贝恩2019年奢侈品全球市场研究春季版英文2019615页

LUXURYGOODSWORLDWIDEMARKETSTUDY,SPRING2019CLAUDIAD’ARPIZIO|FEDERICALEVATO2190613BainLuxuryStudy...ENT_v1MILPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKETIN2018CONFIRMEDTHE“NEWNORMAL”STARTEDIN2017Democratization“Sortiedutemple”CrisisChinesebulimiaRebootNewnormal+6%'96-'18CAGR+3%+6%'17-18YoYCurrentExch.rateConstantExch.rate3190613BainLuxuryStudy...ENT_v1MILSTRONG2018HOLIDAYSEASONALMOSTEVERYWHEREACROSSTHEWORLDTEMPORARYWEAKENINGOFAMERICANCONSUMERS’SPENDINGTOURISMACCELERATIONFUELINGPOSITIVEGROWTHFOREUROPECHINESECONSUMERSCONFIRMEDASKEYMARKETENGINE•Chineseconsumersdrivingmarketgrowth:accelerationsindomesticspending,attheexpenseofitsneighbors,HongKongandMacau•UncertaintiesonUS–ChinatradewarcausingcontinuingdeclineinAsiantraveltotheUS•WeakeningoftheEuroagainstallmajorcurrenciescausingincreasedtouristinflowstoContinentalEurope•Positivefinalquarterfortheregion,althoughwithdifferencesacrosscountries:BrexitinUKandcontinuoussocio-politicalprotestsinFrancerepresentpotentialrisksforthefutureoftheregion•OngoingchangesinUStaxplancreatingtemporaluncertainties,negativelyimpactingconsumerspendingonpersonalluxurygoods•Mallsanddepartmentstoresunderperformingastrafficcontinuestodecline,whilemonobrandstoresmaintainapositivegrowthtrend4190613BainLuxuryStudy...ENT_v1MILPOSITIVEQ12019PERFORMANCE,WITHCHINESESPENDINGDYNAMICSFUELINGGLOBALLUXURYSCENE8%+5%+Q12019atcurrentexchangeratesatconstantexchangeratesLeatherandJewelrymaintainingasustainedpaceofgrowth,withpositivemomentumforhandbagsaswellBeautyconfirmingpositive2018trend,withsolidgrowthinskin-careandmake-uppartiallyoffsetbymildperformanceinfragrancesApparelstillsluggish,withmenswearsegmentshowingsignsofare-startWatchesonhesitantrecovery,withmixedtrendsacrossregions:HongKongstillsuffering,whileEurope(andUK)onapositivetrend~/++++++EUROPEAMERICASJAPANASIAROW-FragmentedperformancesacrossEU,withimpactofsocio-politicalturmoilinUKandFrancepartiallyoffsettinghighertourismspendingintheEurozonePromisingriseindomesticconsumptiononfull-pricestores,despiteadecliningflowofChinesetouristsMildgrowth,stillfueledbyChineseconsumersChinadominatingtheluxuryscene,withHongKongandMacaulosinggroundMixedperformancesinMiddleEast:softbutpositivere-awakeningofDubai,withQatarandSaudishowingweaktourismluxuryspendingACCESSORIES&JEWELRYBEAUTYAPPARELWATCHES+++++~~/+5190613BainLuxuryStudy...ENT_v1MIL2019FULL-YEAROUTLOOKBYREGION(1/2)AMERICASEUROPEMAINLANDCHINAUSmaintainingitspositivegrowth,fueledbyfull-pricechannelswithstrongdomesticconsumptionintheretailandonlinesegments,plusrevampedtouristflowsfromMexicoandBrazil;off-pricechannelsufferingfromlowerfootfall,signofanuncertainaspirationalcustomerOntheradar:evolvingUS–Chinatradeagreementsposepotentialrisktoluxuryconsumers’confidenceinthecomingmonthsMexicoontherise;Canadastillonapositivetrend,thankstofavorableexchangerateboostinglocalconsumptionandoffsettingreductionintouristpurchasesDifferencesacrosscountriesindomesticconsumptions;regionalperformanceincreasinglystimulatedbytouristsinflowsandspendingduetoweakeningcurrencyWeakeningmacro-economicoutlook,politicalevolutionfollowingrecentelectionsanduncleardevelopmentonBrexitagreementpotentiallydamagingoverallconfidenceoflocalconsumerstowardsluxuryspendingPriceharmonization,consumer-centeredstrategiesandgovernmentalinitiativescontinuingtofavorlocalpurchases:cross-borderluxuryshoppingstillonadecliningtrend,yetrelevantinEuropeduetoexchangerateeffectSolidconsumerconfidenceandwillingnesstobuy,especiallyamongyounggenerations,sustainingluxurypurchases;digitalchannelprovidinganextraboost6190613BainLuxuryStudy...ENT_v1MIL2019FULL-YEAROUTLOOKBYREGION(2/2)RESTOFASIAJAPANRESTOFWORLDPositivegrowthtrendacrosstheentireregion,exceptinHongKongandMacau,impactedbyreducedtouristspending(mainlyfromChinese)Expandingmiddleclass’sdisposableincomefuelinggrowthinSEAcountries:Indonesia,PhilippinesandVietnaminthespotlightSustainedgrowthinS.Korea,particularlyindowntownlocations,primarilyfueledbylocalconsumers,withamildbutencouragingreboundoftouristflowsJapanmaintainingitsexclusivity:boostintravelretailfavoredbythe2020TokyoOlympicgames,withChinesetouristsconfirmingtheirinterestsintheregionIncreasingaverageticketas‘newrich’fromSEAstillprefersplurginginJapanduetomoreproductchoice:creationofnewroutesforgreymarket‘Ikina-rich’ontherise:youngtechentrepreneurslessinterestedinostentatiousluxuryandmoreinexperiencesConfirmeduncertaintiesacrossMiddleEast:domesticconsumerspendingflowingoutsideregionascurrencyappreciates;e-commerceandsoftluxuryregisteringpositiveaccelerationGrowthinAustraliaslowingdownasforeignpurchaserestrictionsandcapitalcontrolsraiseinChinaNewlyemergingeconomiesstilltimidinshowingtheirpotential,mainlyduetoinfrastructuralgaps7190613BainLuxuryStudy...ENT_v1MILGLOBALLUXURYGOODSGROWTHIN2019EXPECTEDSTEADY,CONFIRMINGTHERESPECTIVEGROWTHCONTRIBUTIONOFTHEVARIOUSREGIONSEUROPEAMERICASJAPANRESTOFTHEWORLDMAINLANDCHINARESTOFASIA(EXCLUDINGM.CHINA)+1/3%++2/4%+-2/±0%+18/20%++2/4%+2019FGLOBALPERSONALLUXURYGOODSMARKET+4/6%+ATCONSTANTEXCHANGERATESNote:Figuresrefertogrowthrangesatconstantex