瑞穗证券的月度报告(1)

FixedIncomeResearchDepartmentPleaserefertotheendofthisresearchreportforrelevantinformation.May2004CONTENTS1.FinancialMarketForecastsForecastsMay2004toSeptember20042.NearTermScenarioforJapaneseEconomyandInterestRates3.Introduction3.1Changeinthebiasshiftingfroma‘graceperiod’toa‘periodofpreparation’–MarkettrendsreflectingawarenessofJGBmanagementpolicy4.MacroEconomicAnalysis4.1JapaneseEconomy-PositiveandNegativeFactorsAffectingDemand5.MarketAnalysis5.1BondMarket6.EconomicForecastsforJapan7.MizuhoSecurities’WorldEconomicView8.ScheduleofEconomicEvents(MayandJune2004)ThisreportisbasedonareportpreparedinJapanesebyTheFixedIncomeResearchDepartmentofMizuhoSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.MizuhoSecuritiesMonthlyMonitorMay200421.FINANCIALMARKETFORECASTSFinancialMarketForecasts(May–Sep2004)May–Jun2004Jul–Sep2004Range1.30%-1.65%1.20%-1.65%Whileprofittakingisexpectedaheadoftheendofthequarterwhenthereisariseinthemarket,demandondipsshouldemergewhenthemarketfalls.Themarketshouldberangebound.Turmoilcouldarisefromthepressuresofdemandtobuybackthefutures.Theintensificationofexpectationsforafutureeconomicslowdownwillhaveanimpactonthebondmarkets.Therewillbeatendencytotakeprofitsaheadofthefinalinterimresultspriortotheterminationoftheblanketguaranteeondeposits(payoff).Closeattentionwillbenecessary.JGByields(10year)Range4.30%-4.90%4.10%-4.70%Therecoveryinemploymentandriseintherateofinflationleadtostrongexpectationsofanearlyratehikebutlongterminterestrateshavealreadyfactoredinsuccessiveratehikes.Thedebateabouttheemploymentsituationwillheatupaheadofthepresidentialelections.However,radicalreformswillbeunlikelygiventhedifficultyofincreasingthefiscaldeficit.ThewaningimpactfromtaxcutswillleadtoincreasedconcernabouttheUSeconomicoutlook.Interestrateswillcomeunderincreaseddownwardpressure.AcorrectionoftheweakUS$willcauseoverseasinvestorstobecomemoreactivetowardsUS$denominatedassets.USGovtBondYields(10year)Range10,000–12,0009,000–11,000GlobalstockpriceswillbeweigheddownbytheexpectationsofaratehikeintheUS.Deteriorationinthetermsoftradewillcauseawaningoftheexcessiveexpectationsforcorporateearnings.Therewillbeconcernsaboutaneconomicslowdownandthestockmarketwillweaken.Thenetbuyingbyforeigninvestorspromptedbyexpectationsofanearlyextricationfromdeflationwillease.ConcernsaboutaslowdownintheUSandChineseeconomieswillcauseincreasedconcernabouttheJapaneseeconomyandthesustainabilityofITrelateddemand.Thiswillcausefurtherweakeningoftheequitymarkets.WeexpectfurthercorrectionoftheexcessiveoptimismofforeigninvestorsinrelationtotheJapaneseeconomy.Geopoliticalriskswillcontinuetocontributetopsychologicalpressures.StockMarket(Nikkei225)May20043FinancialMarketForecasts(May–Sep2004)-Continued-May–Jun2004Jul–Sep2004Range109.00yen–116.00yen110.00yen–118.00yenAlthoughinterventionbytheJapaneseauthoritiesceasedfrommidMarch,theUS$hasbeenboughtonexpectationsofhigherUSinterestratesandtheflowoffundsintoJapanhasstopped.Themarketisrangebound.WeexpectashiftintheBushAdministration’sforeignexchangepolicyfromaweakUS$policytoastableUS$policy.FocuswillbeontheMaySummitofFinanceMinistersandJuneSummit.Thewaningofforeigninvestors’excessiveexpectationsinrelationtoJapanwillbeasellyenfactor.TheslowdownintheUSeconomywillcontributetoaweakerUS$,buttheBushAdministrationwillbeseekingastableUS$.OverseasinvestorswillcontinuetohavegooddemandforUS$assetsandthefocusonthetwindeficitswillgraduallywane.ForeignExchange(Yen/US$)Range130.00yen–139.00yen131.00yen–140.00yenExpectationsofaratecutbytheECBhavewaned,butthesluggishimprovementinsentimentinrelationtoEurozoneeconomieswillweighontheeuro.Theexcessiveexpectationsofforeigninvestors,includingthosefromEurope,abouttherecoveryintheJapaneseeconomywillease.OptimismabouttheJapaneseeconomywillwane,leadingtodemandtobuybacktheeuro.Japaneseinvestorswillrenewtheirinvestmentineurodenominatedbonds.Thisshouldbesupportiveoftheeuro.ForeignExchange(Yen/Euro)Japan
GDP(Jan-Mar)(May18)
BOJMeetingsMay19/20,Jun14/15,Jun25
BOJTankan(July)
OverviewofFiscalresultsforFY2003(July)
Upperhouseelection(July11)
GuidelineforFY2005budgetrequests(August)
GDP(Apr-Jun)(Aug13)
DeadlinefortheBOJtopurchasesharesheldbybanks(Sep30)
BOJMeetingsJul12/13,Aug9/10,Sep8/9MajorEventsOther
FinanceMinistersSummit(May22/23)
Summit(June8-10)
ScheduledtransfertoIraqprovisionalgovernment(June)
FOMCmeetingsMay4,Jun29/30
ECBPolicyBoardmeetingsMay6,Jun3
FRBChairman’sTestimony(Jul)
USDemocraticConvention(Jul26-29)
OlympicGamesinAthens(Aug13-29)
USRepublicanNationalConvention(Aug30-Sep2)
FOMCmeetingsAug10,Sep21
ECBPolicyBoardmeetingsJul1,Aug5,Sep2Note.TheaboveforecastsareasofApril30,2004May20044Acontractioninthedemandandsupplygapwillcontributetoanincreaseinprices.Clearincreaseinpricesandconcernsaboutinflation.2.NEARTERMSCENARIOFORJAPANESEECONOMY&INTERESTRATESBullishduetosharpincreaseincorporateearnings.StrengtheningofthenetbuyingbyJapaneseentitiesresultinginNikkei225Averageof15,000levels.EXPORTS+FIXEDBUSINESSINVESTMENT+PERSONALCONSUMPTION(1)ExportsincreaseThecoreisexportstoAsiancountriessuchasChinaIncreaseinglobaldemandforITre