巢湖蓝藻爆发多要素预测模型研究方凤满

2010－01－102010－04－08KJ2009A137、AHSKF07－08D357。1974－。[e-mail]12311．2410032．2410033．2410002000～200712、。、pH、3B=8P3+27Q2。B0＜0。。X171．5A1000－0690201005－0760－061～3。、、、、4～6。、78－a、910。、11～1314、。。。1。760km2“”8．4m2．5m。13350km2DEMhttp//srtm．csi．cgiar．org10228．3km21。1DEMFig．1LocationoftheChaohuLakeBasinandDistributionofWaterQualityMonitoringPoints305201010SCIENTIAGEOGRAPHICASINICAVol．30No．5Oct．2010DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2010.05.00822．1TNTP－aChlaCODMnpH。、、、15～176～97pH8～9．2。TP、CODMn、TN、Chla、pH、Temp、N/P、Radiation。2．2、2000～200712CODMn、TP、TN、ChlapH。Temp、Radiation695%。2．3、、18。。Vx、xPQ。。。2、471819。Vx=x4+Px2+Qx+C1xP、Q。xPQP＞0QxQP=Q=0xVx。P＜0MxP。22。PQxPQxx20。210Fig．2CurvedandcontrolsurfaceofCuspCatastrophemodel101VxMM=V'x=4x3+2Px+Q2SS=V'x=12x3+2P31～3xBB=8P3+27Q24B＞0MPQxVx。B=0MP≠0Q≠0P=Q=0。P=Q=0xVx。B＜03PQVxB。33．115。20038616752000～20075～8。。TP2000～2005SPSSTPy=－1．0133+1．8498t－0．9418t2+0．1951t3－0．014t4R2=0．8853TPVx=x4－5．5551x2－1．6875x－13．39915B=－1294．53＜02003。－aChlaB=－974．10＜0CODMn、TN、pH、Temp、Radiation。N/P2PQB=8P3+27Q22003B＜0。3．2。CODMnTemp、N/PpH、N/PRadiation3PQB＜0PQVx1。CODMnTemp、N/PpH、N/PRadiation3。12003Table1ThevalueofbifurcationsetsofcatastrophemodelintheChaohuLakebasinat2003QCODMnTNpHN/PTempRadiationPCODMn－18．610．2385．434－0．0030．424TN4．956－4．83410．03185．35．020PH0．37918．63－5．4540．0170．445N/P0．35217．89－0．474－0．715－0．288Temp0．37318．630．2515．447－0．4372Radiation0．35618．610．2345．4310．064－3．2。《》GB3838－2002《》ⅢCODMn、TP、TNpH《》TP、CODMn、TNⅢ0．2、6、1mg/LTP、CODMn、TNTPnew=TP/0．2CODMnnew=6－CODMn/6TNnew=TN－1/TN《》pH6～9pHpH=8pHnew=pH－8/pHKChlanew=Chla/KKChla。N/P1516N/P15N/Pnew=N/P－15/N/P。2000～20075～827℃162h/Tempnew=27－Temp/TempRadiationnew=Radiation－162/Radiation。1Chlanew=TP4new+CODMnnew×TP2new+Tempnew×TPnew62Chlanew=TP4new+NPnew×TP2new+PHnew×TPnew73Chlanew=TP4new+NPnew×TP2new+Radiationnew×TPnew83．32000～20023aChlanew－a26730K。6～8K2．5248、2．63932．6569。6～81Chlanew=TP4new+CODMnnew×TP2new+Tempnew×TPnew+2．192092Chlanew=TP4new+NPnew×TP2new+PHnew×TPnew+1．3926103Chlanew=TP4new+NPnew×TP2new+Radiayionnew×TPnew+1．544511ChlanewKChla2。3B200320032003±5%2003200715．01%。。3．4、Chla。2008。20088《》CODMn1～3Chla25．995、21．494、21．566mg/m310mg/m32008Chla20088Chla27．635mg/m3。2Table2CatastrophemodelsoftheChaohuLake’scyanobacteriaTPnewCODMnnewN/PnewPHnewTempnewRadiationnewChlanew123%123B12320001．908－0．0050．1100．169－0．019－0．01015．39915．37715．187－7．95－3．91－4．470．010．7840．01320011．810－0．097－0．2330．1390．029－0．07212．64911．60211．3744．710．40－0．920．0160．4170．03620021．981－0．037－0．1020．0870．0060．08617．45516．55916．