摩根士丹利中国休闲与住宿业中国1000亿美元的旅游住宿市场观察201952050页

MMDisruptionDecoded–Leisure&LodgingandInternetLookingatChina'sUS$100bnTravelAccommodationMarketMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.HotelsfacemorecompetitionfromalternativelodgingproviderslikeTujiaaswellasservicedapartments.DisruptionseemsmorepronouncedforhotelsthanOTAs.OurleastpreferredstockisHTHT.May20,201910:12PMGMTMay20,201910:12PMGMTMMMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMI[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]&CO.LLCBrianNowak,[e-mail](SINGAPORE)PTE.+WilsonWNg,[e-mail]RITIESCO.,[e-mail]–Leisure&LodgingandInternetLookingatChina'sUS$100bnTravelAccommodationMarketOverview:WeestimatethattravelaccommodationinChinaisa~US$100bnmarket,withunbrandedhotelsmakingup78%ofgrosstransactionvalue.Brandedhotels(18%)andOTAs(29%)–notmutu-allyexclusive–havebeengrowingatmorethan25%p.a.(measuredbyGrossTransactionValue)forthelast5yearsattheexpenseofunbrandedhotels.Inthisreport,wefocusononlineaccommodationproviderslikeAirbnb/TujiaandhowtheyimpacthotelsandOTAsnegatively.Weestimatetheyaccountedfor4%ofthemarketin2018(orRmb24bn)andthatGTVwillgrowat~50%perannum.KeyconclusionsfromourAlphaWisesurveyof1,867Chinesetravelers:1.Brandedhotelsarevulnerable:Morethan80%oftravelersareawareofAirbnb/Tujia,and36%oftherespondentspreferthesetotraditionalhotelsinthenext12months.Wealsocon-cludedAirbnbandTujiaareexpectedtohithigher-endhotelswithexposuretotheleisuresegment.2.OTAsarelessimpacted:(a)OTAscontinuetoshowgrowthinlower-tiercitiesandexpansioninmidrange/low-endhotels.(b)SomeofthesealternativelodgingplatformsareusingOTAsasasaleschannel.3.Chinesetravelerspreferbookinglater,experiencestoprice:Chinesetravelersusetheseforauniqueexperienceandauthenticityratherthanprices.ThebookingwindowinChinaisveryshortwith76%ofravelersbookingtheirlodginglessthan1monthbeforetraveling.Stockideas:Inthehotelsector,wepreferGHGoverHTHT.Apartfromhighvaluation,andslowingRevPARgrowth,weseeriskofcom-petitionfromTujia/AirbnbandnewhotelbrandentrantsforHTHT.IntheOTAspace,wepreferTongcheng-Elong(TCEL)overCtrip(OW)duetocheapvaluationandexposuretolowertieredcities.Exhibit1:StockSummaryCompanyRatingPTinloc$UpsideTongcheng-ElongOW20.0+28%GreenTreeOW16.0+20%CtripOW43.0+17%HuazhuUW35.0+1%Source:Refinitiv,MorganStanleyResearch;Stockpricesasoftheclose,May17,2019.HotelsfacemorecompetitionfromalternativelodgingproviderslikeTujiaaswellasservicedapartments.DisruptionseemsmorepronouncedforhotelsthanOTAs.OurleastpreferredstockisHTHT.IndustryViewHongKong/ChinaLeisure&LodgingAttractiveChinaInternetandOtherServicesIn-LineM4MContents5StoryInCharts6InvestmentConclusion11SizingChina'sAccommodationMarket13DisruptiveforHotels16ImpactonOTAs–LimitedforNow19StockImplications22ChineseTravelers:BookLaterandLookforExperiences,NotPrice23LessonsfromSingapore24LessonsfromJapan25Airbnb:Introduction27Tujia:Introduction29CompanySnapshot–Huazhu30CompanySnapshot–GreenTree31CompanySnapshot–Tongcheng-Elong32CompanySnapshot–Ctrip.com33RiskReward:HuazhuGroup(HTHT.O,US$34.52,UW,PTUS$35.00)34RisksReward:GreenTreeHospitality(GHG.N,US$13.30,OW,PTUS$16.00)35Risk-Reward:Tongcheng-ElongHoldings(0780.HK,PTHK$20,OW)36Risk-Reward:Ctrip(CTRP.O,PTUS$43,OW)37FinancialSummary–HuazhuGroup38FinancialSummary–GreenTreeHospitality39FinancialSummary–Tongcheng-Elong40FinancialSummary–Ctrip.com42MoreonAlphaWiseMMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH5MExhibit2:AwarenessofalternativelodgingplatformsishigherthanforhotelbrandsinChina-201881%48%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%China-Tujia/AirbnbAvgoftop5knownhotelbrands*Source:AlphaWise,MorganStanleyResearch*HomeInns/7DaysInn/Shangri-La/Hilton/HanTingStoryInChartsExhibit3:44%ofpotentialusersofAirbnb/Tujiainthenext12Mwillcomefromhotelusers44%28%32%23%24%17%2%1%32%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%TraditionalhotelFriends/familyBed&BreakfastCorporateapartmentExtendedstayhotelOtherVacationRentalsWouldn'ttakenthistripifnotforthesiteOtherMayi,Xiaozhuorother'minsu'vacationrentalsitesAccommodat