fromtheperspectiveofsystemsengineering,FaultTreeAnalysismethodwhichiswidelyusedinsystemsecuritystudyisusedforanalysisofurbanrailtransitaccident.Analysisatypicalaccidentofderailmentaccidentinurbanrailtransitoperation.Byanalyzingthevariousfactorswhichcausedthetrainderailmentaccident,cometoaconclusionwhichisthattheprobabilityofurbanrailtransitderailmentaccidentislowandthepreventionandcontroloftransitderailmentisdifficult.Theresearchofthisarticleswillhelpoperatorsofurbanrailtransitincreaseawarenessvariousfactorswhichcausedbyofthederailmentaccidentandprovideatheoreticalbasisforoperationalsecuritymanagement.Keywords:FaultTreeAnalysis;urbanrailtransit;derailmentaccident:20101030:(1982-),,,:.(FaultTreeAnalysis),(Watson),,,,,,,,[1],,,,,[23],,1[4]1);2);3);4);5);6);3,:7);8)(),,,,,22.1[5]1)();2)();3)2.23,,,3.11[6]1:T;A~I,:T,A,B,CATC,D,EATC,F,G,H,IATS,X1,X2ATS,X3ATP,X4ATO,X5,,X6ATP,X7ATO,X8,X9,X10,X11,X12,X13,X14,X15ATS,X16ATS3.21):,,;2):,,,;3);4),,,,,:A=A;A+B=B+A;AB=BA;A+(B+C)=(A+B)+C;A(BC)=(AB)C;A+BC=(A+B)(A+C);A(B+C)=AB+AC;A+A=A;A+AB=A;AA=A;A(AB)=A5)[7]:,,;;;6)9913T=X1+A+B=X1(CD)+(E+F+G)=X1+[(X2+X3+X4)(X5+H)]+[(X6+X7+I)+(X8+X9)+(X10+X11)]=X1+{(X2+X3+X4)[X5+(X12+X13+X14)]}+[X6+X7+(X15+X16)+X8+X9+X10+X11]=X1+[(X2+X3+X4)(X5+X12+X13+X14)]+(X6+X7+X8+X9+X10+X11+X15+X16)=X1+X2X5+X2X12+X2X13+X2X14+X3X5+X3X12+X3X13+X3X14+X4X5+X4X12+X4X13+X4X14+X6+X7+X8+X9+X10+X11+X15+X16,,{X1}{X2,X5}{X2,X12}{X2,X13}{X2,X14}{X3,X5}{X3,X12}{X3,X13}{X3,X14}{X4,X5}{X4,X12}{X4,X13}{X4,X14}{X6}{X7}{X8}{X9}{X10}{X11}{X15}{X16}.3.31):,,2):,3)4):,,,:,225):,,;;6)[8]T!=X!1+A!+B!=X!1(C!D!)+(E!+F!+G!)=X!1+[(X!2+X!3+X!4)(X!5+H)]+[(X!6+X!7+I)+(X!8+X!9)+(X!10+X!11)]=X!1+{(X!2+X!3+X!4)[X!5+(X!12+X!13+X!14)]}+[X!6+X!7+(X!15+X!16)+X!8+X!9+X!10+X!11]=X!1+[(X!2+X!3+X!4)(X!5+X!12+X!13+X!14)]+(X!6+X!7+X!8+X!9+X!10+X!11+X!15+X!16)=X!1+X!2X!5+X!2X!12+X!2X!13+X!2X!14+X!3X!5+X!3X!12+X!3X!13+X!3X!14+X!4X!5+X!4X!12+X!4X!13+X!4X!14+X!6+X!7+X!8+X!9+X!10+X!11+X!15+X!16,,{X!1,X!2,X!3,X!4,X!5,X!6,X!7,X!8,X!9,X!10,X!11,X!15,X!16}{X!1,X!5,X!6,X!7,X!8,X!9,X!10,X!11,X!12,X!13,X!14,X!15,X!16}.3.4,(),,,,,,1003,:(),:1),I(X1)=I(X6)=I(X7)=I(X8)=I(X9)=I(X10)=I(X11)=X(X15)=I(X16).2),(),3),,,,:X2X3X4{X2,X5}{X2,X12}{X2,X13}{X2,X14}{X3,X5}{X3,X12}{X3,X13}{X3,X14}{X4,X5}{X4,X12}{X4,X13}{X4,X14}124,X5X12X13X14123,122,I(X2)=I(X3)=I(X4)I(X5)=I(X12)=I(X13)=I(X14).:I(X1)=I(X6)=I(X7)=I(X8)=I(X9)=I(X10)=I(X11)=I(X15)=I(X16)I(X2)=I(X3)=I(X4)I(X5)=I(X12)=I(X13)=I(X14).41),9,16,,,A~IX1~X162),10,∀#110%,∀#9,90%,3),21,2,21,2,,[1],.[M].:,2007.[2].[J].,2006,19(4):79.[3],.[J].,2004,14(6):105108.[4].[M].:,2008.[5].[M].:,2008.[6],,,.[M].:,2008.[7].[M].:,1999.[8].[M].:,2009.[:]101