XXXX年中国房地产评估报告_花旗银行_106页

ChinaProperty1ChinaProperty中国房地产TenaciousVitality;顽强的生命力PartialReratingStorytoContinue部分企业重新评估故事继续[e-mail]-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandnon-USresearchanalystdisclosures.CitiInvestmentResearch&AnalysisisadivisionofCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.(theFirm),whichdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ChinaProperty2Content1.ChinaProperty:StillGoodforInvestment?中国房地产：仍然适合投资吗？2.Strongearningsgrowthmomentumeveninpolicyheadwinds高压政策下仍呈强劲增长态势3.2010-12:APeriodforMarketLeaders2010-12：市场领导者的时代4.CitiViewonthePhysicalMarket花旗对于有形市场的看法5.InvestmentThesis投资要点6.Investmentrecommendations投资建议ChinaProperty3ChinaProperty:StillGoodforInvestment?中国房地产：仍然适合投资吗？ChinaProperty4ChinaProperty:StillGoodforInvestment?1)Strongpartialre-ratinguntil2012E部分企业重新评估会持续至2012年底Sectorwithnoiseandalotofpoliciesinterventionanduncertainties行业充斥着大量政策干预及不确定因素-3roundsoftighteningmeasuressince2010从2010年起三次政策紧缩-Manyinvestorshavebeenlosingpatienceduetopolicyrisk大量投资者由于政策风险而失去耐心Sector-widereratingin2011isunrealistic,policytighteningunlikelytoloosenin20112011年房地产政策仍然收紧，因此全行业范围内进行重新评级是不太现实的ButAPOWERFULANDPARTIALRERATINGhasbeenongoingsincelate2010但是从2010年底开始，一次强劲的部分重新评级持续至今-Leadingdeveloperswithstrongdifferentiatingqualitieshavebeenemergingaswinnersinthemarketdowntown开发商领头羊凭着产品质量的巨大差别而得以在这个市场的冬天生存下来-Thispartialreratingthatbeganinlate2010shouldcontinueuntil2012.这次重新评级开始于2010年底并将持续至2012年-Operatingdivergence(sales,profitability,financialposition)hasbeenacceleratingquicklyamongdevelopers发展商之间经营上的差异（销售，利润，财务状况）快速地加大ChinaProperty5ChinaProperty:StillGoodforInvestment?Partialreratingcouldbepowerful,showninsharepriceperformanceofbignamesinthepast1year:Source:Bloomberg;DataCentral;CIRAEstimates19-May-11MarketCap1-Week2-Week1-Month3-MonthYTD1-YearEvergrande3333.HK11,36311.8%12.0%14.6%53.4%55.8%210.0%Longfor0960.HK8,7266.3%13.3%5.4%25.3%21.6%80.0%SOHOChina0410.HK4,6113.9%7.0%2.5%20.8%19.6%76.3%AgileProperty3383.HK5,6644.8%4.6%-4.8%18.9%10.8%60.9%CountryGarden2007.HK6,8526.7%3.9%-4.2%2.2%7.0%58.7%KWGProperty1813.HK2,006-0.4%2.5%-5.4%-3.1%-9.0%37.9%BJCapitalLand2868.HK6860.4%-0.8%-12.0%4.0%1.2%28.9%CentralChina0832.HK5580.5%0.9%-3.1%-6.5%-6.1%28.4%PolyRealEstate600048.SS9,243-0.4%1.2%-8.3%1.3%3.5%24.8%NewWorldChina0917.HK2,038-1.1%1.9%-4.5%-11.0%-5.8%23.3%CCLand1224.HK9484.7%6.3%-4.0%1.1%9.9%22.6%SZI0