企业经营中的不确定性（三）

:2003212211.:(19562),,;,(430074).:(2002BA807B);(20002852).1(1.,430074):,;;.:;;;;:TU746:A:167227037(2004)0120005205(60%)(50100)(),[1,2].19802000,57m2,148m2,22m2,202035m2.,2010,152552m221m2.,[3].,,[4,5].,..11.1,[4].Mp,Mc,Mm,Mcr.:,,;,;,;,[6].:Mp,;Mc,;Mm,Mcr,..1.2,,[7,8],.:,,,,.21120043()J.ofHUST.(UrbanScienceEdition)Vol.21No.1Mar.2004©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved..,;;.,,,.,;,.2,,,[9]..2.1M(t),M(t),.M(t)=P{Tt},(1),T;t.[10].,,M(0)=0;,,M()1.,,.,M(t)=limNn(t)N,(2),N();n(t)t.N,Md(t)M(t),Md(t)=(n(t))öN.(3)2.2m(t)M(t)m(t)=dM(t)dt=lim$t0M(t+$t)-M(t)$t;M(t)=t0m(t)dt.(4)(3),md(t)=n(t+$t)-n(t)N$t=$n(t)N$t,(5),$n(t)$t,.m(t).2.3Mi(T),,[1].:L1(t),80100,5565;L2(t),;L3(t),,,;L4(t),,.Mi,Lj(t),T,Mi(T)={Lj(t)},(6),Mi(T)i,i=1,2,3,4,5,;Lj(t),j=1,2,3,4.,.2.4,DpDeDs[11].,D(t),D(t)=F(Dp,De,Ds).(7)[11][2].,,V=FöC,(8)6()2004©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,V;F;C.(8):,;,.,,tDt,Dt1V.(9)K=FDt,F=köDt.,M(t)t,Dt=D(t)t,F=f{M(t)},f{M(t)}=köDt,D(t)f{M(t)}=k,M(t)=f-1{köD(t)},,:,;,.,.3[1214],.,.,[9].,.3.1,.a.M{ct..,,,,M{ct,M{ct=0tm(t)dt.,N,M{ct=Ni=1tiN.,M{ct=ni=1KiM{ctini=1Ki,,Kii;M{ctii..b.Mmaxct..,,,.,Mmaxct=-M{ctln[1-M(t)].Mmaxct,M(t)95%90%.M(t)=0.95,Mmaxct=3M{ct,23.,.c.M{pt.,M{pt=mj=1fpjM{ptjmj=1fpj,,fpjj,3;M{ptjj;m.,,.d.M{mt..t,,,;,.71:©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.M{mt=lk=1CkM{mtklk=1Ck,,Ckk;M{mtkk;l.,,,.e.M{.,,M{=KM{ct+fpM{pt+CM{mtK+fp+C,,K=ni=1Ki,;fp=mj=1fpi;C=lk=1Ci.,.3.2a.Am.,Am=MTBMMTBM+M{,,MTBM;M{..b.Fm.,,Fm=t2t1{f2(t)-f1(t)}dt,,f1(t);f2(t).,.3.3,,,[15]..a.Cq.,,Cq=CiöNn,,Ci;Nn.b.Cf.[16],Cf=1NnBfm1(1+i)Nn-1i(1+i)NnQ,,Bf;m1;Nn;BöNn;i;Q;(1+i)N-1i(1+i)N.3.4,.,Mk,Mk=(VböVc)A,,Vb;Vc,;A,,..,,.3.5,.Ai,()TBF,,Ai=TBFö(TBF+Mct)=1ö(1+MctöTBF)=1ö(1+MTUT),,Mct;MTUT(),.,MTUT,.,Ai,TBFMct.,,,;8()2004©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,Mct.,,,.4..:,,,,.[1].[M].:,1994.[2],.[J].,1999,4(5):48254.[3],.()[J].,2002,(1):37241.[4]A.HSpedding.BuildingMaintenanceEconomicsandManagement(Conference)[M].TheUniversi2tyofPress,Cambridge,UK.1987[5].()[J].,1999,(5):54257.[6]JGJ2125299,[S].[7].[M].:,1995.[8]BarrieChanten&PeterSwallow.BuildingMainte2nanceManagement[M].HartnollsLtd.,Bod2ming,Cornwall,UK.1996[9].[D].:,2003.[10]Tarelko,Wieslaw.Controlmodelofmaintaina2bil2itylevel[J].ReliabilityEngineeringandSystemSafety,1995,47:85291.[11],.[J].,1998,19():87290.[12].[M].:,1995.[13]Higa,Kunihiko.Anapproachtoimprovingthemaintainabilityofexistingrulebases[J].DecisionSupportSystems,1996,18:23231.[14],.[M].:,1990.[15].[J].,1999,16(4):5210.[16]JGJ247288,[S].StudyofHousingMaintainabilityandDecisionofMaintainabilityWANGXiao2ming1(1.SchoolofCivilEng.&Mechanics,HUST,Wuhan430074,China)Abstract:Thecharacteristicsofhousingmaintenanceareanalyzed.Thedefinitionandresearchfocus2ingonhousingmaintainabilityarepresented.Thedecisionfunctionsofhousingformaintainability,densityofmaintainability,cycleofmaintainabilityandtherelativedecisionfunctionbetweenhousingageingandhousingmaintainabilityareestablished.Thedecisionfactorsofhousingfortimeofmainte2nance,standardofmaintenance,costofmaintenanceandattainabilityofmaintenanceareestablished.Thecooperativerelationshipofdecisionfactorsofhousingmaintainabilityarediscussed.Keywords:housing;maintainability;functionofmaintainability;factorofmaintainability;decision91:©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.