您好,欢迎访问三七文档
[Table_MainInfo]保险/金融股票研究公司深度研究[Table_Title]新业务价值超预期,成长能力获提升——2009年年报点评彭玉龙董乐021-38676683021-38676650pengyulong@gtjas.comdongle@gtjas.comS0880209040414S0880108063472本报告导读:太保09年投资收益率和新业务价值增长超预期,目标价提升1元至35元,维持增持评级。投资要点:[Table_Summary]归属于母公司净利润73.56亿,同比增长187%,每股收益0.95元,全面摊薄后每股收益0.87元,与我们预期一致。新会计准则对公司净资产(2009年初)的影响为-1亿元,利差损保单补提的准备金与其他保单减少的准备金基本抵消;新准则对09年净利润的影响为19.22亿元,相当于旧准则下净利润54.34亿元的35%。但是,公司没有披露评估准备金所采用的折现率,因而无法与平安、国寿的准备金政策进行比较。总投资收益率达到6.3%,高于国寿的5.8%,接近平安的6.4%;投资配置更具进攻性,权益投资比例下半年提升3个百分点至12%,基础设施投资比例最高,达到5%,太保投资能力的提升值得期待。虽然公司预计保险业务收入今年增长15%左右,但在在H股成功发行,资本充足、竞争对手紧追的背景下,我们判断太保10年将重启银保,保费增速将加快,1季度保费已经增长56%,全年实际增速很可能大幅超过公司自己的预计数。若投资环境不恶化,我们认为银保重启也不是坏事,可以带来适当的增量价值,若投资环境改善,则更好了。在内涵价值评估中,太保采用了较为谨慎的假设,折现率为11.5%,而国寿和平安为11%,投资收益率最高为5.2%,国寿和平安为5.5%。一年新业务价值增长37%,每股新业务价值0.58元,好于我们预期的0.55元,我们由此将今年的新业务价值提升0.04元,按26倍新业务价值倍数,提升太保目标价1元,从34元提高至35元,增持评级。[Table_Finance]财务摘要(百万元)2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E净利润1,0086,8931,3397,3568,746(+/-)%-10.9%583.8%-80.6%449.4%18.9%总资产203,091309,010319,390397,187491,394(+/-)%25.9%52.2%3.4%24.4%23.7%净资产11,15362,80748,74174,65187,906(+/-)%68.8%463.1%-22.4%53.2%17.8%[Table_Profit]关键估值指标2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E每股内涵价值4.189.719.0911.4413.85每股收益0.510.390.470.580.75每股净资产0.230.900.170.871.02P/EV2.598.166.338.8010.36市盈率6.622.863.052.422.00市净率33.6541.7031.0924.7915.86[Table_Invest]评级:增持上次评级:增持目标价格:35.00上次预测:34.00当前价格:27.722010.04.19[Table_Market]交易数据52周内股价区间(元)16.12-29.73总市值(百万元)238,392总股本/流通A股(百万股)8,600/2,577流通B股/H股(百万股)0/2,313流通股比例57%日均成交量(百万股)25日均成交值(百万元)631[Table_Balance][Table_PicQuote]52周内股价走势图-12%2%16%30%44%58%2009/42009/72009/102010/1中国太保上证综指[Table_Trend]升幅(%)1M3M12M绝对升幅15%14%53%相对指数10%16%28%[Table_Report]相关报告《中国太保:保险中的成长股》2010.03.01《2009年业绩预告点评》2010.01.31《新会计准则暂不会影响整体估值体系》2010.01.27《太保H上市首日点评》2009.12.23《太保H股发行有助于降低A股估值水平》2009.12.11中国太保(601601)[Table_OtherInfo][Table_Industry]模型更新时间:2010.04.19股票研究金融保险[Table_Stock]中国太保(601601)[Table_Target]评级:增持上次评级:增持目标价格:35.00上次预测:34.00当前价格:27.72[Table_Website][Table_PicTrend]绝对价格回报(%)0%11%21%32%43%53%1m3m12m[Table_Range]52周价格范围16.12-29.73市值(百万)238,392[Table_Forcast]财务预测(单位:百万元)损益表2004A2005A2006A2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E2012E营业收入43,94451,92457,52693,00897,835104,313145,057168,915196,115已赚保费40,78845,58047,96465,53684,27484,127122,287142,680166,385投资收益3,0906,2659,51627,24413,26619,52922,11225,57829,073营业支出45,54350,41555,52284,51298,58494,772133,066154,125177,630提取保险责任准备金21,25522,41225,07041,35437,13938,14251,36163,49372,377赔付支出11,86612,58915,34020,23432,74130,49438,39844,80252,245业务及管理费5,6306