产业结构变迁促进区域经济增长的实证研究――以宁波为例

宁波大学硕士学位论文产业结构变迁促进区域经济增长的实证研究——以宁波为例姓名：陈晓庆申请学位级别：硕士专业：区域经济学指导教师：陈依元2006010519952004199520046070AnEmpiricalResearchontheChangeofIndustrialStructurePromotesRegionalEconomicGrowthforNingboCityAbstractTherelationshipbetweenindustrialstructureandeconomicgrowthisextremelyclose.Industrialstructureisafoundationoftheeconomicgrowth,isoneofthebasicfactorswhichpromotestheeconomicgrowth,Economicgrowthwillleadtothecorrespondingchangeontheindustrialstructure.Themoderneconomicgrowthisaprocessinwhicheconomygrowwiththechangeofindustrialstructuretopromoteandcontactmutuallyanddevelopcontinuously.ThispaperanalysestherelationshipbetweentheeconomicgrowthandthechangeoftheindustrialstructureinNingbocityintheprocessoftheeconomicgrowth.Thefullpaperdividesintofivechaptersaltogether:Chapteronechieflyintroducestherelevantresearchonindustrialstructuretheory,includingindustrialclassification,industrialstructureevolution,therelationshipbetweenindustrialstructureandeconomicdevelopment,andtakesareviewonthemethodsandframeworkshomeandabroad.Chaptertwomainlyappliesindustrialstructuretheory,usestheindexesstructuredeparturedegreeandcomparativelaborproductivitytostudythechangeoftheindustrialstructureinNingbocitybetween1995and2004,andthenanalysesthedynamicreasonsforthosechanges.ChapterthreeusestheindexesstructurechangevalueandstructuresimilitudecoefficienttocomparetheindustrialstructureofNingbocitytotheindustrialstructureofJapanandotherdifferentincomedistrictsfromtwoaspectsofoutputstructureandworkforcestructure.AndcometotheconclusionthatthestatusoftheindustrialstructureofNingbocityissimilartothestatusoftheindustrialstructureofJapanbetween1960sand1970sasit’sstatusoftheoutputstructureissimilartothestatusoftheoutputstructureinlowincomedistrictandit’sstatusoftheworkforcestructureissimilartotheworkforcestructureofupper-middlehighincomedistricts.Chapterfour,analysestherealexamplebetweenthechangeoftheindustrialstructureandtheregionaleconomicgrowthofNingbocity.Firstofall,analysesthedevelopmentstatusofindustrialstructureinNingbocitybygrayincidenceanalysis.Secondly,analysestheinnerstructureoftheprimaryindustry,thesecondaryindustryandthetertiaryindustryseparately,andcometotheconclusionthattherelativitybetweenthesecondaryindustryandtheeconomicgrowthismaximal,andtheinnermaximalrelativityineachindustryisagriculture,industryandthewholesaleandretailindustry.Atlast,analysestheeconomicgrowthindifferentsections,calculatesthecontributionanddriveforceofeachindustrytotheeconomicgrowth.ChapterfivereferstotheadjustmentandoptimizationemphasisofindustrialstructureinNingbocity.KeyWordsindustrystructure,regionaleconomicgrowth,Ningbocity,empiricalresearch_________________________________________________________-1-1011995200410-2-219952004103-3-11.11.1.11.1.2:1.1.318-4-601.1.3.1::.:.::v+m=c(c+v+m)=cc(c+v+m)=(v+m)+(v+m):cvm/x(v+c+m/x)=(c+c)-5-111.1.3.2;:301.1.3.3(primaryindustry)(secondaryindustry)(tertiaryindustry)50;:(Fisher)1935-6-1.11.11940(C.Clark)1.21.2:-7-24(OECD)1.31.3OECD();:1.41.4:-8-();-9-1.21.2.11.51.5-19191929-10-2060-11-:-12-1.2.2208080-13--14-2199520042.1199520042.1.12.1-15-2.1GDP%GDP199512.8058.3028.9020.5199611.7056.6031.7017.219979.5057.0033.5013.719989.1055.8035.1011.119998.9055.9035.2011.020008.2056.0035.8012.020017.6054.8037.6012.120027.0455.2537.7113.220036.2856.0337.6915.620045.7257.0137.2715.5GDP199512.858.328.920045.757.037.3“”“”GDP199512.80%20045.72%7.08%0.7200154.8%199558.30%4%199528.90%200237.71%200437.27%1071000200040%5000800050%—60%80001700055%—70%2004500037.27%40%-16-“”“”“”2.1.2()102.22.2%199532.3746.3421.29199632.4245.8721.72199732.5044.1723.33199831.8642.4925.65199931.3743.1925.44200030.2842.1627.56200125.5747.6126.82200224.6951.4423.87200322.5750.8326.60200420.0850.9229.00199532.37%200420.08%12.29199546.34%200042.16%200450.92%199521.29%200429.00%7.71-17-12.29%7.71%155%192141%1910219952004200251.44%2004563.1%31199553220053063074150%35%32005-18-602.1.331iiiPYX==−∑2-1PiYiiXGDP19952004GDP2.319952004199539.14%199746.00%200428.72%199519.57%200414.36%199511.96%20046.09%19957.61%200213.84%20048.27%2.319952005%199519.5711.967.6139.14199620.7210.733.0834.53199723.0012.8310.1746.00199822.7613.319.4545.52-19-199922.4712.719.7644.94200022.0813.848.2444.16200117.977.1910.7835.94200217.653.8113.8435.30200316.295.2011.0932.58200414.366.098.2728.72200420.08%5.72%199520002001200412GDP109.23109.7719.67120041272199557-20-19952004592.1.41//iiiGGRLL=2-2iRiGiGiLiLi19952004GDP2.41-21-2.4/19950.3951.2581.3570.30219960.3611.2341.4590.26819970.2921.2901.4360.21419980.2861.3131.3680.21319990.2841.2941.3840.21220000.2711.3281.2990.20620010.2971.1511.4020.23320020.2851.0741.5800.21520030.2781.1021.4170.22120040.2851.1201.2850.2372.4199520041119950.39520040.28519981.31320041.120-22-12.29%7.71%19950.30220000.206GDP2.2199520042.2.150-23-2.2.2199548.45%200436.99%11.5-24-2.51995199820002002200448.45%41.64%39.80%38.70%36.99%2.6199519982000200220046.011.013.517.014.50.51.53.7588.591.593.595.093.599.0100.5103.5101.0100.2595.5124.0150.0161.5172.012.024.042.561.7518.044.068.0101.0126.