2016年全球奢侈品消费需求报告英文版

LUXURYGOODSWhobuyswhere:Decryptingcross-borderLuxuryDemandFlows8JULY2016at07:45*Wecontinuetoexplorethe“realnature”ofluxurygoodsinthisnote,thethirdinstalmentofthisseries(pleaseseeLUXURYGOODS:MythsandRealityofLuxuryDemand–Investmentimplicationsgoinginto2016aswellasLUXURYGOODS:EntryPricePointsandtherealNatureofLuxuryGoods).Wefocusthistimeonthenaggingquestionofwhoactuallybuysluxurygoodsproductsandwheretheycomefrom,inanefforttocomplementwhatweconsidertobeless-than-idealindustrydisclosure,largelylimitedtogeographyofsales.WeleveragedatafromdigitalandphysicalretailwithContactLabtocreatea“first”inluxuryanalysis:adetailedbreakdownbynationalityofluxuryspendinallgeographiesworldwide.WeleveragedatafromdigitalandphysicalretailtodovetailthegeographyandnationalityofluxurysalesWerecordthe%ofsalesineverycountry,frombothdomesticandforeigncustomers.Atthesametime,weascertainwhereexactlyintheworldeachnationalitybuysluxurygoodsproducts.Wetrackthenationalityvs.geographyofluxurydemandoverthepastthreeyears.Thisisrelevant:in201530%ofluxurygoodsproductswereboughtabroad–withhugeinterchangebetweenAsiaandEurope.Weidentifyfiveclusters:1)theUSA,JapanandKoreahaverelativelylimitedinterchangewiththeROW;2)Europe–France,Italy,Spain,SwitzerlandandtheUK–benefitfrommassiveinflowsandlowoutflows;3)HongKongandMacauarelikeEuropeonsteroids;4)EMsarethelargestcontributorstointernationalluxurysales,whilebenefittingfromverylimitedinflows;5)theUAEandtheGulfingeneralareinauniqueposition,withbothrelativelylargeinflowsandoutflows.ThegoodnewsisthatinternationalluxuryspendingseemstobeholdingupOuranalysissuggeststhatinternationalluxurygoodsspendisnotasbadasfeared.Overall,thedatainoursamplepointtoa5%riseindomesticandoverseasluxuryspendinthefirstfourmonthsof2016.Chineseoverseasspenddecreasedby5%,butdomesticspendincreasedby5%–leavinganetpositivebalance.HongKongandMacauwerenetlosersvs.Japan,KoreaandEurope.LucaSolca(+44)[e-mail](+39)[e-mail](+39)[e-mail](+39)[e-mail](+39)[e-mail]*Dateandtime(LondonTime)onwhichtheinvestmentrecommendationwasfinalised.Itmaydifferfromthedateandtimeofbroaddisseminationonthewebsite.SeeAppendix(onp27)forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandNon-USResearchAnalystdisclosures.ExaneBNPParibasResearch&ContactLabLuxuryGoods8July2016page2ContentsExecutiveSummary______________________________________3WhobuysWhere:Decryptingcross-borderLuxuryDemandFlows_5Appendix_____________________________________________22Exane–presentation____________________________________26ContactLabpresentation_________________________________26ExaneBNPParibasResearch&ContactLabLuxuryGoods8July2016page3ExecutiveSummaryWecontinuetoexplorethe“realnature”ofluxurygoodsinthisnote,thethirdinstalmentofthisseries(pleasesee:LUXURYGOODS:MythsandRealityofLuxuryDemand–Investmentimplicationsgoinginto2016aswellasLUXURYGOODS:EntryPricePointsandtherealNatureofLuxuryGoods).Wefocusthistimeonthenaggingquestionofwhoactuallybuysluxurygoodsproductsandwheretheycomefrom,inanefforttocomplementwhatweconsidertobeless-than-idealindustrydisclosure,largelylimitedtogeographyofsales.WeleveragedatafromdigitalandphysicalretailwithContactLabtocreatea“first”inluxuryanalysis:adetailedbreakdownbynationalityofluxuryspendinallgeographiesworldwide.WeleveragedatafromdigitalandphysicalretailtodovetailthegeographyandnationalityofluxurysalesWerecordthe%ofsalesineverycountry,frombothdomesticandforeigncustomers.Atthesametime,weascertainwhereexactlyintheworldeachnationalitybuysluxurygoodsproducts.Wetrackthenationalityvs.geographyofluxurydemandoverthepastthreeyears.Thisisrelevant,as30%ofluxurygoodsproductswereboughtabroadin2015–withhugeinterchangebetweenAsiaandEurope.Weidentifyfiveclusters:1.TheUSA,JapanandKoreahaverelativelylimitedinterchangewiththeROWJapaneseandUSAnationalsmakemorethan90%oftheirluxurypurchasesintheirrespectivecountries–theproportionis80%whenwelookattheSouthKoreans.Foreignersaccountforonly5–15%ofluxurygoodssalesinJapan,SouthKoreaandtheUSA.ThisiseventhoughluxurygoodspurchasesbyChinesenationalsinJapanandKoreahaveriseninrecentyears,onthebackoffavourableFX.TheUSAaccountsfor31%ofthegloballuxurygoodsmarket,whileJapanisat8%andSouthKorea4%.2.Europe–France,Italy,Spain,SwitzerlandandtheUK–benefitfrommassiveinflowsandlittleoutflowsFrench,ItalianandSpanishconsumersbuy85-95%oftheirluxurygoodsintheirrespectivecountries.Butforeignersaccountforthebulkofluxurysalesinthosecountries,rangingfrom70–80%.ThesecountrieshavebenefittedmateriallyinrecentyearsfromaweakeningEUR.Franceaccountsfor7%ofthegloballuxurygoodsmarket,Italyisat7%andSpainc.1%.TheUKandSwitzerlandresembleSouthernEurope–butarealittlelessextreme.SwissandBritishconsumersbuy80–85%oftheirluxurygoodsintheirrespectivecountries,whileforeignersaccountfor50–55%ofluxurysalesinSwitzerlandandtheUK.Switzerlandaccountsforlessthan1%ofthegloballux