第七章货币供求与货币市场均衡1

货币供求与货币市场均衡ThePurposeOfThisLesson•Istofirstdescribehowourmoneyandbankingsystemworks.•Afterthat,wewillshowyouhowmonetarypolicymaybeusedtofightrecessionsandinflation.TwoQuestionsMonetaryorFiscalPolicy?MonetarismorKeynesianism?•We’llexplainhowMonetarismemergedinthe1970stochallengeKeynesianism.ADefinitionChangesintheMoneySupplyExpandtheEconomyContracttheEconomyWhatisMoney?•That’seasytoanswer,youmaysay.–It’sthecashinourpockets.•Butmoneyactuallyhasamuchbroaderdefinition.•Itisanythingthatcanbewidelyusedandacceptedinexchangeforothergoodsandservices.WhatisMoney?TheFourFunctionsOfMoney•Moneyisthemost“liquid”ofassets,meaningitisthemostspendable.•Ithasfourmajorfunctions.AMediumofExchange•Withoutmoney,wewouldhavetousethebartersystem.AStandardofValue$1=$1$2AStoreofValue•Peoplecanholdontomoneythisyearandthenspenditnextyear.•Moneyperformsthisfunctionleastwell.–Mostmethodsofholdingmoneydonotyieldthesamekindofmonetaryreturnsthatyougetbystoringwealthintheformofotherlessliquidassetssuchasstocksandbonds.•Inthepresenceofinflation,moneycanrapidlyloseitsvalue.•Standardofdeferredpayment延期支付标准货币制度的演进•商品货币：出了具有交易媒介等货币功能之外，本身还具有商品价值之货币。•条件：耐久性、可分割、同质性或一致性、轻便、供给稳定、适度缺乏性。•货币数量说与Gresham’Law•强制货币：政府赋予无限法偿地位之货币。•无限法偿（LegalTender）•铸币与存款货币MeasureComponentsM1CurrencyincirculationoutsideofbankvaultsDemanddepositsatcommercialbanksNOWandATSaccountsCreditunionsharedraftsDemanddepositsatmutualsavingsbanksTraveler’schecks(nonbank)M2M1plus:SavingsaccountsTimedepositsoflessthan$100,000Money-marketmutualfundsM3M2plus:Timedepositslargerthan$100,000RepurchaseagreementsOvernightEurodollarsLM3plusotherliquidassets,forexample:TreasurybillsU.S.savingsbondsBankers’acceptancesTermEurodollarsCommercialpaper.HowisMoneyDefined?M1M2L==+CheckingAccountsCashSavingsAccountsTimeDepositsMoneyMarketMutualFunds共同基金ShortTermFiscalAssetsTraveler'sChecks++=+M1+++M1M2WhyTheseDefinitionsMatter•Monetarypolicyuseschangesinthesupplyofmoneytocontractorexpandtheeconomy.•Inordertoconductmonetarypolicyeffectively,wemusthaveaverygoodideaofwhatwearechangingwhenwechangethemoneysupply.AbsoluteamountPercentofconceptMoneydefinitionorconcept(billions)M1M2M3Currency(coinsandpapermoney)$41439%10%8%plusCheckabledeposits643611612equalsM1$1057100%plusNoncheckablesavingsdepositsincludingMMDAs13143325plusSmalltimedeposits9622418plusMoneymarketmutualfundbalances(MMMFs)6311612equalsM2$3964100%plusLargetimedeposits124124equalsM3$5205100%(percentagesmaynotaddupto100%duetorounding)•EconomicresearchhasshownthatM2isthedefinitionofmoneythatmostcloselycorrelateswithchangesinthepricelevelandeconomicactivity.InterestRates•Whenweexaminehowmoneyaffectseconomicactivity,wewillfocusontheimpactoftheinterestrate.•Technically,theinterestrateistheamountofinterestpaidperunitoftimeexpressedasapercentageoftheamountborrowed.•Interestisthepaymentmadefortheuseofmoney,anditisoftencalledthe“priceofmoney.”AnExampledeposit$2000Attheendoftheyear,thebankwillhavepaid$80ininterestintoyouraccount.Yourdepositwillbeworth$2080.InterestRates•Thereisreallyavastarrayofinterestrates.•Therearethreemajorreasonswhyinterestsratesdiffer.TermoftheLoan•Thisreferstothelengthoftimeuntilitmustbepaidoff.•Thiscanrangefromovernightloanstoupto30yearsormoreforahomemortgage.DegreeofRisk•Someloans,suchasthesecuritiesoftheU.S.government,arevirtuallyriskless.•Infact,theinterestrateonU.S.governmentsecuritiesisoftencalledthe“riskless”rate.RiskierRates•Veryriskyinvestmentsbearasignificantchanceofdefaultornon-paymentinclude:–thesecuritiesofbusinessesclosetobankruptcy,–citieswithshrinkingtaxbases,–orcountrieslikeRussiawithlargeoverseasdebtandunstablepoliticalsystems.•Theseriskierinvestmentsmightpay1,2,oreven5percentormoreperyearabovethe“riskless”rate.Liquidity•Anassetissaidtobeliquidifitcanbeconvertedintocashquicklywithlittlelossofvalue.•Incontrast,becauseofthehigherriskanddifficultyofextracting抽取、取出aborrower’sinvestment,illiquidassetsorloansusuallycommandhigherinterestrates.NominalInterestRate•Thenominalinterestratemeasurestheyieldindollarsperyearperdollarinvestment.•ButaswithnominalGDP,inflationcanmakethedollararubberyanddistortedyardstick衡量尺度.RealInterestRate•Itcorrectsforinflation.•Rreal=Rnominal-Inflation.•Thus,ifthenominalinterestrateis8percentperyearandtheinflationrateis3percentperyear,what’stherealinterestrate?RealInterestRate•It’s5percent.•Itcorrectsforinflation.•Rreal=Rnominal-Inflation.•Thus,ifthenominalinterestrateis8percentperyearandtheinflationrateis3percentperyear,what’stherealinterestrate?Therust铁锈色lineshowsthenominalinterestrateonsafeshort-termsecuritieswhiletheblackcurveshowstherealinterestrate.Notethatrealinterestratesdrifteddownwarduntil1980.However,after1980,theymovedupsharply.Lookattheyearssuchas1973through1975wheninvestorswereactuallyearninganegativerateofrealinterest--eventhoughnominalrateswerehigh.SourcesofMoneyDemand•Sofarwehavetalkedaboutthefunctionsofmoneyandthepriceofmoney.•Themajordeterminantsofmoneydemandareknownasthetransactionsdemandandtheassetdemand.TransactionsDemandNominalGDP•Thebasicdeterminantoftheamountofmoneydemanded