82页麦格理2020全球经济与市场展望复苏之年20191118

SalesandTradingpersonnelatMacquariearenotindependentand,therefore,theinformationhereinmaybesubjecttocertainconflictsofinterest,andmayhavebeensharedwithotherpartiespriortopublication.Note:TotheextentMacquarieResearchisreferenced,itisidentifiedassuchandtheassociateddisclaimersareincludedinthepublishedresearchreport.Pleaserefertotheimportantdisclosures(Australia)[e-mail]2019drawstoaclose,themarketispricingeconomicrecovery,withequitiesintheUShittingnewhighsandlongyieldswellofftherecentlows.Notably,thisoptimismhasbrokenoutdespitethebalanceofevidencesuggestingthatglobalGDPgrowthisstillslowing,notwithstandingsometentative“greenshoots”inthemanufacturingsector.Inthenearterm,theexperiencelastyearsuggeststhattheSeptember2019tariffincreaseswillcontinuetoweighongrowth.Alongwiththepotentialforrenewedtradetensionsasnegotiationsmovetowardacrescendo,thiscouldseeriskassetscomeunderpressureforatime.However,lookinginto2020,weexpectamodestbutbroad-basedeconomicrecovery,whichshouldinturnsupportamaterialimprovementinglobalriskappetite,withequities,yieldsandindustrialcommoditiesallmovinghigher,asfearsofrecessionfade.Inthisworld,theUSdollarwouldbelikelytograduallydeflate,supportingtheexpectedEMrecovery.Whilethereboundiscurrentlymoreforecastthanreality,wefeelthatthecombinationofatrade“truce”,policystimulusintheUSandChina,thegeneralimprovementinmarketsentimentandthenormalinventorycyclewillbeenoughtobringthecurrent“slowdownscare”toanend–notingthatgrowthinQ4lookstobenearthelowpointofthe2012and2015minicycles.Unfortunately,thisoutlookispredicatedonthestrikingofthemuch-anticipatedtrade“truce”betweentheUSandChina.Whilewethinkadealislikely,giventheoverridingpoliticalimperativeinaUSPresidentialelectionyear,itisfarfromcertain.Andgiventhatglobalgrowthiscurrentlyapproachingstallspeed,afurtherescalationcouldseerecessiontalkreturntocentrestage.2020GlobalEconomicandMarketOutlook18November20192ContentsExecutivesummary:2020,theyearofrecovery3Topicalessays8Tradewar:Stateofplay9Dealingwiththenextdownturn:Policyoptions13Brexit:Stateofplay172020USPresidentialandCongressionalelections19HastradedivergencegivenrisetoinvestmentdivergenceinAsia?28Marketsoutlook31Globalinterestrateoutlook:2020upside,butstructurallystilllow32FXoutlook:PeakUSdollarhasarrived36Oilandnaturalgasoutlook:Alleyesondemand38Metalsandbulkcommoditiesoutlook:Industrialbears43Equityoutlook:Thebullmarketcontinues47Individualcountryeconomicoutlook49UnitedStates:Midyearimprovementondiminishingtraderisks50Canada:Slowergrowthahead54China:Gettingworsebeforegettingbetter58Eurozone:Modestrecovery,butno2017re-run62Japan:Inflationtargettoremainelusive65India:Stimulustosupportagradualrecovery68Australia:Gentlestofgentleturningpoints71NewZealand:Near-termdownside75Forecasttables78Economicandmarketforecasts79Commoditypriceforecasts81AuthorsMacquarieSecurities(Australia)[e-mail][e-mail],[e-mail][e-mail](Europe)[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail],[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail],[e-mail][e-mail]edLarryHu,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail]2020GlobalEconomicandMarketOutlook18November20193Executivesummary:2020,theyearofrecoveryStandingatthecrossroads2019hasbeenamost“dangerousyear”,withthetradeandtechnologyconflictbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinaneverfarfromtheheadlines.Thenewtariffshavehadamajorimpactonglobaltradeandindustrialproduction,withtheassociateduncertaintyalsoweighingonbusinessinvestment,whichisnowfallingmodestlyinthemajoreconomies.However,incontrast,consumptionhassofarremainedrelativelyresilient.Pullingthedivergenttrendstogether,aswegotoprint,globalGDPgrowthlookstobestillslowing,withgrowthlikelytoprintatalittlebelow2%saarinQ4,downfrom2¼%inQ3andnearthebottomoftherangeseeninthepast10years.This,alongwiththefactthattheFednowcastingmodelsareestimatingthatUSgrowthmomentumhasslowedt