瑞银全球科技硬件与设备行业科技硬件不仅仅是第19届世界移动通信大会的5G201922838页

GlobalResearch28February2019UBSGlobalI/OTechnologyHardwareMorethanjust5GfromMobileWorldCongress'19Wespentfourdaysinc35meetingsacrossthetechhardwaresupplychainWeattendedMWC2019,attendingc35meetingswithcompaniesfromacrosstheTechHardwaresupplychain.Wesummarisebelowour10highlights.With2018havingbeenthefirstyearrealproofpointson5Ghittingthemarket,2019wastheevolutionawayfromselectgeographiestomoreglobaladoptionandrealsmart-phonelaunches(5)thatwillsupport5Gandinnovationintheformoffoldabledevices.Keytakeaways1-4:policytension,5Gandvendormarketshare1)TheUS-ChinapolicytensionwasthebackdroptoMWCwithHuawei'sChairmanstatingduringkeynotethatHuaweihasnotandwillneverplantbackdoors.2)NokiaandEricssonbothstatedtheydidn'twanttocommentonthepoliticaldiscussionofwhichvendorsareallowedin5Gnetworksbutequallyspentmuchtimefocusingon'security'intheirpressconferences.3)5Gdeploymentscontinuetogathersteambutwehaveyettoseemuchtoconvinceusthatthiswillbesignificantlydifferenttothe4Ginvestmentcycle(initialbumpandthenareturntothenorm)-thoughprivatenetworkdeploymentsweremoreinfocuswhichcouldhelp.4)Therewerenumerouscontractannouncementsbutinourviewnothingtobelieveinsignificantmarketshareshifts.Keytakeaways5-10:Semis,Foldable,OLED,componentshiftsandmemory5)Semis-MediaTek,QCOMandSamsungtouted5GreadychipsbutIntelrelativelyquietandUBSremainsconcernedits5Groadmapwillnotbetherefor2020.InthewideranalogspaceSTM/IFXsawitastooearlytojudgedemandpostCNY-InfineondidsaythatPMMbook-to-billhadstabilisedinFebthoughwewouldn'treadmuchintothis(billingslikelyweak).6)Foldabledevicesfinallycamethrough,withbothSamsungandHuaweishowcasingcompetingconcepts(invsoutfoldingwhichwethinkAppleispursuing);thejuryisstilloutontheuserexperience,butthisisafirststep.7)OLEDpenetrationofsmartphonesalsosteppedupwiththeMi9adoption(webelieveSamsungmainsupplier)andweexpectHuaweitoalsoincreaseOLEDpenetration.8)Triplecamadoptionisaccelerating.9)UnderglassfingerprintisgettingsignificanttractionandputsaquestionmarkonAndroid3Dsensingfacialrecognitionadoption.10)Memorycontentcontinuestomovehigherforhigherendsmartphones,althoughweremainconcernedaboutthenegativeimpactofmixshift.EquitiesGlobalTechnologyHardware&EquipmentDavidMulholland,[e-mail]+4[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]JohnRoy,[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]ShingoHirata,[e-mail][phone]UBSGlobalI/O:TechnologyHardware28February2019210highlightsfromMWC'19WeattendedMWC2019,attendingc35meetingswithmeetingsfromacrosstheTechHardwarespace.Weincludebelowour10highlightsfromtheeventbeforediggingintoeachsub-sectorinmoredetailandthenwealsoprovidemorespecificcompanyfeedbacklaterinthenote.1)US-ChinapolicytensionwasthebackdroptoMWCwithHuawei'sChairmanstatingduringkeynotethatHuaweihasnotandwillneverplantbackdoors.2)NokiaandEricssonbothstatedtheydidn'twanttocommentonthepoliticaldiscussionofwhichvendorsareallowedin5Gnetworksbutequallyspentmuchtimefocusingon'security'intheirownpressconferences.3)5Gdeploymentscontinuetogathersteambutwehaveyettoseemuchtoconvinceusthatthiswillbesignificantlydifferenttothe4Ginvestmentcycle(initialbumpandthenareturntothenorm)-thoughprivatenetworkdeploymentsweremoreinfocuswhichcouldhelp.4)Therewerenumerousvendor-telco5Gcontractannouncementsbutinourviewnothingtobelieveinsignificantmarketshareshifts.OnethatstoodoutwasOonedoosigningwithEricssonfora5GnetworkinQatar(1,200basestations)havingpreviouslysignedwithNokiain2018.WenotethattheEricssoncontractisnarrowerinitsscopethantheNokiacontractwasandwewouldn'treadtoomuchintoitbutthisdoesappeartobeaswapout.Overallwhenitcomestotelecomequipment-wemaintainourpreferenceforNokia.Whiletheremaybesomemarginalshareshiftshort-termweseeitasunlikelythatmarketsharewillshiftdramaticallytothedetrimentofNokiain5G(itisnotinthetelco'sinterest)andthevaluationremainsmuchmorecompellingthanEricssoninourview(14xvs.18xP/E'20E).5)Semis-Qualcomm,Samsung,andMediaTekalltouting5Greadychips,butIntelrelativelyquiet.Ofthethree,QualcommandSamsungarereadywithmmWave,MediaTekissub-6only.Besidestechnologyreadiness,highpriceof5Gchipswasalsotopical.InthewideranalogspaceSTM/IFXsawitastooearlytojudgedem