输电网规划建模与决策分析研究

华中科技大学博士学位论文输电网规划建模与决策分析研究姓名：余秋霞申请学位级别：博士专业：电力系统及其自动化指导教师：郭剑波20080920I——II:IIIABSTRACTWiththedevelopmentofelectricutilityreformation,electricpowerutilitiesarecarryingoutrevolutiononpricebiddingandseparationoftransmissionandgenerationinChina.Transmissionplanningisencounteredwithbrand-newexternalenvironment.Traditionaltransmissionplanningmethodsandmodelscannotmeetdemandofthederegulatedelectricitymarket.Generationplanninguncertaintyandincreasedloaduncertainty,andreasonabledecision-makingmethodarethetwodifficultproblemstobesolvedintransmissionplanninginaderegulatedelectricitymarket.Inordertoscientificallyplanthetransmissionnetworkandmeettheincreasingloaddemand,thesuitabletransmissionplanningmodelandmethodareurgentlyrequired,andtransmissionplanningschemeisnecessaryforscientificdecision.Therefore,thisdissertationchoosestransmissionplanningmodelingandtransmissionplanningschemedecision-makingunderderegulatedelectricpowersystemasthemainresearchcontents.Thisdissertationestablishesanuncertaintransmissionplanningmodeltocovertheuncertainfactorsofelectricitymarketontransmissionplanning.Thismodeldescribestheuncertaintyofloadandgenerationinjectionbyfuzzynumber,solvesthesuperiorityplanningschemesetbasedonmembership,andbringsforwardthedecision-makingmethodofuncertaintransmissionplanningbasedonexpansionfeasibleoftransmissionlineunit.Itcanmeetthedemandofgenerationandloadasmuchaspossible.Thisdissertationdescribesallsegmentsoftransmissionplanningonmathematic,andthenyieldstheprocessofmakingdecision.Thedecision-makingprocesscanbedividedintotwokernelstepsaccordingtotwo-steptransmissionplanningmethod:formsuperiorityplanningschemesetanddecision-making.Thisdissertationestablishesthemodelonformingsuperiorityplanningschemesetfortwo-steptransmissionplanningmethod.Itnormalizesandmodelsthetransmissionplanningdecision-making,andprovidesthefoundationofscientificdecision-making.Thisdissertationquantitativelyevaluatetheadaptabilityoftransmissionnetworkplanningschemetogenerationexpansionplanningandloadincreasingbasedonthebranch-noderealpowersensitivity.Thebranch-noderealpowersensitivitycanguidenewlyadditionalgenerationandloadtoconnectwithtransmissionnetwork.Sincetransmissionplanningisamulti-attributedecisionproblemunderderegulatedelectricpowersystem,thisdissertationbringsforwardtechnicalandeconomicalintegrationIVevaluationfortransmissionplanning,andestablishesasetofindexesforintegrationevaluate.Theintegrationevaluatemethodascertainstheweightofveryindexbasedonthemaximalindexesdifferentiaofeveryplanningscheme.Itcanroundlyevaluatethetransmissionplanningscheme.WiththepracticalsituationofloadsustainedgrowthandconstructioncostswiftgrowthinChina,thisdissertationputsforwardthemodifiedmulti-stagetransmissionplanningconsideringtherapidgrowingloadlevelandincreasingconstructioncost,therapidgrowingloadlevelwillaheadconsiderintransmissionplanning.Thismodifiedmulti-stagetransmissionplanningmodelincreasestheadaptabilitytoloadandreducestheriskinconstructioninvestment,andreflectsthenewlyconnotationofproperleadingdevelopmentplanningontransmissionnetworkunderderegulatedelectricpowersystem.Intheaspectofmodelsolving,thisdissertationmodifiesthebasicparticleswarmoptimizationalgorithmbychaosergodicityandvaccinationimmunemechanism.Thisdissertationputforwardthechaoticimmune-vaccineparticleswarmoptimization,andappliesittosolvetransmissionplanningmodel.Itcanavoidgettingintolocaloptimum,speeduptheconvergencerate,andimprovetheaccuracyofconvergence.Casesystemsshowthatthesepresentedmodelsanddecision-makingmethodsofthisdissertationarefeasibleandeffective.Keywords:ElectricityMarket;TransmissionPlanning;UncertaintyTwo-stepPlanningMethod;AdaptabilityEvaluation;MakeDecisionChaoticImmune-vaccineParticleSwarmOptimization;ModifiedMulti-stageTransmissionPlanning;TechnicalandEconomicalIntegrationEvaluation□□√111.11.1.1[1][2]PlanProgramPlanProgram[3][4][5][6]2[7](1)(2)()()(3)3(4)1.1.2[8][9][10]-[16][15]-[17]15305155[16][18]4[19]1.1.3[20]-[22][23]20801980200235([2002]5)[24]2002524[25][26]2002(CIGRE)37[27]()51.1.4[28]()evaluationassessment[29]——()[30]6[31]20036(NationalWindCoordinatingCollaborativeNWCC)311[32]1.2————()7decomposition1.11.1Fig.1.1Evolutionoftransmissionplanningmethod1.2.1Burstall[33]19661970Garver[34]Katenbach[35]Puntel[36]1973DusouchetE1-Abiad[37]81974StephenHicks[38]0–l——Mamandur[39]1978KKDechanps[40]19791982Bennon[41]Meliopoulos[42]1985Sharifnia[43]Pereira[44]Benders(Bendersdecomposition)Benders1993ShinPark[45]1994RomeroMonticelli[46](hierarchicaldecomposition)1995SiddiqiBaughman[47]Benders1996Romero[48]9HughRudnick[49]1997WenFushuanC.S.Chang[50](tabusearch)JavierContreras[51]2001Binato[52](GreedyRandomizedAdaptiveSearchProcedureGRASP)2001[53](AntColonyOptimizationACO)2002P.S.Sensarm[54](ParticleSwarmOptimizationPSO)2003R.S.ChandaP.K.Bhattacherjee[55]2004[56]2006[57]1.2.2(1)(IndependentSystemOperatorISO)10()(2)()(TransmissionCongestionContractTCC)(3)()()11()(4)1.2.3(1)[58][59]12(2)[60]-[64](3)[65](4)[66]-[70]131.2.4(1)(2)(3)(1)[71]1982ArunP.Sanghvi[72][73]-[83][84][85]14[