麦格理全球宏观经济年中展望贸易战和它造成的损失20197847页

8July2019GlobalSalesandTradingpersonnelatMacquariearenotindependentand,therefore,theinformationhereinmaybesubjecttocertainconflictsofinterest,andmayhavebeensharedwithotherpartiespriortopublication.Note:TotheextentMacquarieResearchisreferenced,itisidentifiedassuchandtheassociateddisclaimersareincludedinthepublishedresearchreport.Pleaserefertotheimportantdisclosures(Australia)[e-mail][e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail][e-mail]edLarryHu,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail](Europe)[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail],[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]npreparedbySalesandTradingpersonnelatMacquarieandisnotaproductoftheMacquarieResearchDepartment.GlobalEconomicandMarketsOutlook:Mid-YearUpdateTheTariffsandtheDamageDone…Thisyearmarksthe10thanniversaryoftheglobalexpansion,makingitthelongestinthepost-warperiod.WhileglobalGDPgrowthhasaveragedarespectable2¾%saar–apacesimilartotheaverageofthepast40years–inthemainithasfeltunfulfilling,ascentralbankshaveworked(mostlyunassistedbythepoliticalclasses)tosupportoutputinthefaceofnumerousstructuralheadwinds.Whilewedon’tthinkexpansionsdieofoldage,theongoingslowdown,alongwiththerecenttariffincreases,hasseenmarketsonceagaincontemplatethepossibilityofrecession.Thebig“knownunknown”isthepathofthetradewar.Whiletheprobabilityofafurtherescalationisdifficulttoassess,inourcentralscenarioweassumetheUSannouncesa10%tariffontheremainingimportsfromChinainSeptember,beforealonger-lasting“ceasefire”intheNewYear,justintimefortheUSelection(weseetheprobabilityofanH2escalationassomethinglike60%).Inthisworld,afterslowingtoaround2¼%saarinQ2,globalGDPgrowthislikelytodiptoalittlebelow2%byQ4,beforegraduallyrecoveringnextyear,asFedeasing,Chinesestimulus(weexpectanotherpushinearlyQ4)anddiminishedtradeuncertaintysupportactivity.Whiletheriskofrecessioncontinuestobuild–theNYFed’syieldcurve-basedmodelestimatesaprobabilityofaround30%–theslowdownstillfeelsmorelikearepeatof2012and2016thanthebeginningofsomethingmoresinister.Withtradeandindustrialproductionalreadyweak,however,theriskisthatbusinessinvestmentcontinuestoslowinthefaceofhighertariffsandpolicyuncertainty(ashasalreadyoccurredintheUKasBrexituncertaintyweighs).Businessescouldalsoslowhiring,whichinturncouldhitconsumption.WeexpecttheFedtocutthefedfundsratethreetimesoverthenext6months,whiletheECBwillcutthedepositrateby10basispointstominus50,andpossiblyrestartQE.Long-terminterestratesarelikelytofallmodestlyfurtherinH2,butthenmovealittlehigherover2020asgrowthrecovers.However,withgrowthintheUSexpectedtobearoundtrendnextyear,itisunlikelytheFedwillbeabletoreversethecutsaheadofthenextminidownturnthatcouldarrivesometimein2021,suggestinglimitedupsideforyields.HighertariffscouldseecurrencysafehavensbenefitinH2,withtheUSdollarandtheYentheprimebeneficiaries.However,astheyearcomestoanend,enthusiasmfora“weak”dollaramongtheUSpoliticalclassescouldbuild.Forcommoditymarketsthissuggestsfurtherdownwardpressureovertheremainderofthisyear,althoughasalwaysperformancewilldiverge,withgoldbenefitingfromtheuncertaintywhileironoreandcoppercomeunderpressure.Equitymarketsarealreadypricingrecovery,andcouldfeeldisappointedinthenextfewmonthsasgrowthslows.However,historysuggeststhatthemarketislikelytobesupportedbytheeconomicrecoveryin2020–oncetheFed“put”isinplay,equitiesonlyfallmateriallyiftheeconomytipsintorecession.GlobalEconomicandMarketsOutlook:Mid-YearUpdate8July20192ContentsGlobaleconomicoutlook:Intheeyeofthetariffstorm.....................................................................................3UnitedStates:Tradepolicyuncertaintyandslowergrowth..............................................................................9China:Stimuluscouldescalatelaterthisyear................................................................................................13Eurozone:ECBlift-offunlikelybeforethenextdownturn...............................................................................17Japan:Sustainedmonetaryaccomodationamidweakinflation.....................................................................20A