,5708,22510,05511,43013,23714,37616,77419,560营业利润-1,5991,5092,0048,496-7499,54111,99114,79018,485利润总额-1,5841,4722,0268,443-3559,50611,95614,75518,450所得税479-565-719-1,3741,770-2,0332,9893,6894,613净利润-1,1061,1311,0086,8931,3397,3568,74610,79313,496资产负债表货币资金3,2098,05510,14223,62217,51330,12321,75825,33729,417交易性金融资产1,1284,8694,7572,4631,166333000买入反售金融资产2,8001,4161,7445,5002,2702,227000可供出售金融资产28,47944,29868,416121,78396,064118,475000持有至到期投资15,66929,53336,87958,12070,980104,618412,742467,626531,518资产合计121,563161,343203,091309,010319,390397,187491,394554,460627,815卖出回购金融资产1,7939,5223,12011,7887,0209,800000准备金9,5499,98612,17414,07515,94615,86367,224130,716203,094负债合计118,904154,009189,825245,689270,162321,514403,488450,652504,705股东权益2,5976,60611,15362,80748,74174,65187,906103,808123,110投资结构债券投资48%44%57%50%50%50%50%定期存款31%21%29%24%25%25%25%股权投资6%12%2%7%6%6%6%基金投资9%11%3%5%5%5%5%基础设施与非上市股权投资0%2%2%5%5%5%5%物业投资0%1%1%1%1%1%1%其他4%1%1%1%3%3%3%财务指标成长性1年新业务价值增速38.6%21.1%36.9%28.8%22.9%20.5%保险业务收入增长率5.2%36.6%28.6%-0.2%45.4%16.7%16.6%寿险保费增长率4.5%34.0%30.4%-6.2%53.0%18.9%16.7%产险保费增长率25.5%29.3%19.0%23.0%31.7%12.0%16.4%投资收益增长率51.9%186.3%-51.3%-47.2%13.2%15.7%13.7%营业利润增长率32.8%324.0%-108.8%-1373.8%25.7%23.3%25.0%净利润增长率-10.9%583.8%-80.6%449.4%18.9%23.4%25.0%总投资增长率27.0%65.2%0.5%27.1%12.8%13.3%13.7%盈利及费用指标总资产收益率0.6%2.3%0.4%1.9%1.8%2.0%2.2%净资产收益率(ROE)9.0%11.0%2.7%9.9%9.9%10.4%11.0%投资收益率6.2%11.8%2.9%6.0%5.7%5.8%5.8%退保率4%5%4%2%10%17%12%综合赔付率60%60%66%61%61%61%61%综合成本率103%103%106%98%98%98%98%内涵价值估值(单位:百万元)调整后净资产11,28760,74051,87672,36885,217100,633119,345调整后寿险业务净资产7,34517,02824,35224,15038,57345,55154,021有效业务价值6,70614,01518,10326,00333,87143,54455,204内涵价值(EV)17,99374,75569,97898,371119,089144,177174,549寿险内涵价值14,05130,57042,76950,60572,44489,095109,2251年新业务价值2,1763,0153,6515,0006,4387,9149,539调整每股后净资产2.627.896.748.419.9111.7013.88调整后每股寿险业务净资产1.712.213.162.814.495.306.28每股有效业务价值1.561.822.353.023.945.066.42每股内涵价值4.189.719.0911.6014.0417.0020.58寿险业务每股内涵价值3.273.975.555.888.4210.3612.70每股新业务价值0.510.390.470.580.750.921.11新业务价值倍数26每股评估价35股票绝对涨幅和相对涨幅-12%2%16%30%44%58%2009/42009/72009/102010/1-11%-3%6%15%24%32%中国太保价格涨幅中国太保相对指数涨幅投资回报率-1374%-1034%-695%-355%-16%324%615.333406-51%-4%44%91%139%186%ROE(%)ROA(%)保费增速0%0%0%1%1%1%6150.33346保险业务收入增长率(%)投资收益率-81%52%185%318%451%584%6150.33346投资收益率(%)1.业绩及新会计准则的影响与预期一致归属于母公司净利润73.56亿,同比增长187%,每股收益0.95元,全面摊薄后每股收益0.87元,与我们预期一致。净资产746.51亿元,包括H股发行募集的220多亿资本金,净资产因此大幅增长53.5%,每股净资产8.8元。公司采取稳定的红利政策,每年分红0.30元。新会计准则对公司净资产(2009年初)的影响为-1亿元,意味着利差损保单补提的准备金与其他保单减少的准备金基本抵消,与我们预期一致,从10年开始,新准则下的准备
本文标题:新业务价值超预期
链接地址:https://www.777doc.com/doc-625741 .html