汇丰银行全球消费者行业零售旅游和休闲从英国消费者论坛的剖析中得出的结论201821266页

Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.Issuerofreport:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:–ResearchIsyouraccessagreed?CONTACTustodayThisreporthighlightsconclusionsfromourForumandthereadthroughtostocks,includingTesco,easyJet,B&MandMerlinc100attendeeslistenedtodebates,discussionsandQ&AswithindustryexpertsandseniormanagementonkeyissuesTheimpactofAmazon,discounters,homeshopping,low-costairlines,otherdisruptorsandmorewereallfeaturedFoodRetail:Discussionincludedconsolidationprospects,discounters’potential(growingat5xtherateofgroceryonline),Amazon(theaudiencebelieveditsthreatisunderstated;thepaneldisagreed),whyGroceryHomeDeliveryisprofit-destructiveandwhyTesco-Booker(TSCOLN,199p,Buy,TP260p;BOKLN,219p,Buy,270p)isagooddealforTescoshareholdersandbadnewsforcompetitors.OneconclusionwasthattheaudiencedidnotbelieveTescowillhititsmarginaspiration,withover75%expectingafullyrecoveredTescomargintobebelow3.5%.ThisunderscorestheinvestmentopportunityastheTescorecoveryisunderway,ashighlightedbyNielsen.Non-FoodRetail:Disruptionfromonlineisamajorlong-termthreatbutboardsstruggletofaceuptothelong-termconsequences.Opportunitiesremain,however,particularlyformulti-channel,discountersandspecialists(B&M,BMELN,399p,Buy,TP470p;ABFoods,ABFLN,2,597p,Buy,TP3,700p).OliverWymanoutlinedsixstrategiesforretailerstofollowlong-term.Ouraudience’sviewwasthatAmazonisabiggerlong-termthreatthanthemarketrealises.Clothingremainsthecategorymostatriskfromonlineaccordingtotheaudienceandpanellists.Travel:Thetravelpanelwasoptimistic,pointingoutUKconsumersremainkeentospendontravelandprefertospendonexperiencesthanonmaterialassets.Notwithstandingpricesensitivityinthebookingprocess,consumersarereadytostartspendingthemomentatripstarts,offeringtheopportunityforupselling.Loyaltyhasarelevance,andBrexitisatechnicalissueforairlinesbutisnotimpactingdemandatthistime.WeakGBPdidencourageinboundtourismtotheUK.Geopoliticalandterroristincidentsimpactdemandbutthetimetakenfordemandtorecoverisshrinking(easyJet,EZJLN,1,608p,Buy,TP1,850p,Ryanair,RYAID,EUR15.85,Reduce,TPEUR14.0).Leisure:AkeyconclusionfromoursurveyandconferenceistherobustnessofLeisureandespeciallyholidayspendinto2018.ItisalsoclearyoungerpeoplearereallyprioritisingtravelandarekeentoexplorenewwaysofseeingtheworldsuchasCruise.WehighlightourBuyratingsonThomasCook(TCGLN,119p,TP140p)andCarnival(CCLLN,4,787p,TP5,500p/CCLUS,USD67.07,TPUSD78),whichwebelievearestructuralwinnersgiventheirmarketsharesandbrandstrength.Macro:Whileacknowledgingrisks,thepanellistsandaudienceweregenerallyoptimisticfor2018.Inflationarypressureswereseentohavepeaked.Employmentisakeyareaofuncertainty,withfearsofalabourshortageandtheimpactthiscouldhaveontheeconomy.HowevertheaudiencewaspessimisticontheoutlookforEnglandintheWorldCupthissummer.Guesswhotheythinkwillwin(onpenalties).12February2018DavidMcCarthy*HeadofConsumerRetail,[e-mail][phone]AndrewLobbenberg*[e-mail][phone]LenaThakkar*[e-mail][phone]PaulRossington*[e-mail][phone]AndrewPorteous*,CFAAnalyst,[e-mail][phone]EmmanuelleVigneron*AnalystHSBCBankplc,[e-mail][phone]AliNaqvi*[e-mail][phone]RuhellAmin*[e-mail][phone]*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsFutureConsumerEQUITIESMULTI-SECTORRetail,TravelandLeisure:ConclusionsfromAnatomyoftheUKConsumerForum,1February2018EQUITIES●MULTI-SECTOR12February20182Introduction3Nielsen4FoodvsLeisure9Travel14OliverWyman20Disruptors26AnatomyoftheUKconsumerpanelfeedback30Companyprofiles35Disclosureappendix62Disclaimer65Agenda:TheFutureConsumer-AnatomyoftheUKConsumerForum(1February2018,London)TimeEventSessionOne(08:30-10:30)Presentation“Shoppingdifferentlyforfood”–NielsenPanel1RetailvsLeisurePanel2TravelSessionTwo(10:45-13:00)PresentationFutureRetailingandConsumerGoods–OliverWymanPanel3DisruptorsPanel4AnatomyofaConsumerLunchSource:HSBCContents3EQUITIES●MULTI-SECTOR12February2018TheFutureConsumer:AnatomyofaConsumerFollowingthepublicationorourUK:AnatomyoftheConsumerreporton13December2017,andseveralspinoffreports(seebelowforlinks)wehostedadiscussionForuminLondonon1February.Almost100peoplewereinattendance,includinginvestors,speakersandanumberofcorporatesandindustryexpertsintheaudience.Intotalwehostedfourpaneldiscussionsandhadtwopresentations.Theorderofthedaywas:Presentation:ShoppingDifferentlyforFoodbyNielsenPanel1:FoodvsLeisurePanel2:TravelPresentation:RetailbutnotasweknowitbyOliverWymanPanel3:DisruptorsPanel4:AnatomyofaConsumerInthisreportwewriteupthemainconclusionsandhighlightsofeachsession.Withineachsectionofthisreportwegivethem