管理学课件第6章制定决策管理者工作的本质(Decision-

6–1Chapter6•Decision-Making:TheEssenceoftheManager’sJob(制定决策：管理者工作的本质)6–2DecisionMaking•Decision(定义)Makingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.•TheDecision-MakingProcess(决策过程)Identifyingaproblemanddecisioncriteriaandallocatingweightstothecriteria.Developing,analyzing,andselectinganalternativethatcanresolvetheproblem.Implementingtheselectedalternative.Evaluatingthedecision’seffectiveness.6–3Exhibit6–1TheDecision-MakingProcess6–4Step1:IdentifyingtheProblem•ProblemAdiscrepancybetweenanexistinganddesiredstateofaffairs.•CharacteristicsofProblemsAproblembecomesaproblemwhenamanagerbecomesawareofit.Thereispressuretosolvetheproblem.Themanagermusthavetheauthority,information,orresourcesneededtosolvetheproblem.6–5Step2:IdentifyingDecisionCriteria•Decisioncriteriaarefactorsthatareimportant(relevant)toresolvingtheproblem.Coststhatwillbeincurred(investmentsrequired)Riskslikelytobeencountered(chanceoffailure)Outcomesthataredesired(growthofthefirm)Step3:AllocatingWeightstotheCriteria•Decisioncriteriaarenotofequalimportance:Assigningaweighttoeachitemplacestheitemsinthecorrectpriorityorderoftheirimportanceinthedecisionmakingprocess.6–6Exhibit6–2CriteriaandWeightsforComputerReplacementDecisionCriterionWeightMemoryandStorage10Batterylife8CarryingWeight6Warranty4DisplayQuality36–7Step4:DevelopingAlternatives•IdentifyingviablealternativesAlternativesarelisted(withoutevaluation)thatcanresolvetheproblem.Step5:AnalyzingAlternatives•Appraisingeachalternative’sstrengthsandweaknessesAnalternative’sappraisalisbasedonitsabilitytoresolvetheissuesidentifiedinsteps2and3.6–8Exhibit6–3AssessedValuesofLaptopComputersUsingDecisionCriteria6–9Step6:SelectinganAlternative•ChoosingthebestalternativeThealternativewiththehighesttotalweightischosen.Step7:ImplementingtheAlternative•Puttingthechosenalternativeintoaction.Conveyingthedecisiontoandgainingcommitmentfromthosewhowillcarryoutthedecision.6–10Exhibit6–4EvaluationofLaptopAlternativesAgainstWeightedCriteria6–11Step8:EvaluatingtheDecision’sEffectiveness•Thesoundnessofthedecisionisjudgedbyitsoutcomes.Howeffectivelywastheproblemresolvedbyoutcomesresultingfromthechosenalternatives?Iftheproblemwasnotresolved,whatwentwrong?6–12Exhibit6–5DecisionsintheManagementFunctions6–13MakingDecisions•Rationality（理性）Managersmakeconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithspecifiedconstraints.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:Areperfectlyrational,fullyobjective,andlogical.Havecarefullydefinedtheproblemandidentifiedallviablealternatives.HaveaclearandspecificgoalWillselectthealternativethatmaximizesoutcomesintheorganization’sinterestsratherthanintheirpersonalinterests.6–14Exhibit6–6AssumptionsofRationality6–15MakingDecisions(cont’d)•BoundedRationality（有限理性）Managersmakedecisionsrationally,butarelimited(bounded)bytheirabilitytoprocessinformation.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisfice—choosethefirstalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblem—ratherthanmaximizetheoutcomeoftheirdecisionbyconsideringallalternativesandchoosingthebest.InfluenceondecisionmakingEscalationofcommitment(承诺升级):anincreasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong.6–16TheRoleofIntuition（直觉的作用）•Intuitivedecisionmaking（直觉决策）Makingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,feelings,andaccumulatedjudgment.6–17Exhibit6–7WhatisIntuition?Source:BasedonL.A.BurkeandM.K.Miller,“TakingtheMysteryOutofIntuitiveDecisionMaking,”AcademyofManagementExecutive,October1999,pp.91–99.6–18TypesofProblemsandDecisions•StructuredProblems（结构良好的问题）Involvegoalsthatclear.Arefamiliar(haveoccurredbefore).Areeasilyandcompletelydefined—informationabouttheproblemisavailableandcomplete.•ProgrammedDecision（程序化决策）Arepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.6–19TypesofProgrammedDecisions•PolicyAgeneralguidelineformakingadecisionaboutastructuredproblem.•ProcedureAseriesofinterrelatedstepsthatamanagercanusetorespond(applyingapolicy)toastructuredproblem.•RuleAnexplicitstatementthatlimitswhatamanageroremployeecanorcannotdo.6–20Policy,Procedure,andRuleExamples•PolicyAcceptallcustomer-returnedmerchandise.•ProcedureFollowallstepsforcompletingmerchandisereturndocumentation.•RulesManagersmustapproveallrefundsover$50.00.Nocreditpurchasesarerefundedforcash.6–21ProblemsandDecisions(cont’d)•UnstructuredProblems（结构不良的问题）Problemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.Problemsthatwillrequirecustom-madesolutions.•NonprogrammedDecisions（非程序化决策）Decisionsthatareuniqueandnonrecurring.Decisionsthatgenerateuniqueresponses.6–22问题类型、决策类型和组织层次程序化决策非程序化决策组织层次顶层底层结构良好的结构不良的问题类型©PrenticeHall,20026-226–23Exhibit6–8ProgrammedversusNonprogrammedDecisions6–241、个体决策2、群体决策相对于个人决策，群体决策有一些优点：(1)能更大范围地汇总信息；(2)能拟订更多的备选方案；(3)能得到更多的认同；(4)能更好地沟通；(5)能作出更好的决策等。但群体决策也有一些缺点，如花费较多的时间（群体决策的效率较低）、产生“从众现象”，以及责任不明等。适用范围对于复杂、重要和需有关人员广泛接受的决策问题，组织最好要采取群体的方式来制定决策。按决策者分类在实践中，群体决策往往转换为一系列个体决策来求解。6–25Decision-MakingConditions•Certainty（确定性）Asituationinwhichamanagercanmakeanaccuratedecisionbecau