中国创新的全球效应：The China effect on global innovation

RESEARCHBULLETINJULY2015THECHINAEFFECTONGLOBALINNOVATIONCopyright©McKinsey&Company2015Inthe25yearssinceitsfounding,theMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)hassoughttodevelopadeeperunderstandingoftheevolvingglobaleconomy.AsthebusinessandeconomicsresearcharmofMcKinsey&Company,MGIaimstoprovideleadersinthecommercial,public,andsocialsectorswiththefactsandinsightsonwhichtobasemanagementandpolicydecisions.MGIresearchcombinesthedisciplinesofeconomicsandmanagement,employingtheanalyticaltoolsofeconomicswiththeinsightsofbusinessleaders.Our“micro-to-macro”methodologyexaminesmicroeconomicindustrytrendstobetterunderstandthebroadmacroeconomicforcesaffectingbusinessstrategyandpublicpolicy.MGI’sin-depthreportshavecoveredmorethan20countriesand30industries.Currentresearchfocusesonsixthemes:productivityandgrowth,naturalresources,labormarkets,theevolutionofglobalfinancialmarkets,theeconomicimpactoftechnologyandinnovation,andurbanization.RecentreportshaveexploredtheeconomiesofJapan,Nigeria,andBrazil;China’sdigitaltransformationande-tailinginChina;thechallengestoglobalgrowthandtogrowthinEurope,India’spathfrompovertytoempowerment;affordablehousing;disruptivetechnologies;theInternetofThings;andtheeconomicsoftacklingobesity.MGIisledbythreeMcKinsey&Companydirectors:Richard Dobbs,James Manyika,andJonathan Woetzel.Michael Chui,Susan Lund,andJaana RemesserveasMGIpartners.ProjectteamsareledbytheMGIpartnersandagroupofseniorfellows,andincludeconsultantsfromMcKinsey&Company’sofficesaroundtheworld.TheseteamsdrawonMcKinsey&Company’sglobalnetworkofpartnersandindustryandmanagementexperts.Inaddition,leadingeconomists,includingNobellaureates,actasresearchadvisers.ThepartnersofMcKinsey&CompanyfundMGI’sresearch;itisnotcommissionedbyanybusiness,government,orotherinstitution.ForfurtherinformationaboutMGIandtodownloadreports,pleasevisit’sGreaterChinaPracticecomprisesofficeslocatedinBeijing,HongKong,Shanghai,ShenzhenandTaipei.McKinseyhascompletednearly2000projectsinGreaterChinawithinthepasttwodecades,helpingleadinglocalenterprisesimprovetheirmanagementskillsandboosttheirglobalcompetitiveness,aswellasadvisingmultinationalcompaniesseekingtoexpandtheirbusinessintheregion.Visit|ShanghaiYougangChen|HongKongJamesManyika|SanFranciscoErikRoth|ShanghaiJeongminSeong|ShanghaiJasonLee|HoustonJULY2015THECHINAEFFECTONGLOBALINNOVATIONMcKinseyGlobalInstituteii©AlamyTHECHINAEFFECTONGLOBALINNOVATIONHowinnovativeistheChineseeconomy?DoesChinahavetheinnovativecapacitytoraiseproductivity,createmorehighvalue-addedjobs,andachieveitseconomicaspirations?Bytraditionalmetrics,theanswerwouldclearlybe“yes”—Chinaspentmorethan$200 billiononresearchanddevelopmentin2014,thesecond-largestinvestmentbyanycountryinabsoluteterms(andabout2 percentofGDP).Itsuniversitiesgraduatemorethan1.2 millionengineerseachyear—morethanthenextfivecountriescombined.Chinaalsoleadsinpatentapplications,withmorethan730,000in2013.However,ifwelookattheactualimpactofinnovation—asmeasuredbythesuccessofcompaniesinglobalmarkets—thepictureismixed.1Intheindustrieswhereinnovationrequiresoriginalinventionsorengineeringbreakthroughs,suchasbrandedpharmaceuticalsandautos,Chinahassmallsharesofglobalmarkets.Butinindustrieswhereinnovationisaboutmeetingunmetconsumerneedsordrivingefficienciesinmanufacturing—appliancesandsolarpanels,forexample—Chinaisflourishing.China’smassiveconsumermarketandunmatchedmanufacturingecosystemgiveituniqueadvantagesinthesesectors.Perhapsthemoststrikingexamplesofthissuccessareine-commerceandconsumerelectronics,wherecompaniessuchasAlibabaandXiaomiarerapidlyemergingastopglobalplayers.Thisresearch,basedonanimpact-drivenviewofinnovation,concludesthatChinadoeshavethepotentialtobecomeaglobalinnovationleader.Althoughithasnotyetseenthepayoff,ChinahasmadethenecessaryinvestmentsinR&Dandeducationtoimproveitsperformanceinscience-andengineeringbasedindustries.China’ssuccessinhigh-speedrailandtelecommunicationsequipmentprovethat,undertherightcircumstances,Chinesecompaniescanbeglobalcompetitorsinengineering-basedindustries.And,evennow,inscience-basedindustriessuchasbiopharmaceuticals,Chinesecompaniesareharnessingthescaleandspeedofthehomemarkettobecomemorenimbleandstrongerinnovators.Withtherightpoliciesinplacetosupportentrepreneurism,encouragemarket-basedcompetitioninmoreindustries,andmakeChinamoreattractivetotopsciencetalent,Chinacansucceedinallformsofinnovation.Timingwillbecritical:withslowingGDPgrowth,anagingpopulation,anddecliningreturnsonmassivefixedinvestments,Chinamustfindwaystoraiseproductivity.Innovationiskeytothissustainablegrowthpath.1Innovationcanbedefinedandanalyzedinmanydifferentways.Onecommonapproachistoassessnovelty(imitation,invention,andinnovation).Anotherapproachistoassessthetypeofinnovationactivities(process,product,marketing,andorganizationinnovation);seeOsloManual,OECD,November2005.Otherresearchersfocusonthenatureofinnovation(disruptivevs.sustaining).Forexample,seeClaytonChristensen,TheInnovator’sSolu