汇丰银行全球奢侈品行业为什么中国要以全球奢侈品市场两倍的速度增长2019463页

:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.PlayvideowithErwanRambourgEquitiesGlobalLuxuryGoodsApril2019By:ErwanRambourg,AntoineBelgeandAnne-LaureBismuthPandaLuxuryStaycationWhyChinashouldgrowattwicethegloballuxurymarketpaceRecentRMBappreciationissupportivetosaleswithtravelingChinese,mostlyinAsiaButshiftsinpricing,e-commerce,andtravelretailmeanrepatriationofgrowthinmainlandChinaseemsstructural,growingat12%vs6%globallyperourestimatesin2019WeseeKering,Swatch,Richemont,andSMCP(allBuys)andBurberry(Hold)well-placedtobenefitfromthatrepatriationofgrowthSPOTLIGHT1Equities●GlobalLuxuryGoodsApril2019Thepanda’s2019travellogWehavelittledoubtthatin2019Chineseconsumptionwillonceagainhelpsupportglobalgrowthintheluxurysector.Whiletheremaybesomeshort-termgrowthabroad,webelievethatinthelongrun,luxuryconsumptioninChinaitselfwillgrowmore.TwokeythemesweseeplayingoutwithChinesetravel:Thisyear,wethinkthatluxuryconsumptionoutsideofChinawillbenefit,particularlyastheRMBhasstrengthenedrelativetokeycurrenciesincountrieswhereluxuryconsumptionhappens.Ourtravelingpandastendtofollowthemoney,particularlytheweakercurrencies,sothisbodeswellforluxuryconsumptionoutsideofChina.Othersupportivefactorsincludetheeasingofvisasinmanydestinations,whichmakesiteasierforChinesetouriststotravel,butwethinkthattheactionwillhappenmoreinAsiathaninEurope(security)andtheUS(cost).Longterm,luxuryconsumptionwillhappenincrementallyathome.KeystructuralfactorsthatdiscouragedluxuryconsumptioninChinainthepastareresolving,andtheprogressmadeisalreadybearingfruit.AswenotedinourrecentreportTooBlingtoFail(26Feb2019),afewyearsago,75%ofChineseluxurysaleshappenedoutsideofChina.Weseethatmovingto50-50eitherthisyearornext.Thestructuralfactorssupportingtheincreaseindomesticconsumptionincludetheharmonizationofprices,whichmakesshoppingabroadlessappealingasthepricesnormalize;thecontinueddevelopmentofe-commerceinChinawhichfacilitateseasiershoppingexperiences;andinvestmentsininfrastructureandtravelretailwhichencourageshoppingathome.Inourview,Chinabecamemargin-accretivelastyearforthesectorandnowstandstoexpandboththetoplineaswellasthemarginsforluxury.KeystockswethinkshouldbenefitfromtherepatriationofluxuryconsumptioninChinaincludeKering,Richemont,SMCP,andSwatch,allratedBuy.WealsodiscusstheimplicationsforBurberry,onwhichwehaveaHoldrating.Perourestimates,thesestockshavethegreatestexposuretotheMainlandinourcoverageandthereforestandtobenefitthemostfromtherepatriationofgrowth.Forarecapofotherluxurythemesandstockpreferences,pleaserefertoourrecentTooBlingtoFailthematicreportpublished26February2019.Whyreadthisreport?RecentRMBappreciationissupportivetosaleswithtravelingChinese,mostlyinAsiaButshiftsinpricing,e-commerce,andtravelretailmeanrepatriationofgrowthinmainlandChinalooksstructural,growingat12%vs6%globallyperourestimatesin2019WeseeKering,Swatch,Richemont,andSMCP(allBuys)andBurberry(Hold)well-placedtobenefitfromthatrepatriationofgrowthErwanRambourgGlobalCo-HeadofConsumerandRetailResearchHSBCSecurities(USA)[e-mail][phone]Equities●GlobalLuxuryGoodsApril20192Whyreadthisreport?1Pandastravelandspend3Relatedresearch4Recommendedreading...4Recommendedviewing...4Calendarofevents5ExecutiveSummary6MainlandChinatogrowattwicetheluxuryindustrypace6TravelingpandasandthestrongerRMB9Thisgreatbigworldiscalling9Pandastravelingclosetohome…16Expandingthepanda’shorizon27Bringingitallbackhome32Homeiswheretheheartis…32Asgrowthheadshome,whataretheimplications?40Companyprofiles44SMCP44Richemont45Swatch46Kering47BurberryGroup48Disclosureappendix55Disclaimer60Contents3Equities●GlobalLuxuryGoodsApril2019PandastravelandspendSource:Salesabroad/salesathome:HSBCestimates;Luxurysalesgrowth:HSBCestimates;HongKongwheretopurchase:HSBCChinaDeluxe2019,Toluna;9%haveapassport:Ctrip,JingTravel26Jan2018;Sameday/overnight:HongKongTourismBureauStrongChineseeconomyandhighconsumerconfidencecouldfuelconsumptionandgrowth……makinganencouragingenvironmentforthePanda’stravelandtourism12%6%0%10%20%30%40%50%1stchoice2ndchoice3rdchoiceHongKongisthetopchoiceforwheretopurchaseluxurygoodsSamedayandovernightvisitstoHongKongwereupin2018-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2011201820152020Repatriationofgrowth:ChineseluxuryspendingisshiftingtohomeOverallluxurysalesgrowthin2019eTopcategoriesonwhichChinesearewillingtospendmore:MainlandChinaGlobalaverage20%HKsameday7%HKovernightCosmeticsAccessoriesShoesJewelryApparelPerfumeOtherTaiwanThailandMacauSingaporeKoreaUKItalyChinaUSJapanFranceHongKongOnly9%ofChinesehadapassportin201775%Salesabroad25%Salesathome50%Salesabroad50%SalesathomeEquities●GlobalLuxuryGoodsApril20194RelatedresearchRecommendedreading...TooBlingtoFailWhyscaleandM&Ashouldmatterevenmoreforluxury26February2019ReturnoftheRedBullYearoftheDog:Chineseconsumersareback,butwillthatbeenough?7March2019ChinaDeluxe2019CheckinginonluxuryconsumptioninChina19February2019ChinaDeluxe2018Anatomyofthefutureluxuryconsu