美国农业部USDACottonandWoolOutlook20170313USDA

U.S.NetTextileandApparelImportsSteadyin2016U.S.nettextileandapparelfiberimportswerestableincalendaryear2016,near2015’srecord.In2016,netimportsapproached15.8billionraw-fiber-equivalentpounds(fig.1).Totalfiberproductimportsreached19.3billionpoundsin2016,comparedwith19.6billionpoundsin2015.Meanwhile,textileandapparelproductexportstotaled3.5billionpoundsin2016,comparedwithnearly3.8billionpounds.Withsyntheticproductimportsrisingfor7consecutiveyears,cotton’ssharehasdeclinedsteadilyduringthisperiod.Forthelast3years,syntheticproductshaveaccountedforthelargestshareoftotalnetimports.In2016,synthetictextileandapparelproductscontributed50percentoftotalnetimports,whilecottonproductssupplied43percentandlinen,wool,andsilkproductsprovidedanadditional7percent.Comparedwith5yearsago,thecontributionshavebeenreversed.In2011,cottonaccountedfor50percentofthetotalnetimports,whilesyntheticsprovided44percent.04812162020092010201120122013201420152016CottonSyntheticLinen,wool,andsilkSources:USDA,EconomicResearchServiceandU.S.Dept.ofCommerce,U.S.CensusBureau.Figure1U.S.netimportsoftextileandapparelfiberproductsBillionpoundsCalendaryearNote:[e-mail]ceSituationandOutlookCWS-17cReleaseDateMarch13,2017CottonandWoolChartGallerywillbeupdatedonMarch15,2017.--------------ThenextreleaseisApril13,2017.--------------ApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard.DomesticOutlookU.S.CottonSupplyandDemandRevisedinMarchTheU.S.cottoncropfor2016/17increased271,000balesthismonthto17.2millionbales(uplandat16.7millionbalesandextra-longstapleat565,000bales)basedondataintheMarchCottonGinningsreport.Thelatest2016/17estimateisone-thirdlargerthanthepreviousseason’scropandwouldbethelargestsince2012/13.USDAwillreleasethefinalU.S.cottonproductionestimateforthe2016croponMay10.Basedonthecurrentcropestimateandbeginningstocksof3.8millionbales,the2016/17cottonsupplytotaledabout21millionbales,27percentmorethanlastseasonandthelargestsince2010/11.Withthelargersupply,totaldemandforU.S.cottonisalsoprojectedhigher.For2016/17,U.S.cottondemandisestimatedat16.5millionbales,similartothetotalreachedin2012/13.WhileU.S.millusein2016/17isestimatedatonly3.3millionbales,exportsareforecasttoreboundsignificantlyto13.2millionbales.Throughthefirsthalfof2016/17,U.S.textilemillsused1.6millionbalesofcotton,comparedwith1.7millionbalesayearago.Milluseduringthesecondhalfoftheseasonisexpectedtoimproveslightly.Incontrast,U.S.cottonexportsin2016/17areprojectedtoincreasenearly45percentfromayearago.IncreasedsuppliesintheUnitedStatesin2016/17,alongwithahigherforeignimportdemandandreducedcompetitors’exports,areexpectedtopushU.S.cottonexportstoa6-yearhigh(fig.2).Asaresult,theU.S.shareofglobaltradeisforecasttoriseaswelltonearly37percent,thehighestsince2010/11.U.S.cottonexportcommitmentsthroughthefirst7monthsof2016/17totaled12.1millionbales,comparedwith7.2millionbalesforthecorrespondingperiodlastseason.Shipmentsduring2016/17havereached7.3millionbales,or55percentofthecurrentexportforecast.Atthecomparableperiodduring2015/16,shipmentshadachievedonly44percentoffinalexports.Weeklyexportsremainstrong,averagingover400,000balesduringthelatest6-weekperiod.Additionally,fortheweekendingMarch2,U.S.cottonexportshipmentssurpassed500,000bales,afirstfortheseasonandoneofthelargestshipmentweeksrecordedsincetheearly1970s.2CottonandWoolOutlook/CWS-17c/March13,2017EconomicResearchService,USDAWithU.S.cottondemandbelowproductionforthethirdconsecutiveseason,stocksareestimatedtorisemoderately.For2016/17,U.S.endingstocksareprojectedat4.5millionbales,700,000balesor18percentabove2015/16.However,basedonthesupplyanddemandestimates,the2016/17stocks-to-useratioisprojectedtodecreaseslightlyto27percent.TheaveragepricereceivedbyU.S.uplandcottonproducersisexpectedtorisefrom2015/16’s61.2centsperpoundtorangebetween67and70centsperpound.Atthemidpointof68.5centsperpound,U.S.priceswouldbethehighestin3years.U.S.RetailCottonConsumptionDeclinesin2016U.S.domesticcottonconsumption(milluseplusnettextileimports)decreasedslightlyincalendar2016toapproximately8.5billion(raw-fiber-equivalent)pounds,or17.6millionbale-equivalents(fig.3).Despiteareductionfrom2015’s8.7billionpounds,2016wasthesecondhighestin6years.However,the2016retailcottonconsumptionestimateremainsmorethan20percentbelowtherecordsetincalendar2006.U.S.cottonproductimportsandexportsbothmovedlowerin2016aspolyestercontinuestogainshareatcotton’sexpense.Cottonproductimportsapproached8.6billionpoundsincalendaryear2016,3percentbelow2015;atthesametime,cottonproductexportsdeclined7percentto1.7billionpoundsin2016.Meanwhile,2016U.S.cottonmilluseslippedto1.6billionpounds.Asaresult,theU.S.percapitaestimateofretailcottonconsumptiondecreasednearlyapoundto26poundsin2016,withU.S.milluseofcottonaccountingfor5poundsofthetotal.3CottonandWoolOutlook/CWS-17c/March13,2017EconomicResearchService,USDAInternationalOutlookWorld2016/17CottonProductionHigherinMarchGlobalcottonproductionthisseasonisforecastat105.7millionbales,upthismonthp