麦格理全球零售行业零售业的守门人经济3D模型数字数据与交付20181010173页

Pleaserefertopage171forimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertification,oronourwebsite:Consumerdrivingdisruption30Patents–benchmarkinginnovation43Globalgrocerycasestudies46CanadianGroceryRetail48KeyobservationsforCanadafromourGoogleonlinegrocerysurveys52AustralianGroceryRetail53AustralianSupermarketOfferings54ChinaCaseStudy–newretail68Thefutureoffashionretailing72MacqSurvey:Consumersdrivingdisruptionandachangeinfashionretailmodels74Keychallengesandsuccessfactorsinthenewworldoffashion853IdeasforFutureFashionretail97AI/ML–earlyadoptersbuildamoat110Appendix1:Macq.ConsumerSurvey2018113AholdDelhaize(ADNA)114Carrefour(CAFP)125EmpireCompany(EMP/ACN)135Ocado(OCDOLN)143WoolworthsandWesfarmers170AnalystsMacquarieCapital(Europe)[e-mail],[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail](Australia)[e-mail][e-mail]edLindaHuang,[e-mail][e-mail]ail3DModel:Digital,Data&DeliveryKeypointsWebelieveconsumer-leddigitaldisruptionistransformingRetailintoamoreconcierge-likeservicefromalargelytransactionalonenow.Ourframeworksuggestsonedigitalinterface,data-drivenpersonalisation,andadeliveryedgewithapartnershipculturewillbethekeystosuccess.Webelieveonlinepureplaysarestructuralwinnersinthiscontextbutthereareselectiveofflinewinnerswithtransformativeopportunities.MacquarieSurveyshowsconsumersdrivingsignificantchangeOursix-countryconsumersurveypointstosignificantlatentdemandforonlinegoodsandservices.Throughthissurvey,weseeaclearinterestina‘concierge-like’offerdrivenbyyoungercustomers,risingexpectationsoffasterdelivery,willingnesstopayforit,andConnectedRetailblendingthebestofon/offline.Retailershaveembraceddigitalforalmost20years,buttheiroffersstillhaven’tevolvedtomeettheseexpectations.IntroducingMacquarie’sDisruptiveTechframeworkOurframeworkhighlightsthatcustomersexpectretailerstoprovidepredictive,personalised,frictionlesspurchaseandfulfilment.CompaniesneedtoleveragedatafromonedigitalinterfaceusingAI/MLanddataanalyticswhileadvancesinrobotics/AV/EVtechnologiesprovidedeliveryedge.Theonlinepureplaysareclearlymoreagileandtech-adept.Butseveraltransformativeopportunitiescanbeunlockedbyofflinecompaniesinpartnershipwithtechtitansandstart-ups.Pureplaysstructuralwinners;transformationpotentialinothersEuropeanstockviews:OCDO:InitiateasOP;weseesignificantvalueinitssoftwarebusinessthatgoeswellbeyondretail.CAFP:ReiterateOPasourconfidenceinitspartnershipswithGoogle/Sapient/Tencentgrows.ZAL,ASCandITX:wereiterateOPasweseethemasstructuralwinners.ADNA:ReiterateUPandcutestimatesasonlineaccelerationintheUSincreasescompetitivepressures.Canadastockviews:WereiterateOPonEmpire.ItsexclusivepartnershipwithOcadoisdeliveringabest-in-classonlineplatformandProjectSunrisesavingswillsupportoutsizedearningsgrowth.OurDCFtargetof$29implies14-15xFY20EEPS.Australiastockviews:WOW:ReiterateUP.Wethinkitsvaluationistoohighat21xwithdownsiderisktocons.andslowingop.leverageinsupermarkets(70%ofEBIT).CCL:ReiterateUP.Expensivepostrecentrally.CDSbenefitstransitoryandIndonesiaistough.Onlinecutsstoretraffic,puttinghigh-marginimpulsesales(andprofits)atrisk.Chinastockviews:WereiterateOPonSunArtaswearemoreconvincedbynewretail.Alibaba-backedHemaFreshinitiatedthisanditisgrowingaggressivelywhilehelpingSunArtdigitizeitsstores.Thereisampleroomforgrowthinthe$660bnfreshgroceryO2Omarket,asmodernchannels/onlinemarketshareisonly22%/3%.10October20182IntroducingMacquarie’sDisruptiveEdgeAtMacquarie,westrivetouncoveropportunitiesothersmiss–disruptingourownthinkingandchallengingourclientstolookattheworldthroughadifferentlens.Ourequityresearchmodelfocusesondiscoveringthe“unknown,unknowns”–anditisthoseinsightsthatleadustobreakthroughinvestmentideasforourclients.OurAnalystsareempoweredtothinkdifferently,searchtheindustryandleverageourrealassetexperiencetoproviderealmarketinsightsintotheissuesandtrendsthatdrivecompanies,industriesandmarkets.WearepleasedtointroduceourDisruptiveEdge–andourreportonTheConciergeEconomy.TheConciergeEconomy:GoDigital,Jeeves!OurEuropeanDisruptiveTech&ConsumerteamexplorethechangingecommercelandscapewithTheConciergeEconomy:GoDigital,Jeeves!andviewtheinternetbuyingexperienceasripeforchange.Weseeecommerceevolvingtowarda“conciergeservice,”whereservicesarepersonalised,decisionmakingissimplified,executionisautomatedanddeliveryworry-free.Inarelatedreport,3DModel:Digital,Data&Delivery,weprovidei