您好,欢迎访问三七文档
当前位置:首页 > 商业/管理/HR > 商业计划书 > 麦格理亚太地区旅游业菲律宾旅游业新兴增长驱动力20194340页
Pleaserefertopage38forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsite(CEBPM)-Spreadingitswings23BloomberryResorts(BLOOMPM)26AyalaLand(ALIPM)29RobinsonsRetailHoldings(RRHIPM)32PuregoldPriceClub(PGOLDPM)35TouristarrivalsSource:DOT,MacquarieResearch,April2019NumberofdomestictripsSource:Companydata,MacquarieResearch,April2019AnalystsMacquarieCapitalSecurities(Philippines)Inc.KarisaMagpayo+6328570899karisa.magpayo@macquarie.comGilbertLopez+6328570892gilbert.lopez@macquarie.comKervinSisayan,CFA+6328570893kervin.sisayan@macquarie.comTourisminthePhilippinesEmerginggrowthdriverKeypointsWethinktourismisbecomingakeygrowthdriverofthePHeconomy.Attractiveopportunitiesaboundforthetourismindustrytofurtherdevelop.OurtoppicksamongtourismplaysareCEB,BLOOMandALI.GrowingdriverofthePHeconomyTourismisbecomingakeygrowthdriverofthePHeconomy.ItscontributiontoGDPhasgoneupfrom6%in2010to12%in2017.Theindustryemployed5.3mworkersin2017,or13%ofthecountry’stotalemployment,upfrom11%in2010.Touristarrivalshaveregistereda10%CAGRover2015-18,whiledomestictripshaverisenat~20%since2016andalreadysurpassedthegovernment’s2022Etarget.Internaltourism(inboundanddomestic)expendituregrewatarobustpaceof28%in2017,takingitsshareofGDPto19.6%—upfrom9.1%in2010.SignificantupsidepotentialWhilethenumberoftourists(inboundanddomestic)hasbeentrendinghigher,webelievethereissignificantscopeforfurtherupsideonthebackof:1)steppedupmarketingeffortsbythegovernment;2)rehabilitationofmajortouristspots;3)acceleratedinfrastructuredevelopments—withafocusonimprovingexistingandbuildingnewairports(internationalanddomestic);and4)increasedinvestmentsbytheprivatesector(especiallyintransportandaccommodation).ThegovernmentcurrentlyexpectstouristarrivalsandvisitorreceiptstoregisteraCAGRof14%and16%,respectively,over2018-22(governmentisrevisitingtargetsfordomestictourisminlightofstronger-than-expectedperformance).WaystoplaythetourismthematicDirectplays:Keybeneficiariesofaboomingtourismindustryare:CebuPacific(CEBPM),aleadingcarrierinthePhilippines,withadominant53%domesticmarketshare;BloomberryResorts(BLOOMPM),agamingcompanythattargetslargelyforeignplayers;andAyalaLand(ALIPM),apropertydeveloperwithsignificantinvestmentsinhotelsandresorts.PHconsumerstockswithatourismangle:Uptrendintouristspending,expansionoftourism-relatedindustries,creationofjobsandincreaseinwealthlevelsbodewellfordomesticconsumption.WethinkRobinsonsRetail(RRHIPM)ispositionedtocapturetheincreaseintouristspend.PuregoldPriceClub(PGOLDPM),meantime,alsocaterstoinstitutionalcustomers(hotels,restaurants)–awayforittoalsoparticipateinthegrowth.PHtourismplaysShpriceTPTSRRiskPE(x)EPSgrowth(%)PBV(x)ROE(%)Yield(%)LCRecLC(%)2019E2020E2019E2020E2019E2019E2019EDirecttourismplaysCEB81.40O111.0039.7L6.46.239.23.91.016.43.4BLOOM11.70O15.2531.2H15.913.17.721.23.020.30.9ALI45.00O50.0012.3L18.816.820.012.03.017.31.1PickswithinPHconsumerspaceRRHI79.00O95.0021.1L24.220.4-16.418.62.18.90.9PGOLD47.70O55.5017.3L20.217.31.216.72.111.50.9Source:FactSet,MacquarieResearch,April2019.Pricedasof1Apr2019.6.06.67.18.212.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.02016201720182019E2022ETouristarrivals(m)m+11.0%YoY+7.7%YoY+15.0%YoY79.396.797.076.379.382.585.889.20.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.020162017Nov-1820182019202020212022Estimatedno.oftrips(m)+21.9%YoYmDOTtargetMacquarieResearchTourisminthePhilippines3April20192EmerginggrowthdriverWethinkthetourismindustryisbecomingakeygrowthdriverofthePhilippineeconomy.GrowingcontributionoftourismtothePHeconomy.In2017,tourismcontributed12.2%totheeconomy1,upfromjust6.2%in2010(averagein2000-2010was6.0%).While2018figureshaveyettobereleased,contributionofthetourismindustrymayhavetrendedhigher,consideringthehealthygrowthofinboundanddomesticvisitorsrecordedlastyear—foreigntouristarrivalsgrew7.7%(to7.1m)in2018.Meantime,thenumberofdomestictripshadreached97masofNovember2018,havingalreadysurpassed2017’s96.7mandgovernment’soriginaltargetof89.2mfor2022.Fig1Tourismdirectgrossvalueadded(TDGVA)Fig2TDGVAasa%ofGDPSource:PhilippineStatisticsAuthority,MacquarieResearch,April2019Source:PhilippineStatisticsAuthority,MacquarieResearch,April2019Fig3VisitorarrivalstothePhilippinesFig4EstimatednumberofdomestictripsSource:DepartmentofTourism,MacquarieResearch,April2019Source:DepartmentofTourism,PhilippineStatisticsAuthority,MacquarieResearch,April2019Stillsmallcomparedtoneighbouringcountriesintheregion…ThePhilippinescurrentlydoesnotattractasmanytouristsasitsregionalpeers,withtouristarrivalsinthePhilippinesjustone-fifthofthenumberinThailand.Tourismreceipts(fromforeigntravellers)inthePhilippinesalsoonlyaccountsfor2.3%ofGDP(nominal)vs12.3%inThailand.1MeasuredbytheshareofTourismDirectGrossValueAdded(TDGVA)tonominalGDP;TDGVAwasderivedbasedontheProductionAccountsofTourismIndustriesandOtherIndustriesandTotalDomesticSupplyandInternalTourismConsumption0%5%10%15%20%25%30
本文标题:麦格理亚太地区旅游业菲律宾旅游业新兴增长驱动力20194340页
链接地址:https://www.777doc.com/doc-6798455 .html