上市公司控制权转移可预测性及市场效果评价研究3

:(1952-),,,,,MPAcc,;(1972-),,,,,3:(:70472051)JensenandRuback,(1983),Schwert(1996),19751991181435%20071031,1,2(11,300071;21,450002):A,,68.72%,60.23%,,:;ANOVA;;,,,,,,,,Logit,,,,,,,:(1),,(2),,(3),,,,,:,,,,,,,(Jensen,1988)[1],,,,JensenRuback(1983)[2]13,20%30%,,,,,,60%90%(PaulBar2nest,1998)[3]Palepu(1986)[4],,Rege(1984)[5]PaulBarnest(1998)Logit,(2000)[6],56©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2003)[7]66.2%(2006)[8]200120022003,51.5%60.5%,(2003)(2006),,,,,,,,,,(SimkowitzandMoroe1971[9];Stevens,1973[10];Palepu,1986;,2000;,2003;,2006),,1.,:,;,(RichardJ.RoigerandMichaelW.Geatz,2003)[11]IDATAESXESX,,,ESX,ESXESX,1,,,,ESX(classresemblance),(domainresemblance),,,,1ESX,,,()(),,,(),,,2.,,,20022003,,2001,,2001,224266Palepu(1986),:(1),,,(2),(3),015,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:QQ,,Q,1,,,Q1,QQ,(),,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,Demond.E.Sorensen(2000)[12],,90Palepu(1986),Palepu(1986),,;,,,,,,,EMX,,11,20021104(84,1020),,20031138(88,1050),,,:1.(1)76q,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2),,,0125,0125,0125(RichardJ.RoigerMi2chaelW.Geatz,2003)2(mean)1183210611840111(sd)117151082115(mean)0156014001540134(sd)014601310145(mean)-01500165-01410104(sd)31106019329187(mean)0102-010301010135(sd)011401210115(mean)0150-010101460110(sd)511801364199(mean)0113-010601110144(sd)014101670144(mean)6164518161580103(sd)311041510130113(mean)0119011201180109(sd)018101510179(mean)0122010801210129(sd)014601320146(mean)9106819191050142(sd)013801310138(mean)4410437171431560134(sd)1815618111181592,,01340144,0125,,,011,,0129,0125,,,,,,,,(Palepu,1986;Adelaja,1999;Demond.E.Sorensen,2000)011,,,SimkowitzandMoroe(1971)Demond.E.Sorensen(2000):86©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1),,,,,,(2),,,,,,,(3),,;,,,,,,(ANOVA),33ANOVAFF1905134210601807910711003164414221114173661548101191641100213153510001820136591079100315105910003,ANOVA(1%),,ANOVA01340144,3.56,EMX,6(),EMX(4)4()()()729321()3553,EMX,1138,782,=68172%,()88,53,60123%;()1050,729,69143%,Logit(),EMX,,?,,,,EMX,3742003AR,:96EMX©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),ARSPSS13103742003AR,55374137-164-10411(t-61239)112745,2003-010411,1%(t-61239),Jensen(1978)[13]:,,,,,,,,,(2000),,,,60123%,,,,:[1]Jensen,M.,CharacteristicofHostileandFriendlyTakeoverTargets:Comment[J].UniversityofChicagoPress,1988.[2]Jensen.MichaelC.,Ruback.RichardS.,TheMarketforCorporateControl:TheScientificEvidence[J].JournalofFinancialEconomics.Apr,1983.[3]PoulBarnes,CantakeoverTargetsbeIdentifiedbyStatisticalTechniques:SomeUKEvidence[J].TheStatistician,1998,47:573-591.[4]Palepu,K.G,predictingTakeoverTarget:AMetbodogicalandEmpricalAnalysis[J].JournalofAc2countingandEconomics,1986,8.[5]Rege,U.P.,AccountingRatiotoLocateTakeoverTargets[J].JournalofBusinessFinance&Accounting,1984,11:301-311.[6]..[J]1,2000,(4):19-25[7]..[J]1,2003,(11):54-64[8]..[J].,2006,(1):77-82[9]Simkowitz,M.,andMonroe,R.J.November,Adiscriminantanalysisfunctionforconglomeratetargets[J].SouthenJournalofbusiness,1971,00:1-16.[10]Stevens,D.l.March,.financialcharacteristicsofmargedfirms:amultivariateanalysis[J].Journaloffi2nancialandquantitativeanalysis,1973,00:149-158.[11]RichardJ.RoigerandMichaelW.Geatz,Datamining:ATutorial-based[J],(ISBN:0-201-74128-8),Addison-Wesley,2003.[12]DonaldE.Sorensen,CharacteristicsofMergingFirms[J].JournalofEconomicandBusiness,2000,52:423-433.[13]Jensen,M.C.(ed),SomeAnomalousEvi2denceRegardingMarketEfficiency[J].JournalofFinan2cialEconomics,June-September,1978.(:)07(2000),,A©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.