7094．563．695．330．0010．1950．19120032．950－0．118－0．4490．096－0．019－0．12776．88873．54373．035－2．02－2．03－2．06－0．003－0．474－0．28820042．0620．048－0．4100．094－0．0080．08620．46217．92518．05960．7247．1849．280．003－0．311－0．35320051．5180．030－0．4590．0540．027－0．2147．6125．7255．471－14．90－33．10－35．640．02－0．6970．45620061．692－0．123－0．8290．127－0．0570．2489．9417．4337．788－15．64－34．06－30．440．072－4．116－2．89720071．5400．352－0．6980．126－0．032－0．0108．6015．5565．4985．01－29．09－29．360．376－2．292－2．71420081．6450．298－0．2920．133－0．0160．02410．2968．1448．1174。1PQCODMnTemp、N/PpH、N/PRadiationB=8P3+27Q2=0。B00。2CODMnTemp、N/PpH、N/PRadiation2～3。3675。3、。420075。1．J．2004236746～750．2BlencknerTMalmaeusJMPetterssonK．ClimaticchangeandtheriskoflakeeutrophicationJ．InternationalAssociationofTheoreticalandAppliedLimnology20062951837－1840．3SurnithaGFulekarMH．EnvironmentalimpactsofpollutionintheaquaticecosystemofcoastalregionsMumbaiJ．ResearchJournalOfBiotechnology20083446－51．4RukhovetsLAAstrakhantsevGPMenshutkin．DevelopmentofLakeLadogaecosystemmodelsmodelingofthephytoplanktonsuccessionintheeutrophicationprocessJ．EcologicalModel-ling2003165149－77．5ArhonditsisGBStowCA．EutrophicationriskassessmentusingBayesiancalibrationofprocess－basedmodelsApplicationtoamesotrophiclakeJ．EcologicalModelling20072082215－229．6PauerJJAnsteadA．TheLakeMichiganeutrophicationmodelLM3－EutromodelmevelopmentandcalibrationJ．WaterEn-vironmentResearch2008809853－861．7．J．200113163～71．8．J．200723374～77．9．aJ．200727192～97．10．J．2009214490～494．11．J．1998183263～267．12．J．2008284548～553．13．800J．2009296893～899．14．———J．2006263878～883．15．J．20082951313～1318．16．J．2008206687～694．17．2007J．2009294531～535．18．．M．1992．19．J．2007139～41．20．J．2002223375～379．46730CatastropheModelsofCyanobacteriainChaohuLakeFANGFeng-man12JINGao-jie3GAOChao11．CollegeofTerritorialResourcesandTourismAnhuiNormalUniversityWuhuAnhui2410032．AnhuiNaturalDisastersProcessandPrevention-controlProvincial-levelLaboratoryWuhuAnhui2410033．TheHighSchoolAffiliatedofAnhuiNormalUniversityWuhuAnhui241000AbstractTakingChaohuLakeasthestudyareapotassiumpermanganateindexCODMntotalnitrogenTNtotalphosphorusTPChlorophyll-aChlapHdatainthe12monitoringpointsofthelakeandthecorrespondingtemperatureradiationetc．from2000to2007fromChinaMeteorologicalAdministrationwerecollected．ThroughthemutationdiscriminationTPwasselectedasstatevariablesCODMnandtemperatureratioofnitrogentophosphorusN/PandpHN/Pandradiationweredecidedascontrolvariablethenthreewaterbloomcatastrophemodelswereconstructedby12lakemonitoringpointsdata．TheobtainedcrosssetequationisB=8P3+27Q2