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UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIEDAU/AFFELLOW/NNN/2004-00AIRFORCEFELLOWS(SDE)AIRUNIVERSITYTHEUNITEDSTATES:PREDATORORPROTECTORbyGinaM.Grosso,Colonel,UnitedStatesAirForceAResearchReportSubmittedtoAirForceFellows,CADRE/ARInPartialFulfillmentoftheGraduationRequirementsAdvisor:TitleFirstM.LastAUAdvisor:_________________________WeatherheadCenterforInternationalAffairs,HarvardUniversityMaxwellAirForceBase,AlabamaApril2004UNCLASSIFIEDiiDisclaimerTheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthoranddonotreflecttheofficialpolicyorpositionoftheUSgovernmentortheDepartmentofDefense.InaccordancewithAirForceInstruction51-303,itisnotcopyrighted,butisthepropertyoftheUnitedStatesgovernment.UNCLASSIFIEDiiiContentsDISCLAIMER……………………………………………………………..………….…..iiPREFACE…………………………………………………………………..………….…ivABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………..……….….vCHAPTER1-INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………..…..1CHAPTER2-2002NATIONALSECURITYSTRATEGY……………….…….……3CHAPTER2-PREEMPTIONANDINTERNATIONALLAW……………….……..11CHAPTER3-THEJUSTWARTHEORY………………………………..………..….18CHAPTER4-ADEQUACYOFTHESTRATEGY….……………………..…….…..26CHAPTER6-CONCLUSION………………………………………………..…..…...41APPENDIXA……………………………………………………………………....……44APPENDIXB…………………………………………………………………..……….49APPENDIXC……………………………………………………………………………50APPENDIXD……………………………………………………………………………53BIBLIOGRAPHY…………………………………………………………….………….55UNCLASSIFIEDivPrefaceItisjustnowthatIambeginningtounderstandhowprofoundlyIwasimpactedbytheeventsof11September2001.IwasinthePentagonwhenitwashit,butmyevacuationwastotallyuneventful.WhatwasnotuneventfulwasworkingattheFamilyAssistanceCentertryingtohelpthefamiliesofpeoplekilledbothontheairplaneitselfandinthePentagon.Observingthesorrowexperiencedbythefamilymembersandfriendsofinnocentcivilianskilledintheattacksparkedanunbelievablerageinme,whichhassparkedakeeninterestintheUnitedStateseffortstocombatterrorism.ThisinturnsparkedadesiretounderstandthenewNationalSecurityStrategypublishedapproximatelyoneyearaftertheattackandtogainabetterofunderstandingofthecontroversysurroundingits“preemptivedefense”policy.AsbothacitizenoftheUnitedStatesandamemberoftheprofessionofarms,itisimportanttometounderstandandassesstheadequacyofUnitedStatesplanstoaddressthethreatsitiscurrentlyfacing.Theresearchreflectedinthispaperwasanattempttodojustthat.Perhapsintryingtounderstandmyownthoughtsonthisissue,Icanshedsomelightforotherstoo.IwouldliketothankDonaldHalstead,theWritingandResearchAdvisorfortheWeatherheadCenterforInternationalAffairsFellowsProgram,HarvardUniversity,forhisassistance,encouragement,feedback,andsupport.Histimeandeffortsignificantlyimprovedmyargumentsandthewaytheyarepresented.Iwouldalsoliketothankmyresearchassistant,LeahLittman,whorespondedwithlightspeedtoallmyrequests,whichallowedmetofocusmyeffortsonabsorbingandanalyzingtheinformationsheprovided.UNCLASSIFIEDvAU/HARVARD/WCFIA/2004-04AbstractTheUnitedStatesdevelopedanewNationalSecurityStrategy(NSS)inSeptember2002,whicharticulatestheUnitedStateintenttoactpreemptivelytopreventterroristorroguestatesfromusingweaponsofmassdestructionagainsttheUnitedStates,anditsfriendsandallies.ThisstrategictoolhasreceivedalotofattentionandledmanyofthesesamefriendsandalliestovoiceconcernoverwhatmanyconsidertheUnitedStatesillegitimateuseofforce.ThispaperexaminestheNSSandevaluatesitsconceptsinlegalandmoralterms,andassesseswhetherthestrategyisappropriateforthecurrentsecurityenvironment.Myresearchpredominantlyconsistedofreviewingthevoluminousliteratureongrandstrategy,internationallawandtheJustWartheory.Inaddition,toexpandmyintellectualbaseIattendedmanyseminarsofferedinthegreaterBostonacademiccommunityontheroleoftheUnitedStatesintheworldtoday.MyresearchfoundthattheNSSdoesaddapreemptionoptiontothetoolbox,alongwiththemoretraditionalandstillimportanttoolsofdeterrenceandcontainment.However,untiltheconceptof“imminence”isredefinedintheinternationalcommunity,thepreemptiveuseofforcewillmostlikelynotbeincompliancewithinternationallaw.Policy-makerswillthereforehavetolegitimizetheuseofforcethroughmoralarguments,andIarguethattheJustWartheoryservesasausefulcompassinassessingandcraftingthosearguments.UNCLASSIFIEDviAfterassessingtheNSS,IfoundthatitdoesadequatelyaddressthegravestthreattoUnitedStatessecurity—aterroristusingweaponsofmassdestructionagainsttheUnitedStates,itsalliesandfriends.However,thelackofanyprioritizationamongthemanygoalsarticulatedinthestrategyisaconcernandwillmakeithardertosuccessfullyexecutethestrategy.UNCLASSIFIED1Chapter1IntroductionWewilldefendthepeacebyfightingterroristsandtyrants.Wewillpreservethepeacebybuildinggoodrelationsamongthegreatpowers.Wewillextendthepeacebyencouragingfreeandopensocietiesoneverycontinent.—PresidentGeorgeW.BushOn17September2002,ayearaftertheterroristattacksinNewYorkandWashington,theUnitedStatesannouncedanewNationalSecurityStrategy(NSS).JohnLewisGaddisarguesthatthisstrategyreflectsaredefinition,foronlythethirdtimeinAmericanhistory,ofwhatitwilltaketoprotecttheUnitedStatesfromasurpriseattack.1Thestrategyisnotwithoutcontroversy.ItopenlystatesthattheUnitedStatesintendstoactpreemptive