NRDC中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析2019642页

201906中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析ANALYSISONTHEHEALTHBENEFITFROMANOILCAPINCHINA油控研究项目真实成本课题组执行报告EXECUTIVEREPORT本课题属于中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究项目（下文简称‘油控研究项目’）子课题之一。中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究项目(油控研究项目)中国是世界第二大石油消费国和第一大石油进口国。石油是中国社会经济发展的重要动力，但石油的生产和消费对生态环境造成了严重破坏；同时，石油对外依存度上升也威胁着中国的能源供应安全。为应对气候变化和减少环境污染，自然资源保护协会（NRDC）和能源基金会中国（EFChina）作为协调单位，与国内外政府研究智库、科研院所和行业协会等十余家有影响力的单位合作，于2018年1月共同启动了“中国石油消费总量控制和政策研究”项目（简称油控研究项目），促进石油资源安全、高效、绿色、低碳的可持续开发和利用，助力中国跨越“石油时代”，早日进入新能源时代，为保障能源安全、节约资源、保护环境和公众健康以及应对气候变化等多重目标做出贡献。自然资源保护协会（NRDC）是一家国际非盈利非政府环保机构，拥有逾140万会员及支持者。自1970年成立以来，以环境律师、科学家及环保专家为主力的NRDC员工们一直为保护自然资源、公共健康及环境而进行不懈努力。NRDC在美国、中国、加拿大、墨西哥、治理、哥斯达黎加、欧盟、印度等国家及地区开展工作。请登录网站了解更多详情。系列报告《石油开采利用的水资源外部成本研究》《中国石油真实成本研究》《中国传统燃油汽车退出时间表研究》3中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析油控研究项目系列报告中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析ANALYSISONTHEHEALTHBENEFITFROMANOILCAPINCHINA执行报告EXECUTIVEREPORT主要作者潘小川武子婷王战油控研究项目真实成本课题组2019年06月油控研究项目系列报告4目录ExecutiveSummary5专业术语表7前言81.石油相关污染对人群健康的危害91.1石油相关大气污染的健康危害1.2石油相关水污染的健康危害1.3塑料污染的健康危害2.石油相关大气污染的健康成本核算182.1核算方法2.2量化分析2.3不确定性分析3.结论及展望323.1主要结论3.2政策建议3.3展望参考文献365中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析ExecutiveSummaryBackgroundsPetroleumisanindispensablerawmaterialandabasicformofenergyinChina.Ithasanimportantstrategicpositionwithinthenationaleconomyandiscloselyrelatedtoindustrialdevelopmentanddailylife.WiththeadvancementofindustrializationandtheimprovementofChina’senergystructure,totalpetroleumconsumptioncontinuestorise.Theimpactofpetroleumextraction,refiningandconsumptionontheecologicalenvironmentandpublichealthcannotbeunderestimated.Somepreviousstudieshaveshowedthattheextraction,refiningandconsumptionofpetroleumcouldreleasealargenumberofharmfulpollutantsintotheatmosphere,freshwaterbodiesandoceans,endangeringthelivesandhealthofthepublic.However,fewstudieshavecomprehensivelyevaluatedthehealthhazardscausedbythepetroleumindustrychain,andthereisalackofdataoneconomiclossescausedbypetroleum-relatedpollution.Whatarethehealthimpactsandeconomiclossescausedbypetroleum-relatedpollution?Thishasbecomeacentralquestionthattherelevantdepartmentsurgentlyneedtoaddress.Basedontheaboveinformation,thisstudychose2015asthebaselineyearfromwhichtoevaluatethehealthimpactsandeconomiclossesofpetroleum-relatedpollutionqualitativelyandquantitatively,andtoprovidescientificreferenceforformulatingthenationaltotalpetroleumconsumptioncontrolpolicy.MethodsInthisstudy,wesummarizedthehealthhazardsofpetroleum-relatedair,waterandplasticpollutiontopublichealth,andquantitativelyevaluatedthehealthcostsofpetroleum-relatedairpollution.Inthefirstpart,wegatheredtheextensiveliteratureonpetroleum-relatedairpollution,waterpollutionandplasticpollution,withafocusonthehealthimpactsofpetroleum-relatedpollution.Wethenconductedaliteraturereviewtosummarizethehealthhazardscausedbypetroleumextraction,refining,manufactureandconsumption.Inthelatterpart,wecollectedairpollutiondata,healthoutcomedata,pollutantapportionmentdataandstatisticallifevaluefor31provincesand74citiesinChina.Afterintegrationexposure-reaction(IER)modelingandexcessivemortalitycalculation,油控研究项目系列报告6weevaluatedthe2015healthcostsofpetroleum-relatedairpollutionin31provincesand74cities.ResultsTheliteraturereviewshowedthatpetroleumextraction,refining,manufactureandconsumptioncouldleadtoseriousairpollution,waterpollutionandplasticpollution,endangeringtherespiratory,cardiovascular,endocrineandnervoussystemsoftheexposedpopulation.Inaddition,somecarcinogenicpollutantscouldsignificantlyincreasetheriskofcancer.Ourresultsshowedthatin2015,thenumberofexcessdeathsduetopetroleum-relatedairpollutionin31provinceswas195thousandandtherelatedeconomiclosseswere150.68(95%CI:98.31,229.19)billionyuan.Thehealthcostsperunitofpetroleumconsumptionwas278.6yuan/ton.In74representativecities,thehealthcostsofpetroleum-relatedairpollutionwere88.89(95%CI:57.97,135.16)billionyuan,andtheeconomiclossesofBeijing-Tianjin-HebeiRegion,YangtzeRiverDeltaRegionandPearlRiverDeltasRegionaccountedfor64.6%ofthetotaleconomiclossesin74cities.Uncertainanalysis1.Atpresent,thereisnostandardvalueforVSLinChina.Whencalculatingthehealthcostsofpetroleum-relatedconsumption,differentparameterscancausetheresultsofthestudytodiffersignificantly.2.Forthelimitedconditionsofdata,theairpollutiondatainourstudywasbasedonthenationalenvironmentalmonitoringsitesanddidnotutilizeindividualexposureassessment.3.Duetothelimitationofdataconditions,ourstudyfailedtoquantitativelyevaluatethehealthcostofpetroleum-relatedwaterandplasticpollutionandunderestimatedtherealhealthcostsofpetroleum.ConclusionPollutantsdischargedfrompetroleumextraction,refiningandconsumptionprocesseshavesignificanthealthimpactsontheexposedpopulation,creatingaheavyburdenofhealthproblemsandeconomiclosses.Therelevantgovernmentdepartmentsshouldformulatepoliciestocontrolthetotalconsumptionofpetroleum,focusingonstrengtheningthepreventionandcontrolofpetrochemicalandvehiclepollutionineconomicallydevelopedareas,soastominimizethehealthcostforthepublicduetopetroleum-relatedpollution.7中国石油消费总量控制的健康效应分析专业术语表英文缩写及英文名称中文名称术语解释OR(OddsRatio)比值比、优势比病例组中暴露人数与非暴露人数的比值除以对照组中暴露人数与非暴露人数的比值。反映暴露对发病（死亡）是保护因素/有害因素/无作