高盛精确农场用数字农业欺骗马尔萨斯

Innovationflourisheswheretherearebigproblemstosolve,andfewproblemsareaslargeastheneedtofeedtheworld.InthelatestinourProfilesinInnovationseries,weexplorehowagricultureoffersfertilegroundforaconfluenceoftechnologytrends,fromsensorsandtheInternetofThingstodrones,bigdataandautonomousdriving.WeseethepotentialforPrecisionFarmingtoliftcropyields70%by2050andcreatea$240billionmarketforfarmtech,addingtoagriculture’slonghistoryofholdingoffaMalthusiancrisis.GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotofiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.EQUITYRESEARCH|July13,2016CheatingMalthuswithDigitalAgriculturePROFILESININNOVATIONPrecisionFarmingJerryRevich,CFA(212)[e-mail],Sachs&Co.RobertKoort,CFA(713)[e-mail],Sachs&Co.PatrickArchambault,CFA(212)[e-mail],Sachs&Co.AdamSamuelson(212)[e-mail],Sachs&Co.MichaelNannizzi(917)[e-mail],Sachs&Co.MohammedMoawalla+44(20)[e-mail]onalAndrewBonin(917)[e-mail],Sachs&Co.July13,2016ProfilesinInnovationGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2ContentsPRECISIONFARMINGinnumbers3PrecisionFarming:CheatingMalthuswithDigitalAgriculture4TheEcosystem:PrecisionFarming-KeyPlayers12TheEcosystem:PrecisionFarming–TAMsandpotentialvalueadded13FieldNotes:Viewsfrom60experts15KEYTECHNOLOGIES$240bnaddressablemarket16Technologieschangingthefaceoffarming17PrecisionFertilizerApplication:$65bnaddressablemarket,$200bnpotentialvalue-add20PrecisionPlanting:$45bnaddressablemarket,$145bnpotentialvalue-add22CompactionReductionviaSmallTractors:$45bnaddressablemarket,$145bnpotentialvalue-add24PrecisionSpraying:$15bnaddressablemarket,$50bnpotentialvalue-add27PrecisionIrrigation:$35bnaddressablemarket,$115bnpotentialvalue-add28FieldMonitoring30DataManagement32Selectcompanieswithexposure35SummaryofselectinvestmentsinPrecisionFarmingtechnologies39DisclosureAppendix40ThisisthefifthreportintheProfilesinInnovationseriesanalyzingemergingtechnologiesthatarecreatingprofitpoolsanddisruptingoldones.Accesspreviousreportsintheseriesbeloworvisitourportaltolearnmoreandseerelatedresources.VirtualandAugmentedRealityDronesFactoryoftheFutureBlockchainContributingauthors:JerryRevichCFA,RobertD.Boroujerdi,HugoScott-Gall,PatrickArchambaultCFA,RobertKoortCFA,AdamSamuelson,MichaelNannizzi,StephenGramblingCFA,MohammedMoawalla,JesseHulsing,NoahPoponakCFA,StefanBurgstaller,YuichiroIsayama,AndrewBonin,DavidTamberrinoCFA,JayYang,BrookeRoach,MathewPorat,LincolnKongCFA,DeepshikhaAgarwal,GautamPillai,ChristopherEvansPh.D,RyanBerney,DrewCohen,GungunVerma.PRECISIONFARMINGinnumbersACHALLENGINGSCENARIOAverageageofafarmer(inyears)intheUS–anumberthathasconsistentlymovedupoverthepast30years.(p.14)58yrsProportionofirrigationoutsidetheUSusingfloodmethodresultinginlossofefficiency.(p.29)90%Potentialtech-drivenimprovementinyieldsby2050.(p.7)70%Percentageofgrainconsumptionin2015thatChina–theworld’smostpopulouscountry–imported.(p.5)40%Totaladdressabledigitalagriculturaltechnologymarket.(p.8)$240bn9.7bnExpectedworldpopulationby2050,translatinginto70%requiredgrowthinglobalfoodsupplyfromcurrentlevels.(p.5)THEHUGEOPPORTUNITYPotentialreductioninwaterwastewithprecisionirrigationsystemspairedwithwatersensors.(p.28)50%WATERWASTEDOne600hptractorweighing~45,000lbLIGHTERONTHESOILManualvsautonomoustractorsTen60hpautonomoustractorsweighing~5,000lbeachGlobalcropproductionvaluein2015.(p.8)$1.2tnCURRENTPRODUCTIONPercentageofover-fertilizedfields.(p.20)40%Yieldlosssufferedfrominadequatefertilizerapplication.(p.20)15%-20%IMPRECISEAPPLICATIONOFINPUTSJuly13,2016ProfilesinInnovationGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch4PrecisionFarming:CheatingMalthuswithDigitalAgricultureFarminghaslongbeenaprovinggroundfortheadage“necessityisthemotherofinvention.”Fromtheintroductionofthesteelplowandreaperover200yearsagotomodernadvanceslikelargescaleplantersandgeneticallymodifiedseeds,mancontinuestofindnewwaystofeedtheworld’sgrowingpopulation.Aswenearthelimitsofavailablearableland,aconfluenceoftechnologiesisdrivinganewlegofproductivityinPrecisionFarmingtoenablegrowerstomeetthedemandchallengefromexistingland.AproblemofMalthusianproportionsTheworldhasalong-termfoodsupplychallenge.AndaccordingtothemoderndayMalthusians,it’saproblemthatmankindcan’tsolve.Butwe’vebeenherebeforemanytimes.ThomasMalthuswasan18thcenturyscholarandclericwhoarguedthatpopulationgrowthisexponentialwhilefoodgrowthisarithmetic,resultinginaninevitableperiodoffoodshortage.Histheorygarneredalotofattentionnottheleastbecauseitspoke