港股房地产行业2019年投资策略防守反击机会大于风险

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-海外行业深度研究报告Overweight（Maintained）[e-mail]：[e-mail]:S0190518010002SFC:BMV912EconomyFluctuates,PoliciesStabilizeWithdownturnpressureoneconomy,monetarypolicywillmaintainprudent:Loosemoneytohedgeeconomydownturnandtightcredittopreventassetbubble.Fromde-leveragingtomaintain-leverage,therewouldbemorepoliciesintroducedtoboosteconomy,supportingprivatecompanies,likefeesandtaxreduction.ForChinaproperty,industryregulationwillinsiston“Houseisusedforlivingbutnotspeculation”,andthetargetisto“controlhouseprice”.Aftertwoyearsofadjustmentfortier-1andtier-2cities’housemarket,themoststrictpolicytendtoease,proppinguphousesales.MarketBacktoNormal,MarketSharesConcentratingIndustryregulationcontinues,de-stockingcomestoanend.Thehousemarketisbacktonormal.ThegrowthrateforhousesalesandGFAisfalling,thesellthroughratedecreasesto50%.Meanwhile,landmarketisalsocoolingdown,withhighunsold-rateandlowpremiumrate,mediumandsmallenterprisesaretendtowaitbutlargecompaniesaremoreactiveonacquiringland.Weforecastleadingcompaniestoachieveyearlyincreaseof10-20%oncontractsales,marketshareswillbemoreconcentrating.Thecertaintyforleadingcompaniesistheirsalesandearnings.DifficultFinancing,DiversifiedCostDuetorestrictiononpropertycompanyfinancinginChinaandinterestraterisinginUS,financialcostforChinapropertycompaniesdiversifies,with300-400bpsincreaseforthosemediumandsmallcompanies.Butleadingcompaniesshowgreatadvantageinmaintainingmuchlowerfinancialcost.RMBdepreciationwouldalsodeterioratetheirP/Lthroughexchangeloss.Asawhole,thefinancingwindowisstillopen,andsalesturnoverisstillsmooth.Counter-Attacking,OpportunityOutweighsRiskLookingaheadto2019,uncertaintystillexistsindomesticandinternationalenvironment,weshouldsticktothecertaintyofpropertyindustry.WemaintainOverweightonChinaProperty,bycounter-attacking,opportunitiesoutweighsriskin2019.Thebaseofdefenseisthehistoriclowvaluation,companies/shareholdersbuyback,andhighdividendyield.Thetimetoattackiswhentheregulationseaseintier-1andtier-2cities,leadingcompaniescanstillexpandtheirsizeandachievehigher-than-averagegrowthrate.Recommendations:1)Weprefertothoseleadingcompanieswithstrongfinancialsandfundamentals,lowgearing,highpayoutratio,ourtoppicksareChinaJinmao(817.HK),Longfor(960.HK),andCRLand(1109.HK),high-betanamesincludingCIFI(884.HK)andFutureLand(1030.HK);2)Withsteadydevelopment,heathycashflow,non-cyclical-effects,propertymanagementisalsoagoodchoice.Astheconcentrationofhousemarket,leadingpropertymanagementcompanieswouldalsoachieveahigherandsolidgrowth,ourtoppickisGreentownService(2869.HK),andwealsolikeCountryGardenServices(6098.HK)andCOPHL(2669.HK).Potentialrisks:lowermacroeconomygrowthrate,stricterregulations,tightliquidity,lowerthanexpectedcontractedsales,RMBdepreciation.Counter-Attacking,OpportunityOutweighsRisk11/25/2018请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-海外行业深度研究报告目录1、宏观环境的不确定性..........................................................................................-5-1.1、经济下行的压力...........................................................................................-5-1.2、国际冲突的挑战...........................................................................................-7-2、房地产行业的确定性..........................................................................................-9-2.1、行业调控的持续...........................................................................................-9-2.2、新房销售的降温.........................................................................................-10-2.3、市场份额的集中.........................................................................................-12-2.4、融资能力的分化.........................................................................................-13-2.5、存量市场的兴起.........................................................................................-16-3、港股地产投资策略............................................................................................-18-3.1、估值新低，等待情绪改善.........................................................................-18-3.2、防守反击，机会大于风险.........................................................................-20-4、风险提示............................................................................................................-22-图表图1、GDP当季增速................................................................................................-5-图2、月度CPI..........................................................................................................-5-图3、月度PPI..........................................................................................................-5-图4、存款准备金率.................................................................................................-6-图5、社会杠杆率.....................................................................................................-6-图6、美国十年期及一年期国债.............................................................................-8-图7、美元兑离岸人民币.........................................................................