瑞信美股农业化肥行业农业科学领域北美的季节性并不证明看涨是正确的201942945页

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.29April2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchFertilizersAgriculturalSciencesSectorQUARTERLYResea[e-mail]@[e-mail]@[e-mail]@[e-mail]@credit-suisse.comNASeasonalityDoesn'tJustifyBullishness…■AwaitingUS/ChinaTradeCatalysts,GlobalAgSentimentMixed:Asweheadinto2H19,thekeycatalystfortheagworldremainsaUS/Chinatradeagreement.Theconsensusviewremainsthatanyannouncementwillbeapositive.Weconcedetheheadlinewillbeconstructiveforglobalagmarkets,butstresssubstance(orlackthereof)iswhat'smaterialinthelongrun.Thecompositionofthepublicized~$30blnincreaseincross-bordertradeshouldbethefocus,specificallyanythinginrelationtosoy,coarsegrains,ethanolandproteins.Inourview,USfarmerswilleventuallybebetteroff(offofarelativelylowbase),butinvestorsneedtobenimbleonplayingthetheme.WefavorFMCand/orCorteva(atlowerlevels),butacknowledgeCFwilllikelygainmomentumonthepositiveheadlinenewsflow.Onthelatter,Niscomfortablysuppliedwellinto'20/'21(evenw/amaterialdemandboost),renderingourneutralviewunchanged.FromourUSFoodTeam'sperspective,thebestwaytoinvestinthecatalystisTSN.■AfricanSwineFluSpreading,ButFeedInflectionAwaitsin'20:It'sourviewinvestorsareunderestimatingtheeffectsofAFS,whichwilllikelydragonAsianfeeddemandintothe2H.USproteinfarmersarereapingbenefitsintheinterimduetohigherhog/poultryprices,akeystabilizingforcetooffsetregionalsluggishness.AFSisalreadyaNTnegative,butaneventualcontainmentoftheissuewillleadtoasnapbackinglobalfeeddemandasweheadinto'20(requires~6monthstoraiseahog).Bottomline,AFSwillcontinuetomutesoy/mealpricesinto2H19,butaneventualreversalwilllikelyleadtosubstantialfeeddemand,aconstructiveset-upfor'20.■SpringNPriceRallytoPlateau,StillPlentyofSupplyAvailability:ThewellanticipatedNpriceseasonalityappearstobematerializing,asNOLAvolumesappeartobeflowing-throughrightuprivertotheMidwest.AsthefertgrouptraditionallytradesonNTpriceaction,we'renotsurprisedtoseerecentralliesmaterializeinNnames.WecautionrecentmovesarelikelytobeshortlivedassupplyavailabilityremainsampleinbothN&P,whileKappearsstableuntilatleastFall(CSemodestEuroChemramps).OntheNfront,morethanampleglobalsupplyavailabilityexistsinthe$260/t-290/trange,placingaceilingonprices–wecitetradeinammoniaandUANwillremainchallengingwellinto2H19.TurningtoglobalPprices,weargueChineseDAPFOBpricesinthe~$375/trangewillbethenormfortheNTandstressthereisstillamplesupplytomeetstabledemand(curtailmentsonlylimitfurthersloppiness);westillfailtoseeacogentargumentforapricedeck$400/tTampaintheintermediateterm.GlobalKpricestabilityshouldcontinueinto2H19,butwe'repayingcloseattentiontodemandandimpendingEuroChemramps(Usolskiyontrack,Volgakaliya'20theme).■NewEstimates:FMC('19EPS$5.75,TP$96),MOS('19EPS$2.15TP$30),NTR('19EPS$2.85,TP$56),andCF('19EPS$2.00,TP$45).Risksinclude:weather,FX,andrawmaterials.29April2019AgriculturalSciencesSector2TableofcontentsGlobalNitrogenOverview7GlobalPotashOverview15GlobalPhosphatesOverview19AsiaPalmOilSector23GlobalSoftCommodityOverview27GlobalFXOverview28RecommendedReading30CSGlobalAgricultureTeam31CFIndustriesHoldingInc.(CF)32MosaicCo.(MOS)34NutrienLtd.(NTR)36FMCCorporation(FMC)3829April2019AgriculturalSciencesSector3Figure1:SummaryofEstimateChangesEPSEstimatesPrev.EstimatesFY19FY20FY19FY20NTR$56$55$2.85$3.00$2.95$2.95Weseestablepotashpricinguntil2H19/20whenheadwindsshouldbegintomount.Nitrogenpricingwilllikelybevolatileagainin'19butcapitaldeploymentremainskeyoptionality.MOS$30--$2.15$2.15$2.15$2.26RiskstoPpricingareamplein'19asnewcapacityrampsinMENA,andpotentialremainsforIndianproductiontorecoverfromlowbase,butwellunderstoodKpricingshouldbestableuntilsupplyheadwindsbegintobuildinlate2H19/early'20.CF$45$46$2.00$3.05$2.05$3.20Wecontinuetoseechoppynitrogenpricesasnewsupplycomesonlineininternationalmarkets.Fluctuationsinglobalgaspricesandavailabilityalsoaddtotheriskofvolatilityin'19asproductionremainsidledinseveralkeygeographies.FMC$96--$5.75$6.90$5.75$6.90Weseeopportunitiestooutpaceagmarketgrowthin2019(esp.inIndia)asRyanxypyrandCyazypyrcontinuetogainshare,whilemarginsshouldinflectin'20asintegrationcostsrolloff.TickerTPPrev.TPCommentsSource:CreditSuisseestimates29April2019AgriculturalSciencesSector4GlobalAgMarketUpdatesGlobalMarketSummaryUSfarmerscontinuetoanxiouslywaitforth