互联网广告向核心媒体集中广告中间商尽享变革红利20190627兴业证券24页

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明海外研究行业深度研究报告证券研究报告＃industryId＃TMT＃investSuggestion＃推荐(＃investSuggestionChange＃维持）重点公司重点公司17A18A评级微盟0.001-1.59未评级兑吧0.09-0.25未评级万咖壹联-0.13-0.33未评级＃relatedReport＃相关报告海外研究＃emailAuthor＃分析师：张忆东[e-mail]：BIS749SAC：S0190510110012＃assAuthor＃联系人：安一夫[e-mail]：S0190517090002投资要点＃summary＃⚫互联网广告预算向核心龙头媒体集中。2018年20家中大型互联网公司广告收入增长1350亿元（YoY43%），其中腾讯、字节跳动、阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东5家合计增长1013亿元（YoY53%，占总增长额75%），其余15家公司仅增长28%——广告行业增量向少数龙头核心公司集中，造成多数公司增长乏力，使得市场对“互联网广告增速放缓”的认知比事实更悲观。我们认为，这一认知差造成市场低估了广告行业的结构性机会。⚫核心媒体具有“流量”“贴近变现”两个属性。1）流量洼地：腾讯和硬件入口仍有提升广告变现度的空间。除去抖音等流量快速增加的媒体，“龙头媒体优质流量尚未充分变现”的机会不应被忽视——腾讯广告占比与流量占比仍旧倒挂，预计“流量价值回归”会继续推动腾讯广告收入增长；“后流量时代”APP整体流量增长放缓、APP流量集中化明显使得手机硬件入口价值持续提升。2）贴近变现：泛电商广告是最有效的效果广告。包括电商广告和短视频/UP主视频广告在内的“泛电商广告”能直接带来销售，且销售转化效果更易量化，因此更受广告主青睐。⚫广告中间商享受核心媒体广告增长的红利。1）代理核心媒体广告，与巨头共成长：广告中间商能够成为核心媒体的重要代理商，就可以背靠龙头扩张自身业务规模；2）创新技术是广告中间商自己的核心竞争力：广告中间商拥有创新技术，特别是将广告与SaaS相结合，一方面可以把技术作为与核心媒体增强关系的方式，保证收入的可持续性；另一方面SaaS+广告的模式能提供给广告主更多附加值，以增加收费、提升毛利率。⚫投资建议：广告中间商更具业绩弹性。互联网广告预算向核心龙头媒体集中带来行业结构性机会，由于龙头互联网公司收入多元化，主要收入来源为广告的中间商业绩弹性更大，行业变化利好有两类优势的广告中间商：1）与广告收入快速增长的核心龙头媒体合作；2）拥有技术优势，特别是将SaaS与广告相结合。建议关注兑吧（1753.HK，借助SaaS入口，新型“互动广告”快速发展）、微盟集团（2013.HK，微信广告核心代理商，微信SaaS先行者）、万咖壹联（1762.HK，硬核联盟核心技术公司，SaaS支持广告快速变现）。风险提示：经济下行超预期，广告投放产生明显下滑；广告中间商SaaS成本投入过大而超过所带来的广告业务利润；行业政策风险；汇率风险。＃title＃互联网广告向核心媒体集中，广告中间商尽享变革红利＃createTime1＃2019年06月27日请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-海外行业深度研究报告Overweight（Maintained）TMTContactAnYifuSAC:[e-mail][e-mail]:S0190510110012SFC:BIS749TheInternetadvertisingbudgetisconcentratedinthecoreleadingmedia.In2018,theadvertisingrevenueof20mediumandlargeInternetcompaniesincreasedby135billionyuan(YoY43%),amongwhichthe75%increase(101.3billionyuan,YoY53%)wascontributedbythetop5companies,namedTencent,ByteDance,Alibaba,Pinduoduo,Jingdong,whiletheremaining15companiesonlygrewby28%.Theincreasingoftheadvertisingindustrytendstocentralizedwithinasmallnumberofleadingcompanies,resultinginthepoorgrowthofmostcompanies,whichmakesthemarketfeelmorepessimisticabouttheopinionthatthegrowthofInternetadvertisinghassloweddown,thantherealfacts.Webelievethatthiscognitivegaphascausedthemarkettounderestimatethestructuralopportunitiesoftheadvertisingindustry.Thecoremediahastwofeatures:“moretraffic”and“closetosales”.1)Cheaptraffic:TencentandmobilephonesstillhaslargepotentialitiestoincreaseAdincome.ExceptforthemediawithrapidincreaseintrafficsuchasDouyin,theopportunitythat“thehigh-qualitytrafficofleadingmediahasn’tbeenfullymonetized”shouldnotbeignored--Tencent’ssharesofadvertisingandtrafficstillhangedupsidedown,andweexpectedthat“thereturnoftrafficvalue”willcontinuetodriveTencent’sadvertisingrevenueup;Inthepost-trafficera,theslowdownoftheoverallApptrafficgrowthandtheconcentrationofApptraffichavesignificantlyincreasedthevalueofmobilephonehardwareentrances.2)Closetosales:Thegeneralizede-commerceadvertisingisthemosteffectiveinteractiveadvertising.GeneralizedAdvertising,includinge-commerceadsandshortvideo/UPloadervideoads,candirectlyboostsales,andthesalesconversioneffectismoreeasilyquantified,soitismorepopularwithadvertisers.AdvertisingagenciesbenefitfromthetrendthatInternetAdisconcentratedincoremedia1)Adagenciesgrowtogetherwiththecoremedia.ifanadvertisingagencybecomesoneoftheimportantagenciesofcoremedia,itcanrelyonthecoremediatoexpanditsbusinessscale;2)Theinnovativetechnologyisthecorecompetitivenessofadvertisingagencies.ifAdagencieshaveinnovativetechnologies,especiallycombiningadvertisingwithSaaS,theycanensurerevenuesustainabilitysincetechnologycanbeusedasatooltoenhancerelationshipswithcoremedia.And‘SaaS+Advertising’canprovideadanencieswithadditionalValue,foritcanincreasetheirgrossprofitbyincreasingadfees.Recommendations:TheincomeperformanceofAdagenciesismoreflexiblethanmedia.Theconcentrationofinternetadvertisingbudgetonthecoreleadingmediabringsstructuralopportunitiestotheadvertisingindustry.DuetothediversifiedrevenueofleadingInternetcompanies,theagenciesofwhoseincomemainlycomesfromadvertisinghasgreaterperformanceflexibility.Theindustrychangesfavortwotypesofadvertisingmiddlemen:1)theoneswhocooperatewithcoreleadingmediawithrapidgrowthinadvertisingrevenue;2)theoneswhohavetechnologicaladvantages,especiallycombiningSaaSwithadvertising.ItisrecommendedtopayattentiontoDuiba(1753.HK,withthehelpoftheSaaSportal,itsnewinteractiveadvertisinggrowrapidly),Weimob(2013.HK,WeChatadvertisingcoreagent,WeChatSaaSpioneer),WankaOnline(1762.HK,thecoretechnologycompanyofthemobilehardcoreallianceandSaaSsupportstherapidmonetizationofadvertising).Potentialrisks:1)unexpectedeconomicdownturndroppingtheadvertisingrevenuesignificantly;2)theSaaScostofadvertisingagenciesistoolargetoexceedtheadvertisingprofit;3)industrypolicyrisk;4)exchangerateriskAdvertisingagenciesbenefitfromthetrendthatInternetAdisconcentratedincoremedia06/27/2019请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-海外行业深度研究报告目录1.互联网广告预算向核心龙头媒体集中....................................................-4-2.核心媒体具有“流量”“贴近变现”两个属性.............................................-9-2.1.流量洼地：腾讯和硬件入口仍有提升广告变现度的空间..