美国农业部美股农业行业美国牲畜乳制品和家禽展望2020年大多数红肉和家禽的出口预测将更高201906

ApprovedbyUSDA’sWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoardLivestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlook2020ExportsforMostRedMeatsandPoultryForecastHigherU.S.exportsofredmeatandpoultryareexpectedtoincreasebymorethan4percentin2020.Beefexportsareforecasttoincrease2.7percent,largelyduetoloweranticipatedcompetitioninAsianmarkets,asbeefsuppliesinOceaniawillreflectweather-relatedherdreductionthisyear.Porkexportsareexpectedtoincreasemorethan7percentnextyearasMexicandemandforU.S.porkisre-establishedfollowingtheremovaloftariffsinmid-May,2019.Broilerexportgrowthisforecastat2.3percentbasedonexpectationsofincreaseddemandinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,particularlyastheglobalmeatandpoultrymarketispressuredbyshiftingChinesedemand.Growthof3percentisanticipatedforturkeyexportsnextyear,supportedbystrengthinshipmentstoMexico—thelargestbuyerofU.S.turkeymeat—withcontinuedlowturkeypricesexpectedtodrawadditionalinternationalbuyinginterest.LambandmuttonexportsarelikelytofallasU.S.productiontrendslower.Exportvolumesforeggsandeggproductsareforecasttodecreaseby3percent,basedonexpectationsofcontinuedsoftnessinforeigndemand.Dairyexportsareexpectedtogrow3.3percentnextyearasglobaldemandfordairyproductsgrows.2.77.4-8.42.33.0-33.3-10-8-6-4-20246810BeefPorkLamb&MuttonBroilersEggs%Percentchangeinexports(2020/2019)Dairy*Source:USDA,EconomicResearchService.*Dairyexportsarereflectedonaskim-solidsmilk-equivalentbasis.TurkeyEconomicResearchService|SituationandOutlookReportNextreleaseisJuly17,2019LDP-M-300|June17,20192Livestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlook,LDP-M-300,June17,2019USDA,EconomicResearchServiceBeef/Cattle:Thecostoffeedingcattleisexpectedtorisethisyear,likelyslowingthepaceofplacementsinfeedlotsandreducinganticipatedmarketings.Thispromptedforecastsforbeefproductionin2019and2020tobereducedslightlyonlowerexpectedfedcattleslaughter.Cattlepriceforecastswereloweredtoreflectcurrentpriceweakness.Beefimportscontinuetoexceedyear-earlierlevels,butexportslagbehindinearly2019.Dairy:Duetorecentdeclinesinmilkcownumbers,relativelyhighslaughterlevels,andhigherexpectedfeedprices,milkproductionforecastshavebeenloweredfor2019and2020.DairyexportswererelativelyweakinApril,andexportforecastshavebeenloweredforboth2019and2020.Theall-milkpriceforecastfor2019is$18.00percwt,5centslowerthanlastmonth’sforecast.Theall-milkpriceforecastfor2020is$18.90percwt,10centshigherthanlastmonth’sforecast.Pork/Hogs:Estimatedgrossprocessingmarginshavebeenconsistentlyyear-over-yearlowersinceearlyApril.Whilesecond-quarterpricesofbothhogsandwholesaleporkcutshavebeenyear-over-yearhigher,hogpriceshaveincreasedrelativelyfaster,andprocessormarginshavebeensqueezedasaresult.TherescissionofMexicantariffsonU.S.porklargelypromptedupwardrevisionsinU.S.porkexportforecastsforboth2019and2020.Poultry/Eggs:Second-quarterbroilerforecastwasrevisedupbasedonhigheraverageweights,whilethe2020productionforecastwasloweredonexpectationsforhigherfeedcosts.The2019and2020broilerpriceforecastswereloweredbasedonweakdomesticdemandandhigher-than-anticipatedcoldstorageinventories.The2019second-quarterexportforecastwasreviseddownonslower-than-expectedglobaldemand.The2020eggproductionforecastwasdecreasedbasedonexpectationsfortighteningproducermargins.Theeggpriceforecastwasdecreasedforboth2019and2020ontheanticipationthatsupplywillcontinuetooutpacedemand.The2019second-quartereggandeggproductexportforecastwasrevisedupbasedonincreasingshipmentsofshelleggs.Turkeyproductionisreviseddownwardby5millionpoundsin2019and40millionpoundsin2020duetoanticipatedincreasedfeedcosts.Iftheforecastisrealized,productiongrowthwouldbevirtuallyflatbetween2018and2020.3Livestock,Dairy,andPoultryOutlook,LDP-M-300,June17,2019USDA,EconomicResearchServiceBeef/CattleRussellKnightandLekhnathChalise2019and2020BeefProductionMarginallyLowerfromLastMonthThe2019beefproductionforecastwasreducedmarginallyfromlastmonthto27.2billionpounds,asexpectedfourth-quarterproductionmorethanoffsetsaslightincreaseinexpectedsecond-quarterproduction.Productioninsecond-quarter2019wasraisedbasedongreaterexpectedfedcattleslaughter(i.e.,steersandheifers)thatwaspartiallyoffsetbylowerexpectedcarcassweights.Fourth-quarter2019productionwasloweredonanticipatedreducedfedcattleslaughterduetofewerexpectedplacementsinsecond-quarter2019.Theforecastfor2020beefproductionwasloweredmarginallyfromlastmonth’sforecastto27.4billionpounds,alsobasedonanticipationoffewerfedcattleslaughtered.FeedPricesToSlowFeedlotPlacementsinSecond-Half2019AccordingtotheMayCattleonFeedreport,1theMay1cattle-on-feednumberincreasedmorethan2percentfromthepreviousyearto11.8millionhead,thelargestnumberofcattleonfeedforthemonthofMaysincereportingbeganin1996.Nearly7percentmorefedcattleweremarketedinAprilthanatthesametimelastyear.WhenadjustedfortheadditionalweekdayofslaughteravailablecomparedtoApril2018,marketingswereonlyabout2percenthigherinApril2019.Alsobasedonthereport,thenumberofnetplacements(totalplacementsminusdisappearance)ofcattleinfeedlotswas1.8millionhead,whichwasabout9percentabovethepreviousyear’slevel.Thereportshowedthatplacementsoffeedercat