瑞银亚洲地区科技硬件与设备行业科技硬件与半导体从中国迁出会成为一种趋势吗201921434页

GlobalResearch14February2019UBSGlobalI/OTechHardware&SemiUBSEvidenceLabinside:willmovingfromChinabecomeatrendandhowmuchcoulditcost?Aneedfordiversification,butatwhatcost?BasedonUBSEvidenceLab'sCFOsurveyofNorthAsiaexporters,46%ofrespondentshavealready/aremovingproductionoutofChina,while36%plantomoveinthenearfuture.IfUS-Chinatradetensionsleadtoacceleratingshiftinproduction,webelieveitwouldbenegativeforcompanieswithhighproductionconcentrationinChina(HonHai,Pegatron,Wistron).Wethinkcompanieswithtechnologyadvantagesordiversifiedproductionaremoreimmune(TSMC,Largan,Delta),buttheymaybeaffectedbylowerdemand.WeviewSamsungElectronicsasabeneficiaryofproductiontransferdemand.WebelievethemarkethaspartiallypricedinthepotentialriskswithhigherimpactedcompaniestradingatthelowerendsoftheirhistoricalPEbands.CostanalysisofcapacityrelocationBasedonourcostanalysisofAsiatechcompanies,weestimatetheearningsimpactofa20%relocationofcapacitytoexistinghubsat10%/6%forassembly/componentcompanies.Forrelocationtoalternativesiteswithalimitedclustereffect,weestimateanearningsimpactof18%/12%forassembly/componentcompanies.Forearnings,webelievethemarkethasnotfullypricedinthepotentialimpactofcosts,basedonthepauseinnewtariffsimposedbytheUSonChinaandasconsumerelectronicsarenotyetonthetarifflist.Mostcompaniesalsohavenotyetmadefirmcommitmentsregardingashiftincapacity.LongerbuildcyclefromproductionsitedispersionWebelievetheneedfordiversificationwillleadtoafundamentalshiftinthestructureofthesupplychainoverthelongerterm.Insteadofproductioninconcentratedclusters,weexpectagreaterdispersionofproductionsitesacrossthesupplychain.Webelievethiswillleadtoalongerbuildcycleandgreaterswingsintheinventorycycle.Astheeffectislongerterm,webelievethishasnotbeenpricedin.PotentialimpactonenddemandIntermsofdemandimpact,webelievecompanieswillseektopassonpartoftheincreaseincosttoendcustomers.Basedonourdemandanalysisoftransferordersandalongerreplacementcycle,weestimatea-5.5%impactonUSdemandanda-0.5%impactonglobaldemandforsmartphones,anda-3.7%impactonUSdemandanda-0.9%impactonglobaldemandforPCs.WebelievethemarkethaspartiallypricedinthepotentialimpactonenddemandfromariseinUS-Chinatradetensions.UBS'sglobalforecastforhandsetshipmentsis-2.1%YoYfor2019.PotentialimpactonselectAsiatechcompaniesRatingShareprice(LC)PricetargetRatingShareprice(LC)PricetargetHigherimpactedcompaniesLowerimpactedcompaniesWistronSell21.1516.00TSMCBuy229.00285HonHaiNeutral72.0079.00DeltaElectronicsBuy153.50175PegatronNeutral50.7049.50LarganNeutral3,990.003,200MediumimpactedcompaniesPotentialbeneficiariesCatcherBuy235.00375.00SamsungElectronicsBuy46,20051,000TripodBuy83.80116.00Pricesasof13February2019.Source:UBSestimatesEquitiesAsiaTechnologyHardware&[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]JohnRoy,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]UBSGlobalI/O:TechHardware&Semi14February20192UBSGlobalI/O:TechHardwareP2UBSResearchTHESISMAPaguidetoourthinkingandwhat'swhereinthisreportMOSTFAVOUREDLEASTFAVOUREDTSMC,SamsungElectronics,Delta,LarganHonHai,Pegatron,WistronPIVOTALQUESTIONSQ:Willfactoryrelocationleadtoanearningsimpactofover10%forsupplychaincompanies?Yes,thecostsoffactoryrelocationfromChinacouldimpactearningsbyover10%.WhilelabourcostswouldbelowerincountriessuchasVietnamandIndia,initialset-upcostscombinedwiththeneedtomaintainduplicatecapacityduringthetransferprocesscouldleadtohighercosts.Duetotheneedfordiversification,webelievegreaterdispersionofproductionsiteswillleadtoashiftinthesupplychainstructurewithwiderswingsintheinventorycycle.moreQ:Willtechdemandbeimpactedbyhigherendmarketprices?Yes,ifhighertariffrateswereimplementedorifproductioncostsroseduetofactoryrelocation,webelievesupplychaincompanieswillseektopassonpartoftheincreasetoendcustomers.Basedonourdemandanalysisoftransferordersandlongerreplacementcycles,weestimatea-5.5%impactonUSdemandanda-0.5%impactonglobaldemandforsmartphones,anda-3.7%impactonUSdemandanda-0.9%impactonglobaldemandforPCs.moreUBSVIEWNegativeforsupplychaincompanieswithhighconcentrationinChina.WhetherduetotariffsorrisinglabourcostsinChin