黑莓公司对手机市场前景分析

StrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnly1FY’12CompetitiveOverviewNorthAmericaRIMCompetitiveIntelligenceNovember2010StrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlyTheCITeamWhatwedoWhatwedo•Competitiveresearch•Quantitativeanalysis•CIMaster,NPI,GfK•Pricingandmacro•Forecasts•Technologyinvestigation•Deviceanalysis&acquisitionOuroutputs•WeeklyCInewsletter•~1,300members•Commissionedresearch•CInowdeliveredviaChalk!•CIWebsite•Speakingengagementsgo/ciStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlyTheCITeamProjects&ProgramsCerebro•Toolforaccessinglatestsmartphone+shipment&pricinginformation•Providesasnapshotofthelatestperiod•GlobaldatafromGFK,IDC&Majestic•AccessviayourBlackBerryUsageStatsApp•Toolcreatedtodevelopnewbatterylifemodelforsmartphones•RunsinthebackgroundontheBB•Trackswhatfeaturesarebeingused•PushedfromtheBESStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlyCalendarQ22010resultsGlobalMobilephoneshipmentsinCYQ32010:RIMFallstothe#5positionQtr/Qtr%-5.4%+10.1%+68.4%-0.6%-7.2%+9.7%+11.9%Source:IDCQ310Preliminarydata–Nov2010GlobalMobilePhoneMarketRIMholdsthe#5positionStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnly5#1smartphoneinNorthAmericaRIMis#3smartphonevendorworldwide#1smartphoneinLatinAmerica#1smartphoneinUK#1historically#1sinceQ1CY’10Source:CIMaster,GfK,IDCMiddleEastIndonesiaSingaporeThailandFastestgrowthYoYintotalmarketQ110MalaysiaTurkeyRIMpositionWorldwideRIMholdsthe#5positionStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlySmartphone+tooutsellDumbphonesinFY12MobilephonemarketSmartphonestooutselldumbphonesbyFY12Smartphone+CAGR:+51%DumbphonesCAGR:-13%AlsoavailableatcountrylevelHistoricalSource:CIMaster,IDC,CanalysStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlyHistoricalSmartphone+marketforecastAndroidontheupswingAlsoavailableatcountrylevel3125166918541,030Source:CIMaster,IDC,CanalysopportunityEveryonegrowingshipments,butnotatthesamerate.TherewillbemoreAndroiddevicesshippinginQ3FY11thanRIMdevicesStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlyOnlyASP$200$200$20016.5%8.5%9%17.5%10.9%52.3%63.2%AllMobilePhoneTAM$20037%Shipments%ofShipmentsQ2CY2010%ofProfits79%4.7%4.5%1.5%9%5.9%13.5%89%ProfitDUMBPHONESWANNABES$200$200PURESMARTPHONESPricingandprofitability-GlobalThemoneyisinsmartphonesSMARTCANDYBARS$2001.85%1.27%RIM&AppleownthemajorityofthisspaceStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnly9NorthAmerica:Smartphone+segmentTotalshipments&BlackBerryshareSource:CIMasterStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlyNorthAmerica:Smartphone+segmentBrandshareSource:CIMasterStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnly11•Includeslateform-factordeviceswithcolourtouchscreendisplaysbetween5.1–12inchesonthediagonal,withorwithoutcellularconnectivity•RunOS’soptimizedformobility,whichexcludesPC-orientedoperatingsystems•Approximately60releasedandupcomingtabletsidentifiedgloballyfrom47manufacturers•MostproductsareAndroid-basedinlow-midtier•Meego(Nokia),webOS(HP)andWindowsPhone7expectedin1H2011•Majoranticipatedcompetitivereleases•October2010:SamsungGalaxyTab•Q12011:HTC,Nokia,Motorola,HP/Palm,LGThetabletmarketManytabletsfrommanycompetitorsStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlyCITeambelievesanalystsnumbersaretooconservative,asitisbelievedApplealreadyshipped8Munits(endofSeptember)12•Marketdynamicsareuncertain:•Operatorcommitmenttosubsidyandconsumerappetiteforanotherdevicecategory(anddataplan!)•Longtermsustainabilityformanymanufacturersgivenpriceerosion•ImportanceofanintegratedserviceofferingtoattractconsumersanddrivemarginThetabletaddressablemarketTabletmarketgoingtotakeoffStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlyLTE1080p3DdisplayMobileTVDualfrontcamerasGesturecontrolVideochatFlexibledisplayPicoprojectorHome/deviceControl&syncTabletGyroCloudservices3DcaptureNFC3DgamingDLNA/HDMINowNext18months24+monthsTechnologyTrendsRoadmapLookingahead24monthsFoldingdisplayStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnly14MarketTrendsHardwareDisplay•Increasedresolution•HDdisplayresolution•3DdisplayandcaptureProcessor•1GHz•Multicore•Improvedgraphics•DedicatedICteamsNFC•Shortrangeconnection,contactlesspayments•Nokiamodels2011•100trialsin38countriesStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnly15MarketTrendsHardwareHomesync/control•GoogleTV•AndroidappasremotecontrolCamera•Frontfacingupto3MP•Rearfacingupto12MP•AdvancedprocessingMultimediaSharing•DLNAsupportinSamsung,Nokia,Motorola,LG,Android•1080pHDplayback2011•MicroHDMIStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnly16MarketTrendsEmergingTechnologies•FreetoAirinNorthAmerica,25citytrialsinprogress•ChinagovernmentstandardPicoprojector•Size,lightintensity•Instantcontentsharing•SuitlargerdevicesMobileTVPedestriannavigation•Improvingalgorithms•NokiademoatNokiaWorld•EnablesbetterlocationbasedservicesStrictlyConfidential–RIMInternalUseOnlyGoogleAndroidStrategicimperatives2011•Providethebestmobileinternetandsearchexperience•ImproveAndroiduserexperience,addnewuniqueservices•MigrateAndroiduptolargerformfactors(tablets,netbooks)anddownintovalue-pricedsmartphonetiers•Ignitemobileadvertisingmarket•Widengapwithlocationservices•Laymoregroundworkforvoice-basedsearchEverythingfuelstheGoogleadvertisingengineStrictlyCon