世界前景中的中国证券市场

ResearchReportbySheldonGao,PhD.SeniorDirector,[e-mail]TOCKMARKETINAGLOBALPERSPECTIVESEPTEMBER2002ExecutiveSummaryChina’sstockmarkethasexperiencedamazinggrowthsinceestablishingitstwoexchangesin1990,althoughthegrowthhasbeenunevenandirregular,andthemarketremainsintheearlystagesofitsdevelopment.ThisreportseekstoidentifythekeycharacteristicsofChina’smarketandhowtheycombinetoformthemostdynamicandintriguingdevelopingmarketintheworld.ThecurrentstructureofChina’smarketisoneofitskeyobstaclestofurtherdevelop-ment.Thereareveryfewstocksthatwouldfitthedefinitionof“blue-chip”trad-ingonChina’smainlandexchanges.Whereasmostdevelopedmarketsaredomi-natedbyalimitednumberoflarge-capstocks,China’smarketiscrampedbyamultitudeofsmall-capstocks.Thisfeatureallowsforincreasedspeculationandhigherturnoverforbothinvestorsandindexes,amongotherproblems.ArelatedmatteristherelianceofChina’smarketonexternalexpansion,thatis,expansionthroughtheissuanceofnewsharesratherthantheappreciationinvalueofexistingstocks.Sincethesesharesgenerallydonotexperiencesustainedgrowth,oftenbecauseofmarketmanipulation,theycontributetothedominanceofsmallersizestocksinChina’smarket.Ultimately,thecurrentstructureisamajorobstacletothecreationofviableindex-relatedproductsinChina.Anotherissueisthefactthat,despitethetremendousgrowthofthestockmarket,China’scompaniesarenotoperatingatahighlevelofprofitability.Theyareplaguedbypoorearningsandlowdividendyields.China’scompaniesneedtoincreasetheirprofitabilityiftheyaretocompeteinglobalmarkets.Finally,governmentseemstohavetoomuchinfluenceonthemarket.ItkeepsatightcontrolontheissuanceofIPOs,and,asaresultofwidespreadgovernmenthold-ings,manylistedcompaniesinChinahaveverylowfree-floatratios.Meanwhile,dueatleastinparttotheunusualmarketstructure,marketmanipulationandspeculationarecommon.ThesolutionissimplyamatterofstrengtheningcontrolsincertainareaswhilerelaxingtheminothersinordertofosteranenvironmentinwhichChina’sstockmarketcancontinuetothrive.DOWJONESINDEXESChinaStockMarketinaGlobalPerspectiveSeptember20022CONTENTSCHARTSANDTABLES4Introduction6AbnormalPerformance9TremendousVolatility12InsulatedMarket14SubstantialGovernmentOwnership17IrregularExpansion19InfluenceofIPOs21TypicalEmergingMarket24PyramidStructure30UnstableCore33OutperformanceofMicroStocks36IncredibleSpeculation38ManufacturingOrientation40DisappointingEarningsofCompanies44LowDividendYield47Conclusions6PerformanceofMajorIndexesWorldwide(1994—2001)7FirstEightYearsoftheDowJonesChinaIndex8TenBiggestUpandDownDaysintheChinaMarket8CrucialRoleoftheTenBestDaysintheChinaMarket9PerformanceofChinaIndexesinDomesticandOverseasMarkets10VolatilityofMajorIndexesWorldwide(1994—2001)11BullandBearMarketsinChina(1994—2001)11BullandBearMarketsintheU.S.andChina(1896—2001)13AnnualReturnofMajorIndexesWorldwide13CorrelationBetweenMajorIndexesWorldwide14TrackingErrorBetweenMajorIndexesWorldwide15FloatRatiosofMajorStockMarketsWorldwide15Free-FloatRatiosoftheChinaMarket(%)DOWJONESINDEXESChinaStockMarketinaGlobalPerspectiveSeptember,2002316FloatRatiovs.StockReturninChina’sMarket16GovernmentOwnershipintheU.S.andJapan18StockMarketExpansionsintheU.S.andChina19TheRoleofIPOsintheU.S.andChinaStockMarkets20IPOChangevs.IndexPerformanceinChina’sMarket23ShareholderStatisticsintheU.S.andJapanStockMarkets24CorrelationBetweenMajorChinaIndexes25MarketConcentrationMeasuredby%ofStocks26MarketConcentrationMeasuredby#ofStocks26MarketCoverageofDowJonesCountryTitansIndexes27MarketCoverageofChinaStocks(January31,2002)27ComparisonofMarketConcentrationinChinaandRestoftheWorld28TrackingErrorBetweenMajorChinaIndexes29StockNumber:DowJonesGlobalIndexesandChinaIndexes30TurnoverRateofBlue-ChipIndexesinMarketValue31TurnoverofBlue-ChipIndexesinNumberofStocks32Benchmarkvs.Blue-ChipIndexesinChina33PerformanceComparisonofChinaIndexes(1994–2001)34CompositeIndexvs.Stock-SelectedIndexinaGlobalMarket35PerformanceComparisonofBenchmarkvs.TradableIndexes37TurnoverComparisonofSeveralStockExchanges38ComparisonofSectorRepresentation39SectorRepresentationofChina’sStockIndexes40P/EofBlue-ChipIndexesinSeveralMajorMarkets42P/BofBlue-ChipIndexesinSeveralMajorMarkets43P/EandP/BofTOPIXinJapan43RatioofStockMarketCapitalizationOverGDPinChina44SummaryofIndexPayoutPercentageOverthePastTwoYears45PayoutRatioandDividendYieldofSomeBlue-ChipIndexes47ComparisonofSeveralNewEmergingMarketsCHARTSANDTABLES(CONTINUED)DOWJONESINDEXESChinaStockMarketinaGlobalPerspectiveSeptember20024IntroductionChina’sstockmarkethasexperiencedtremendousgrowthanddevelopmentinthetenyearssincetheinceptionsoftheShanghaiStockExchange(December19,1990)andtheShenzhenStockExchange(December1,1990).Thenumberoflistedcompaniesreached1,160attheendof2001—upfromonly10companiesintheearly1990s—withatotalmarketcapitalizationof525.6billionUSD.Inaddition,morethan65millioninvestmentaccountsareonrecordasoftheendof2001.However,twosetsofphenomenahavebeenidentifiedinmediareports.Oneistherapidgrowthofthestockmarket:almost1,200listedcompanies,swellingnum