604.HK1,1201.7%0.4%-2.8%-4.7%-9.2%18.8%Powerlong1238.HK1,2403.5%0.4%-2.5%-10.9%-6.7%18.5%GuangzhouR&F2777.HK4,3273.6%2.6%-8.3%-4.9%-6.1%18.0%Vanke000002.SZ13,9340.2%-1.1%-5.9%-1.1%0.5%16.3%ChinaAynPrprty3883.HK4401.6%0.0%-2.2%-6.4%-11.5%14.9%ShuiOnLand0272.HK2,292-1.2%-0.9%-3.9%-6.3%-8.6%11.4%FranshionProp0817.HK2,7694.4%4.4%-0.4%4.4%0.4%10.8%YuexiuProperty0123.HK1,9223.2%0.6%-2.4%-10.6%-22.6%10.0%ChinaOverseas0688.HK16,8398.7%9.9%3.0%22.9%11.4%8.8%Fantasia1777.HK784-0.8%0.0%-6.0%3.3%-6.0%8.7%MingfaGroupInt0846.HK1,988-0.4%-1.9%0.4%-3.4%2.4%8.5%GreentownChina3900.HK1,7633.9%4.5%1.2%-4.3%-2.8%5.7%GloriousProperty0845.HK2,3651.7%8.3%12.4%5.4%-11.6%4.9%SPGLand0337.HK441-1.2%0.3%-8.2%-16.0%-14.2%3.8%CRLand1109.HK9,8267.4%8.4%1.4%11.0%-0.1%0.3%BJNorthStar0588.HK806-1.6%-1.1%-3.1%-6.5%-11.8%0.0%ShimaoProperty0813.HK4,7934.8%0.0%-6.6%-3.7%-10.6%-1.3%SREGROUP1207.HK382-2.8%0.0%-2.8%-8.0%-11.5%-2.8%PolyHKInv0119.HK2,697-1.9%0.0%-13.9%-14.1%-23.6%-14.6%YanlordYNLG.SI2,165-0.7%-1.4%-9.8%-9.8%-17.9%-15.9%Hopson0754.HK1,6540.1%-0.1%-9.4%-17.5%-12.2%-16.4%Sino-OceanLand3377.HK3,1112.4%1.7%-7.5%-11.9%-15.7%-16.9%4.2%4.5%-1.2%9.4%6.3%36.6%MktCapWeightAverage重新评级具有很强的影响力，这体现在过去1年中各大型房地产商的股票价格表现恒大龙湖SOHO中国雅居乐碧桂园合景泰富北京首创建业地产保利地产新世界中渝深圳投资宝龙广州富力万科瑞安地产方兴地产越秀地产中海花样年明发绿城恒盛盛高置地华润北辰实业世茂上置保利香港仁恒合生创展远洋加权平均市值ChinaProperty6ChinaProperty:StillGoodforInvestment?Sharepriceperformancedivergentinthepast12months过去12个月股票价格表现差异Source:Bloomberg;DataCentral;CIRAEstimates0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11LeadingDevelopersOtherdevelopersLeadingDevelopersOtherDevelopers开发商领先者其他开发商2010年5月2011年5月ChinaProperty7ChinaProperty:StillGoodforInvestment?ChinaPropertySectoroutperformingBenchmarkIndex中国房地产业表现超出基准指数Itsperformancewasevenbetterthananyhotsectors它的表现甚至比其他热门行业都优秀BigSixdevelopers(COLI,Evergrande,CRLand,Longfor,CountryGardenandAgile)outperformedhotsectorssomuch,up67.2%inthepast12months六大开发商（中海、恒大、华润置地、龙湖集团、碧桂园、雅居乐）的表现大大超过其他热门行业，在过去12个月的升幅达到67.2%Thereisnosuchthingasdarkness,onlyafailuretosee.没有黑暗这种东西，只有看不见而已。Source:Bloomberg;DataCentral;CIRAEstimatesNote:ChinaPropertyLargeCapincluded6developers(COLI,Evergrande,CRLand,Longfor,CountryGardenandAgile)中国房地产大盘股包括六个开发商（中海，恒大，华润置地，龙湖，碧桂园和雅居乐）3-MonthYTD1-YearChinaPropertySector9.40%6.30%36.60%ChinaPropertyLargeCap24.30%19.00%67.20%HSCEI1.50%-1.50%16.30%MSCI-ChinaIndex4.10%2.10%13.70%MSCI-ChinaBankIndex4.10