电力弹性系数与电力工业优先发展

(,,210024),,,11..,,,1111E,GGNP,E/EG/GGNP,mn,m=EEGGn=E/GAB(1)e=EE,g=GG,ott,mnm=eg=tEt-EoEog=tGo(1+g)tntGono-1g(2)ntno=(1+g(m-1)1+g)t(3)(t-1),ntnt-1=1+g(m-1)1+g.(4)(2)(4):a.m1,ntnt-1(n0),;,,m1;b.m=1,nt=nt-1(no),,;c.m1,ntnt-1(no),,,ntnt-1(no),m1.15119973InternationalJournalHYDROELECTRICENERGYVol.15No.1Mar.199719951024.©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,1.:a1.,,,,19801992,,1980(3181%)1992(912%).,,.,,.,.b1.,.1980199250%,25%.,,.,,,..c1.,,.,.,,.112,.11954199419543.3719620.7119701.0019781.2119861.2319551.8519630.6519712.7719791.4119871.0419562.4819640.8719723.4919801.0319880.8519573.6119651.2219731.1419810.6119890.9719581.9319661.3019741.0919820.7319901.2219596.5619670.8619751.9319830.7319911.211960/19681.151976/19840.5419920.8819610.6519691.6219771.2819850.6719930.801953-19802.401981-19850.651986-19941.1219940.85:,1992.1,,1.1:a..,15141997:©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,1981322kWh,1982457kWh,1983690kWh,,;b..,,,.,.,,1.,,,GDP,1.2()/19601965/11101966-1970/1.121971-1973/1.111971-1975/1.141993-1995/1.501995-2000/1.402000-2005/1.101993-1998/1.411998-2005/1.401993-2005/1.411993-1997/2.501988/1.401989/1.551990/1.441991/1.42:.2,1,,,1.,,1..219491991,78%,16%,4%,2%.,,.:a.,70%.,;b..1990,6812%,16%416%;c..1990896t,40%,(3).1985,1GDP1618t,2,5,.,,,.24151©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.3GDP198122.278.344.025.955.594.609.47198518.607.453.485.454.974.209.98198816.807.293.285.104.463.6210.98:.,,,GDP(4),19781519t/19909196t/,GDP.4(/)(/)197815.90/198611.090.67197915.300.30198710.690.65198014.480.33198810.360.67198113.69-0.31198910.371.26198213.200.5019909.960.20198312.700.621991/0.11198411.860.501992/0.14198511.370.63:(1991).1,,1984.198119928%,3(1).1992646kWh/,1980112%,198019185%199124195%.341997:©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:a.,,19802016%1410%19902417%1917%.2000,40%,2010,.,,,;b.,,198019921711%;,1111%;713%;613%,.:5915%,2415%,1118%,412%.,;c..,,.,,;,.,.,,1973,1;,,1.,,1.,,,.,.32a..,;b.,,.,44151©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.;c....2,,,19802016%19912515%,1980519%1991716%;198030615kWh1991585kWh.(5),,,,,.5(%)19601970198019851988/34.338.944.248.313.314.416.220.922.213.413.417.720.320.5/12.016.817.919.68.29.613.715.317.311.111.914.614.916.8/10.412.615.016.4/10.112.814.116.44.,,.,.,.,.,,,,,,1,,,.541997:©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.REVIEWOFTAKINGPRECEDENCETOTHEDEVELOPMENTOFTHEPOWERINDUSTRYGaoHongHuWeisongTanWeixiongWangYajin(HehaiUniversity,Nanjin,210024)AbstractInthispaper,therelationbetweenpowerconsumptioncoeffi2cientofelasticityandpowerconsumptionperunitoutputvaluearestud2ied.Thetendencytowardspowercoefficientelasticity,thefeatureofen2ergyconsumption,theinfluenceofmodernizationandelectrificationonpowerconsumptionandwhypowerconsumptionincreasehigh2speedinourconuntryareanalysedanddiscussed.Theconclusionsarereachedasfollows:inthefuture,powerconsumptionwillincreasespeedily,thepowerconsumptionperunitoutputvaluewillrise,theenergyconump2tionperunitoutputvaluewillcomedown,thus,inourconuntry,powerindustrymustbegivenpriorltytothedevelopment.Keywordspowercoefficientofelasticity,gorwthofpwoerconumption,takingprecedencetothedevelopment64151©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.