Making Decision

2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-111MakingDecision1Conceptofdecision2Rationalityandboundedrationality3Typesofdecision4Decisionmakingsteps2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-2ManagerialDecisionMakingDecisionmaking:theprocessbywhichmanagersrespondtoopportunitiesandthreatsbyanalyzingoptions,andmakingdecisionsaboutgoalsandcoursesofaction.2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-3Decisionsinresponsetoopportunities:managersrespondtowaystoimproveorganizationalperformance.Decisionsinresponsetothreats:occurswhenmanagersareimpactedbyadverseeventstotheorganization.2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-4Rationaldecision-TheClassicalModelListalternatives&consequencesRankeachalternativefromlowtohighSelectbestalternativeAssumesallinformationisavailabletomanagerAssumesmanagercanprocessinformationAssumesmanagerknowsthebestfuturecourseoftheorganizationUnfortunately,mangersoftendonothaveall(orevenmost)requiredinformation2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-5BoundedrationaldecisionAdministrativeModelofdecisionmaking:Challengedtheclassicalassumptionsthatmanagershaveandprocessalltheinformation.Asaresult,decisionmakingisrisky.Boundedrationality:Thereisalargenumberofalternativesandinformationisvastsothatmanagerscannotconsideritall.Decisionsarelimitedbypeople’scognitiveabilities.2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-6InformationisIncompleteUncertainty&riskAmbiguousInformationTimeconstraints&informationcostsIncompleteInformationIncompleteinformation:mostmanagersdonotseeallalternativesanddecidebasedonincompleteinformation.2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-7DecisionMakingStepsRecognizeneedforadecisionFrametheproblemGenerate&assessalternativesChooseamongalternativesImplementchosenalternativeLearnfromfeedbackFigure6.42000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-8DecisionMakingSteps1.Recognizeneedforadecision:Managersmustfirstrealizethatadecisionmustbemade.Beginadecisionneedtwoconditions:Condition1:findagapbetweenaimnpresentperformance.Orenvironmentchanges.Condition2:necessaryresource.Asauthority,found,information,humanresource2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-9AdecisionmakingofanewcarOnecarofafactorywasbroken,itbringssometroubletothedailybusiness,andtherestillissurplusincomeoflastyear.BuyanewcarBuyasecond-handcar*RepairthebrokencarRentacar2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-10Managersmustdevelopfeasiblealternativecoursesofaction.Acura;Chevrolet;Honda;Hyundai;Mazda;Nissan;Plymouth;Pontiac;ToyotaCamry;VolkswagenPassat;Volvo.2Generatealternatives2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-11Theadvantages&disadvantagesofeachalternativeSpecifycriteria(standard)AllocationofweightstocriteriaAnalysisofalternatives.3.EvaluatealternativesCriteriaWeightPrice10Comfort8Durable5Repairrecord5Function3Easytodrive12000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-12AlternativesPriCoDuReFuDrtotalAcura561010710229Chevrolet785647208Hondaaccord58101077242Hyundai775477199Mazda757747199Nissan857977218Plymouth1073335200Pontiac410551010210Toyotacamry67101077244Volkswagenpassat4754108179Volvo27109451882000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-13Managersrankalternativesanddecide——ToyotaCamry5.ImplementchoosealternativeManagersmustnowcarryoutthealternative.6.Learnfromfeedbackmanagersshouldconsiderwhatwentrightandwrongwiththedecisionandlearnforthefuture.4.Chooseamongalternatives2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-14Structureofdecision:TechniqueofdecisionGroupofdecisionTypesofDecision2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-15StructureofDecisionProgrammedDecisions:routine,almostautomaticprocess.Managershavemadedecisionmanytimesbefore.Therearerulesorguidelinestofollow.Example:Decidingtoreorderofficesupplies.Non-programmedDecisions:unusualsituationsthathavenotbeenoftenaddressed.Norulestofollowsincethedecisionisnew.Thesedecisionsaremadebasedoninformation,andamanger’sintuition,andjudgment.Example:Shouldthefirminvestinanewtechnology?2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-16TechniqueofDecisionCertaintyAnalysis:Asituationinwhichamanagercanmakeaccuratedecisionsbecausetheoutcomeofeveryalternativeisknown.RiskAnalysis:Thoseconditionsinwhichthedecisionmakerisabletoestimatetheprobabilityofcertainoutcomes.UncertaintyAnalysis:Asituationinwhichadecisionmakerhasneithercertaintynorreasonableprobabilityestimatesavailable.2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-17CertaintyAnalysisBreakevenAnalysis:atechniqueforidentifyingthepointatwhichtotalrevenueisjustsufficienttocovertotalcost.Linearprogramming:amathematicaltechniquethatsolvesresourceallocationproblems.2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-18盈亏平衡分析Break-evenanalysisCQ0CSF固定成本V变动成本S销售收入2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-19计算公式CPFX0X0：盈亏平衡产量P：单位产品价格F：固定成本C：单位产品成本TR：目标利润CPFTRX2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-20盈亏平衡实例：假定戴夫复印机服务公司规定，每复印一张纸１０美分，如果固定成本为每年２７０００美元，可变成本每张４美分。？求盈亏平衡点？若要求年销售收入达到９００００美元，应达到多少服务量？（1美元=10美分）/2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-21盈亏平衡在实际生活中的应用作用：用于确定目标收入产量;确定无亏产品产量实际生活中的例子――影剧院的娱乐业的票房销售最低限;据平衡点数值（最基本利润值）选择最佳（预达利润数值）方案/2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-22线性规划Linearprogramming当决策变量为可控变量，且取值是连续的，目标函数和约束条件都线性时，称模型是线性规划规划问题的数学模型包含三个组成要素决策变量目标函数约束条件/2000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-23线性规划实例某工厂生产两种手枪，左轮手枪R，半自动手枪S，具体情况如下：部门单位产品所需工时月生产能力左轮手枪R半自动手枪S（小时）制造241200装配22900每单位利润1001802000-1王青-管理学院-上海交通大学9-24线性规划数解步骤建立目标函数和约束方程最大化利润=100R+180S2R+4S=1200（月制造生产能力约束）2R+2S=900（月装配生产能力约束）求解：R=300;S=150;最大化利润=75000部门每单位产品所需工时月生产能力左轮手枪R半自动手枪S（小时）