巴克莱美股医疗保健行业2019年2月巴克莱生命科学与诊断工具产业追踪全球PMIs显示了温和的未来20

EquityResearch1March2019COREBarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.PLEASESEEANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE18.Restricted-InternalU.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsBarclaysToolsIndustrialTracker–February2019:GlobalPMIsShowFurtherModerationGeographicPMIsmostlyshowedcontinuedmoderationinFebruary,withChinaasthelonebrightspot.AfterreboundinginJanuary,theU.S.ISMmanufacturingPMIfellto54.2(down2.4m/m).AsanimportantregionforourLifeScienceToolscoverage,wewereencouragedtoseeanimprovementinChina(49.9,up1.6m/m),withtheregionnowhoveringontheexpansionary/contractionaryborder(at50.0).BeyondtheU.S.andChina,Europe,theU.K.,andJapanallpostedrelativemoderationforthemonth.AsPMIsmoderate,webelievefuturePMItrendswillbeimportanttowatchforareadintotrendsfurtherinto2019,servingasa1-2quarterleadingindicator.TheindustrialendmarketrepresentsanimportantsetofcustomersforourLifeScienceToolscoverage,makingupanywherefrom10-25%ofrevenuesforthediversifiedcompanies.WecontinuetofavorAgilentandThermoFisherinourLifeScienceToolscoveragewithOverweightratings.Asareminder,revenuegenerationfortheLifeScienceToolscompaniesishighlycorrelatedwithendmarketgrowthinthecompany’sindividualgeographies.Thelatestreadingssuggest:USCompositePMIfromISMof54.2forFebruary2019,down-2.4m/mEuropeManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof49.3forFebruary2019,down-1.2m/mUKManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof52.0forFebruary2019,down-0.6m/mGermanyManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof47.6forFebruary2019,down-2.1m/mJapanManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof50.3forFebruary2019,down-1.4m/mChinaManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof49.9forFebruary2019,up1.6m/mWealsotrackcapitalspendinglevelsatchemicalandenergycompanies,oilprices,andrigcountstogaugethehealthoftheindustrialendmarket.Whilerecentmacroheadlineshavebeenchoppier,webelievevisibilityisgoodfornear-termtrendsintheindustrialendmarketgrowth.Followingthecompletionof4Q18earnings,CapExfromE&Pcompaniesisexpectedtodeclineby10%in2019,lowerthanourtracker’spreviousforecast,whichwebelievereflectsnewassumptionsaroundthelowerpriceofoil.E&Pspendingcanbeviewedasaleadingindicationfordownstreamspending.Whileinternationalrigcountscontinuetoshowyear-over-yearimprovements,recentweaknessinthepriceofoilwillbesomethingtomonitor.INDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsNEUTRALUnchangedU.S.LifeScienceTools&DiagnosticsJackMeehan,[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],USBarclays|U.S.LifeScienceTools&Diagnostics1March20192BarclaysToolsIndustrialTracker–GeographicPMIsFebruary2019UpdateGeographicPMIsmostlyshowedcontinuedmoderationinFebruary,withChinaasthelonebrightspot.AfterreboundinginJanuary,theU.S.ISMmanufacturingPMIfellto54.2(down2.4m/m).AsanimportantregionforourLifeScienceToolscoverage,wewereencouragedtoseeanimprovementinChina(49.9,up1.6m/m),withtheregionnowhoveringontheexpansionary/contractionaryborder(at50.0).BeyondtheU.S.andChina,Europe,theU.K.,andJapanallpostedrelativemoderationforthemonth.AsPMIsmoderate,webelievefuturePMItrendswillbeimportanttowatchforareadintotrendsfurtherinto2019,servingasa1-2quarterleadingindicator.TheindustrialendmarketrepresentsanimportantsetofcustomersforourLifeScienceToolscoverage,makingupanywherefrom10-25%ofrevenuesforthediversifiedcompanies.WecontinuetofavorAgilentandThermoFisherinourLifeScienceToolscoveragewithOverweightratings.Asareminder,revenuegenerationfortheLifeScienceToolscompaniesishighlycorrelatedwithendmarketgrowthinthecompany’sindividualgeographies.Thelatestreadingssuggest:USCompositePMIfromISMof54.2forFebruary2019,down-2.4m/mEuropeManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof49.3forFebruary2019,down-1.2m/mUKManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof52.0forFebruary2019,down-0.6m/mGermanyManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof47.6forFebruary2019,down-2.1m/mJapanManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof50.3forFebruary2019,down-1.4m/mChinaManufacturingPMIfromMarkitof49.9forFebruary2019,up1.6m/mTohelpinvestorsgaugeendmarketactivity,wehavedevelopedtheBarclaysPMITrackers.Thetrackersrepresentaweighted-averageofgrowthinAgilent,MettlerToledo,PerkinElmer,ThermoFisher,andWaters’underlyinggeographiesusingPMIdatafromISMistheUnitedStatesandMarkitinternationally.Onaone-quarterlag,theBarclaysAgilent,MettlerToledo,PerkinElmer,ThermoFisher,andWatersPMITrackershavea65%,61%,61%,50%,and36%correlationwithorganicgrowthinthefollowingquarter,respectively.TheBarclaysAgilentPMITrackerforFY2Q19registersat51.5(down1.6q/q).TheBarclaysMettlerToledoPMITrackerfor1Q19registersat51.8(down1.6q/q).TheBarclaysPerkinElmerPMITrackerfor1Q19registersat51.5(down1.7q/q).TheBarclaysThermoFisherPMITrackerfor1Q19registersat52.3(down1.9q/q).TheBarclaysWatersPMITrackerfor1Q19registersat51.9(down1.6q/q).Pleasereachouttousifyouwouldlikea