中国环保投资与国民经济增长的互动关系_王珺红

20082122(534544)「」Nov.,2008VOI.30No.2122`,(,266071):GDP(GDP);GDPGDP。,。,。GDP。,。,。:;GDP;;:F123:A:10025766(2008)21/22015706、《2008》,“,,”。,《2008》,。,“”13750,GDP1.16%。,,、,,。,,。,,,,,。20(GDP),、(ECM),,,。、。,。3。,。.:20080823:“”(H06YB07)。:(1975),,。,,、。Emial:[e-mail];(1982),,。.Email:[e-mail]。2008.2122ECONOM!CMANAGEMENT157,、(2005),,:(l),,、、,;(2),;(3),。,、(1995),,:;。,,,。··(1997)、、、、、OECDGNP,GNP,GNP,,GNP。,GNPGNP1%。,,0.3%~0.5%。,。(1990),。。,。;(1970)231582008.2122。,,。,,。,,,,。,,。、《19862006》《》(GDP),《》《2007》,:(l),,;(2),;(3)El,GDP;(4)Eviewss.1。1。ElGDP12。12,IEGDP,。ElGDP。、,El,GDP,:InGDP:=a+nIE,+1、12,ElGDP,,。ADF(Aug-mentedDiekeyFullerTest)InEI、InGDP△InEI、△InGDP,2。11985~2005GDPE(I)))GGGGGGGDP()))E(I)))GDP()))1119855548。55590166648.5559016661119866673.99910275.22268.1119471.5551119877791.99912058.66676669969.1111119888899.99915042.88874.22211172.55511198999102.55516992.33373.11112110.66611199000109.11118677.888115.7771980111111991111700021781.555179.77723024.44411199222206.11126923.555211.77727657。333111993332699935333.999256.33333670.44411199444307.33348197.999270.77742449.999111995553555560793.777331.44456744.222111996664088871176.666411.88871833.88811199777502.22278973335344483966.444111998887233384402.333796.66692995.77711199999820.11189677.111909.11199408.888222000001060.22299214.6661154.222108009.555222001111106.777109655.2221201.22211902000222002221367.222120332.7771506.444132584.333222003331627.777135822.88817588814669444222004441909.888159878.3332009.111168187.77722200555238888183084.8882563.999196573.444:1985。1:El。2008.2122ECONOMICMANAGEMENT15922DPG:DPG。ADFInEIInDPG△InEI△InDGP*(e,t,k)(0,t,0)(0,t,0)(0,t,3)(0,t,0)ADF2.4420340.9707835.8545113.5623363.6584463.6584463.7332003.2773642.1.-1-2.-3:5%;*5%,ihEI、InGD,,△InEI△InGD,。InEI、InGD,I(l)。InEI、InGDP,。1、。,,EngleGarnger,InEI,1GD,,。OLSE:InGDP:=5.881766277+0.822334451XInIE:s(b)=(0.175918)(0.029278)t(b)=(33.43463)(28.08747)RZ=0.976482,5.E.ofregression=0.166516,F=788.9058,D.W=0.529328,10%。InGDnIEI,TF。RESID013。.4〕-l888850929496980002043RESI13,,,,ADF。,,AIC(AkaikeInformationCri-terion)SC(Shwar:Criterion)p1。ADF3。1602008.21223ADFADF2.19318115%01%2.6289351.9601711.607051P0.03063,ADF5%。,5%。,nIEInIGD。,GDPEl△InGDP`=0.006852ECM1(0.040483)(1.,ECM。。,ECM△ihGDP:,GDPElGDP。,GDEl。El,。3、(ECM),y,△y:,ECM:y:x,。ElGD,:0.284289△InIE:+0.097753411764)(2.158907),1%,0.284%。4、InEI、InGDP。AIC(AkaikeInformationCriterion)SC(ShwarzCriterion)5。InEI、nIGDP,4。4:5PInEIihGDnIGDihEIF7.508142.814560.022560.14031:5%4:,ElGDP,GDPEl。、1、,GDPEl,,。,,1%,GDP0.284%。:(l),。,,,,;(2)。,,;(3),。、、,,,;(4)。,,,。2、,GDPEl,GDPEl20082122ECONOMICMANAGEMENT161,GDP,。。(l),,、。,,、3,,。(2),。,。,。、,。,“”。3、,,,。4、(l),,“,”,。(2),,“,”。(3),。,。(4)。,,,,,,,。(5)GDP。GDPGDP,。GDP,,,GDP,。:【l〕.“”[S」.2005.〔2〕.〔D〕.:,2006.〔3」.t:Eviews〔M」.:,2。。.6〔4」,.[J〕.:,2004,(6).〔5」.【D〕.,2003.〔6].[J〕.:,2003,(1).AStudyonIntearetionbetweenChina’5EPIaGorwthofEconomyWANGJunhong,YANGWeniie(SehoolofEeonomy,OeeanUniversityofChina,Qingdao,Shandong,266071,China)。,tarcl:intnlsartlcletnetotalam0Unt01nlnasrlanQtnecorresP0noingyears’UrLbUI’15se-leetedasavariableofnationaleeonomy)froml985to2005areseleetedandeointegration15usedtoexaminewhetherthere15alongtermandstableequilibriumbetweenEPIandGDP.ECM15usedtoobservetheimpaetsofthisequilibriumandtheshorttermfluctuationsofEPIonGDP’5ehanges,whileusingGrangertesttoeheektheeausalitybetweenEPIandeeonomiedevelopment.Throughindepthanalysis,aseriesofeonelusionsandtheeorrespondingproposalsareputforward.Thus,thefoundationforfollowupstud-yoninvestmentandfinaneingsystemreforminenvironmentalproteetion15laidandthetheoretiealsupport15providedforGovernment’5deeisionmakings.KeyWodrs:EPI;GDP;grangertest;ECM(:)1622008.2122